The BJP leadership was given the option to choose between its trump card Narendra Modi and a valuable ally the JD(U). Its preference appears to be Modi. The unspoken message was that Nitish Kumar and his party, the JD(U), would not accept Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the NDA in the next year’s Lok Sabha elections.

Nitish Kumar has laid down stringent criterion for NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate. According to him PM candidate should be someone with an inclusive politics respectful of India’s diversities, someone mindful of the special needs of backward states and minorities, someone like Atal Behari Vajpayee, someone who is not like Narendra Modi as he is seen today.

The BJP may not find an ally precisely for the same reason for which Nitish Kumar is against the saffron party. The potential allies—the BSP, TDP, TMC and BJD—will not join the NDA under Modi’s leadership, given the importance of Muslim votes in their respective states. Though the Congress is wooing JD(U) hard, having granted an economic passage of Rs.12,000 crores to Bihar, the chances of Nitish Kumar joining the UPA appear remote for obvious reasons. Nitish still considers Congress his party’s enemy but in the post-poll scenario, there is strong possibility of JD(U) becoming an ally of the Congress in the UPA.

With the departure of JD(U), the NDA will comprise only the Shiv Sena and Akali Dal, besides the BJP. These regional outfits are historically rooted in religious and linguistic chauvinism. Even Sena and Akali Dal are not favourably inclined towards Modi.

Fresh from his impressive victory in Gujarat assembly poll, having romped home for the third time, Narendra Modi, as of now, is the most popular leader, having charisma to catch votes. None in the BJP, and none in other parties, have Modi’s appeal but his appeal is only confined to Hindu votes. Despite Modi’s charm. the BJP is certain to loose in Karnataka and with this the saffron party will loose its foothold in the south.

Modi’s appeal will, therefore, remain confined only to north and one wonders if an ally-less BJP will get requisite numbers to emerge largest single-party in the Lok Sabha.

Apart from consolidating support for Modi in the Sangh Parivar, the Nitish Kumar episode also brought out the cracks in the BJP leadership over Modi. For, what happened has implications for leaders like L K Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Dr. Murlimanohar Joshi, each seen of his or her admirers as having strong credentials for leading the BJP into 2014 election. The BJP’s Parliamentary Board, which theoretically takes the final call on whom to project as PM candidate, appeared split over the issue.

How serious is the split? Not so serious as to jeopardize Modi’s candidature, it would seem. Some senior leaders are uncomfortable with the prospect of being overtaken by Gujarat CM, and to that extent the resistance to Modi has not disappeared, but they risk every possibility of getting overwhelmed by the counter tide.

The BJP seems aware that fighting election under Modi is not without risks—loss of allies, consolidation of Muslim votes against the party, hostility of liberal intelligentsia, and ruthless scrutiny of Gujarat Model—are some of risk factors. However, it is banking on his energetic espousal of effective governance, swift economic growth, jobs and a development-oriented agenda to attract middle India that the BJP had lost to the Congress in 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

The task is not easy as the BJP needs to cover a lot of ground and is hampered by geographical and social limits. As of now, BJP does not have a single MP from Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Apart from Assam, the party has drawn a blank in the Northeast.

In states like Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, BJP’s numbers are already high. It can improve only in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi and Uttarakhand. It needs new partners in Haryana, and Jharkhand. Karnataka seems a lost bastion while the Shiv Sena infighting has made Maharashtra shaky. (IPA Service)