It is after a gap of six months that New Delhi has revived the peace process in Jammu and Kashmir which had got derailed after the moderate Hurriyat chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq left the talks midway in 2006 under pressure from separatist hardliners. The hardliners had blamed the Mirwaiz for participating in the previous four rounds of talks first with the NDA regime and then with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh which proved unproductive.

Will New Delhi's initiative to revive the peace process yield a positive outcome? Will Pakistan be able to use international pressure to force India to resume the composite dialogue without honouring its commitments?

New Delhi's initiative covers a wide ground for talks on two counts. One. Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram has categorically declared that “the government will hold talks with every section of public opinion in Jammu and Kashmir through quiet dialogue, quiet diplomacy”. Two. He has announced that “the main responsibility of maintaining law and order is being given to the police. As and when the police is ready to take more and more responsibilities, it will be given.” The police, he said, would be assisted by the central paramilitary forces.

On the demand for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, he said: “Amendments to the controversial legislation have been finalized and when the Union Cabinet clears it, it will be applicable throughout the country including Jammu and Kashmir”.

Although moderate separatists have not yet clearly spelt out their stand on the Home Minister's offer for talks, they will face the risk of getting isolated if they reject the offer. They must realise that the separatists demand for “azadi” will never be on the talks agenda. The Centre may, however, consider the issue of autonomy within the framework of the Indian Constitution as demanded by the state's mainstream political opinion including Chief Minister Omar Abdullah.

The separatists cannot be oblivious of the fact that their limited influence is mainly confined to some sections of the Valley's population. They do not have bargaining clout. Though the hardliners have the capability of igniting violent incidents, the people are tired of violence and forced bandhs which affect their sources of livelihood. The people want peace, the possibility of which they must have started seeing in the sharp decline in terrorist violence as also infiltration.

The separatists also cannot ignore their limitations in pursuing their objectives. As Jammu and Kashmir is an integral unit, the Centre will have to give equal weight to the views of the people of Jammu and Ladakh regions on the issues forming the basis of talks. An overwhelming majority of the people of the two regions are against the separatists' agenda.

Besides, the separatists will also have to elucidate their attitude on issues concerning the Kashmiri Pandits who were forced to migrate from the Valley two decades ago. Without their participation, even backchannel diplomacy for finding a solution of the Kashmir problem will be one-sided.

Terrorists had tried to torpedo the peace moves in the past. The possibility of their again trying to sabotage the proposed peace talks through violent actions cannot be ruled out. But any such efforts cannot be on a large scale because of the setbacks they have received in the last couple of years.

Pakistan cannot be oblivious of these positive developments in the troubled state while mounting pressure on India for resuming the stalled composite dialogue. There are no two opinions that it is only through dialogue that all issues including the Kashmir souring the two countries relations can be resolved. But past experience shows that Pakistan's successive rulers have proved to be untrustworthy. They have always betrayed Indian leadership's confidence reposed in them for solving the problems through talks. First it was Atal Behari Vajpayee's much acclaimed 1999 Lahore bus journey for talks with Nawaz Sharif. Their talks roused hopes for normalisation of relations between the two countries. Knowledgeable circles later admitted that they were on the verge of solving the Kashmir problem when Pervez Musharraf indulged in his Kargil misadventure which, despite Sharif's denials, could not have taken place without his knowledge.

The second time Pakistan betrayed Indian leadership's confidence was when Pervez Musharraf and Manmohan Singh made considerable progress for solving the Kashmir problem. But the ISI-backed terrorist attacks in different parts of India again betrayed India's confidence and torpedoed the normalisation process.

Now Pakistan is persuading the Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia to pressure US President Barack Obama to push India and Pakistan to “fix” the Kashmir issue for his Af-Pak policy to make any progress. No doubt, it is not only in the US but also in India and Pakistan's interest to normalize their relations, particularly for countering the terrorists who have made Pakistan their main target and threatened India to be their second target. But as usual it is Pakistani leaders' double talk which is blocking resumption of the peace process.

Unless Pakistan stops use of its territory for terror attacks on India and punishes the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks, Manmohan Singh will find it impossible to engage himself in the peace process with Pakistan. It is for the US, Pakistan's “anndata”, to force its leadership to mend its ways to facilitate resumption of the peace process between India and Pakistan. (IPA Service)