Now it is clear that Nitish has failed to put any pressure on BJP, so far as his demand regarding Narendra Modi is concerned. When he was addressing the rally in Ram Leela ground in Delhi, his deputy in his government Sushil Modi was declaring at Patna that he did not have any problems with Narendra Modi and the state unit of BJP would like Gujarat CM to be projected as Prime Ministerial candidate before Lok Sabha election, if the Party decides to do so. It should be mentioned that Sushil Modi has always discouraged the demand for Narendra Modi as PM. Once, he even went to the extent of declaring that Nitish Kumar was the better bet for that post. Whenever Nitish talked against Modi of Gujarat, Modi of Bihar never came to his rescue and that was left to the detractors of Sushil Modi like Ashwani Kumar Chaube, Giriraj Singh and CP Thakur to bat for the CM of Gujarat.

To keep Gujarat Modi down, Nitish was depending on the Bihar Modi to great extent and whenever the issue of campaign of Gujarat CM in Bihar came, he used to be quick to say that we have our own Modi (Sushil Modi) in Bihar and hence need no other Modi to campaign here. But now the Modi of Bihar has fallen in line with Narendra Modi. Not only it, he has also warned Nitish not to ride on the sinking ship of Congress, lest he himself will sink with the sinking Congress.

The hard hitting statement of Sushil Modi and the cordial meetings of Nitish with PM, FM and Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission have raised the political temperatures of Patna and it is believed that the days of BJP and JD(U) alliance are numbered and ultimately Nitish will ally with Congress. But still there are some people who believe that Nitish may not go to the extent of deserting BJP, which has given him the present position he enjoyed. Congress is in very bad shape in Bihar and it is fighting for its own existence in this state. It is hardly in a position to help its partner to win seats.

Again his own political stock of Nitish Kumar is on the decline. He had a lot to talk about his achievement during his first tenure, but in his second tenure, he has nothing to claim as his achievement. There is all round resentment against his government and he and his Dal have to lose more if anti incumbency factor becomes strong, because it was he who was taking all the credits for the achievements of his government in his first tenure.

Though, he is selling his special status demand to people of his state, the public has its own grievances. The administration and police are corrupt and people blame on the style or Nitish for that, because he has clipped the wings of politicians who used to be of some help for people to deal with the police and bureaucracy. Again the roads, he had built in his first tenure now need repairing and maintenance, which are not forthcoming. Some 3 lakh contractual teachers spread throughout the state are giving him sleepless nights and it is not possible for the government to fulfill their demands.

Worst news for Nitish is the increasing cases of abduction, kidnapping and other crimes, which had earlier shown a remarkable decline. The incidents of corruption into the flagship programs of rural employment and the less than adequate use of Central Assistance are also working against Nitish. In this scenario, it may not be wise for Nitish Kumar to leave the company of BJP, which has given him second political birth, when he was in political wilderness after loosing 1995 Assembly Elections in Bihar after dissociating from his Janata Dal in 1994.

Bihar is notorious for its caste politic and this politics is not very conducive at the moment for Nitish. His own castemen constitute hardly 2 percent of the state population and he got the present position only when non Yadav OBCs population deserted Lalu Yadav because of his politics of MY (Muslim Yadav) appeasement. BJP strengthened Nitish only to lure these voters towards it. Due to the opposition of Mandal quota by BJP during 1990s, the OBCs had turned against it. By projecting Nitish as CM candidate and giving his party more seats, BJP succeeded in marginalizing Lalu in Bihar.

Nitish is well aware of this caste politics. He knows that now most of the OBCs have also developed the same kind of apathy against him, which they had developed against Lalu. He also knows that if Narendra Modi is projected as its PM candidate, it will no longer need him to get OBCs votes, because from Bihar standard, Narendra Modi himself belongs to an OBC community. Nitish might be harping on the communal image of Narendra Modi for keeping him away from Bihar, but in fact it was the OBCs status of Gujarat CM, which was hurting him most.

LK Advani is equally unpopular among Muslims for his role in the movement against Babri Mosque and its demolition. Nitish had no hesitation in accepting him as PM candidate in 2009 elections, then why should he have objections against Narendra Modi? He has no answer to this pointed question. The reason is obvious. Advani cannot be used to get OBC votes of Bihar, but Narendra Modi can be used for that purpose and Nitish will loose his use for BJP.

Aware of this caste reality Nitish is playing regional card of special status to Bihar. He wants Bihari identity to outshine the caste identity of his state, when they go to the polling booths. Keeping this in mind, he embarked upon Adhikar Yatra and Rally to consolidate his own political position among the masses. How successful will be Nitish in his mission, is yet to be seen, but his dissociation with BJP is fraught with danger for his future politics. (IPA Service)