One might ask why so much noise about a Mayor's election as making or breaking alliances is not new at the municipal or panchayat levels. But the Siliguri episode comes as the first big jolt to the fragile alliance. The ruling Left Front in Bengal is happy to have caused the first major dent in the Congress-TMC ties by helping the Congress form Siliguri Municipal board for which the TMC also staked claim.

What led to such a state of affairs? First of all, things were not hunky dory as the alliance between the TMC and the Congress was marked with suspicion and distrust right from the beginning. As the senior partner, Trinamool had asserted its rights which is not palatable to the Congress. Even after the Lok Sabha results proved that the alliance was a winner, the rumblings did not stop.

True, there was no problem at the time of government formation as Mamata did not demand even what was due to the TMC but the trouble started soon. Mamata began to dole out bonanzas to Bengal from the Railway Ministry. She set up her camp office in Kolkata and began functioning from there. She did not bother to attend the cabinet meetings nor did she support some of the government policies. For instance, she objected to the land reforms bill and disinvestment proposals brought by the UPA government. The Congress leadership yielded to her demands out of political compulsions.

The first major clash came when the Congress claimed at least one of the two seats in by-elections but Mamata got away taking both. The local congress leaders are said to be wary of her style of functioning and claim that her temperament and tantrums make it difficult to deal with her. The Congress is also worried about her growing political clout and fears that not only the Marxists but also the Congress may get washed away in the “Mamata wave” if she is not checked. Siliguri should be seen in this light as the Congress is unable to reconcile itself to the status of a junior partner.

What is the long-term strategy of the Congress? Its priority is to remain in power at the Centre. By taking the support of the left in Siliguri, the Congress has sent a signal to Mamata that if she has 19 M.Ps, the left has 24 M.Ps and the Congress can still do business with the left and dump the TMC.

Does the TMC have a strategy? No one knows. The TMC is riding high because of the growing popular support to Mamata. The party banks on the popularity of Mamata to get votes. She is also happy as things are going well for her so far. However, she will not take a minute to give up her cabinet post if she is provoked. Her track record shows that she had quit the Narasimha Rao ministry earlier; and during the NDA rule also, she had been in and out at her will. Mamata has to make up her mind about what she wants and how she should go about instead of taking impulsive decisions and throwing up tantrums. She should take note that the Siliguri affair has opened up possibilities of a Congress-Left rapprochement. It has also signalled a reversal of Prakash Karat's hard line policy of a complete breakdown in Congress-communist understanding. Could this be the beginning of a new relationship with the left parties? Could they again come together despite their fundamental differences in their approach to economic and foreign policies?

It may be too early to think of a complete break-up as both parties know that the mood is for a change in Bengal . Already doubts are being expressed about whether the alliance would continue until the 2011 Assembly polls. Both realise that together they can trounce the left but divided it may be difficult. Siliguri is a continuation of the anti-Left disenchantment that started rolling with the 2008 panchayat elections and may gather momentum during the civic polls in Kolkata and the districts. Secondly, all is not well with the CPI-M. Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya is still sulking after being blamed for the poll debacle and has been avoiding the CPI-M politburo meetings. There is a question mark over the prospects of his leading the party in 2011 as he threatens to quit. The left has been facing large-scale desertions from its ranks after the Lok Sabha defeat. However, Bhattacharya is also trying to assert himself. Siliguri could not have happened without his blessings. It is said to be a joint operation between Deepa Das Munshi and the Chief Minister to humiliate Mamata Banerjee..

Although the AICC pretends that it is a local affair, it could not have happened without the knowledge of the Congress leaders at the Centre. By accepting the Left's help, the Congress has also taken a gamble. No doubt, the Congress-TMC ties are getting shaky. In politics one week is said to be long. There are many more months to go before the 2011 Assembly polls. (IPA Service)