Of course, the State BJP leaders do not agree with this political formulation. There has been a sea-change in Kerala’s political landscape, they assert. In support of their argument they point to the party’s impressive performance in the Neyyattinkara by-election in which BJP candidate O Rajagopal polled an impressive 30,000-odd votes, a six-fold rise from its tall in the previous election, to the surprise of political pundits in the state and elsewhere.

The Neyyattinkara verdict, they contend, represents a paradigm shift in Kerala politics. It denoted a clear pro-BJP shift in the voters’ mood. That is the average BJP activist’s refrain. The Neyyattinkara by-election outcome provides the party with a platform to build on. So gush the BJP’s think tanks and spin-doctors.

The reality is somewhat different. True, there has been a big rise in BJP votes in the Neyyattinkara by-poll. But the BJP leaders will be deluding themselves if they take the surge in BJP’s vote percentage as a genuine accretion of the party’s electoral strength. Far from it! The BJP’s good show in Neyyattinkara can only be ascribed to the voters’ resentment against and disenchantment with the Congress-led United Democratic Front’s Government’s unabashed policy of minority appeasement. It was essentially a negative vote. The BJP’s gain can also be explained by the fact that a large number of voters opted to back Rajagopal because of his clean image. As soon as the UDF Government applies the necessary policy correctives, these voters will go back to their original constituencies. The earlier the BJP leaders realise this, the better for them.

Besides, the state unit of the BJP is a house divided against itself. The retention of V Muralidharan as the state BJP chief saw the eruption of a no-holds-barred factional feud. It was only the intervention of the RSS and the support of the central leadership that helped Muralidharan to retain the post. Understandably, the rivalry has left a trail of bitterness. And a number of senior state party leaders have only grudgingly accepted the fait accompli.

This is the backdrop against which Narendra Modi’s bid to emerge as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the next Lok Sabha election has to be viewed. He may have succeeded in securing the support of the BJP’s rank and file in Gujarat for his prime ministerial ambitions. He has also managed to have the endorsement of a number of senior BJP leaders of his candidature for the PM’s post. But that alone is not enough. The Modi brand of ‘development and governance’ has not gained much acceptance outside Gujarat, especially in Kerala. It is all the handiwork of a relentless propaganda blitz undertaken by the Modi supporters. In several areas of human development, Gujarat falls far behind many other states. This is an undeniable fact borne out by cold statistics.

Most importantly, Modi has done nothing so far to atone for the Gujarat riots that claimed the lives of thousands of innocent Muslims, post Godhra. No amount of development work or ‘good governance; can help him live down his anti-Muslim image.

This being the stark reality, Modi cannot expect to get any marked increase in support for him in Kerala, which has strong and impeccable secular credentials. It is also a fact that the minorities who form a sizable section of the voters in the state are in no mood to fall into the Modi trap. Attempts to shed his hawkish image and rebrand himself in the Vajpayee mould cannot fool the enlightened voters of the state.

Last but not the least, the Modi brigade has to reckon with the reality that Kerala is one of the three strongholds of the Left parties. Under no circumstances can Modi hope to get the support of the substantial left voters from the state. If it comes to a contest between Modi and Rahul, the left will certainly not back Modi despite its strong opposition to the policies of the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre. The first priority of the Left cannot be anything other than keeping off the communal forces from assuming power at the Centre. (IPA Service)