The hurdle race has just begun. Modi has to become a unifying force rather than a divisive one within his own party. The immediate challenge is to mollify Advani and get the support of the others who are opposed to him. Advani has taken back his resignation but one has to see if he emerges stronger. A man of his stature will not forget this humiliation from a party that he had built up from the scratch.

The second hurdle is getting the support of the other aspirants in the party. There were other senior leaders like YashwantSinha, Uma Bharti and Jaswant Singh, who stayed away from the Goa meeting. They are waiting for a chance to see whether one of them could emerge as a dark horse at the proper time. They will be closely watching his performance. Modi has to prove that he will carry everybody along with him and find a role for each one of them. Although Modi’s supporters claim that with or without their support Modi could perform miracles in the next elections, it is common sense that their support is required. This is not an easy thing for Modi who is known for his arrogant style of functioning Moreover, how can the BJP face the electorate with a leader who is seen to be opposed by some in his own party?

Thirdly, will Modi be able to get the nomination from the NDA? What about partners like the JD(U)? If AdvanI continues to be the chairman of the NDA, will he not block Modi at the national level? Advani is a much more experienced and mature politician and he can find hundred ways of blockingModi at every level unless the former disciple tries to be on the right side of his erstwhile mentor.

Fourthly, it is clear that the NDA will break sooner than later under Modi’s leadership. The JD (U) will be the first to break away and may be the others will follow. In a coalition era, Modi knows that it is the arithmetic which works and not the chemistry. Is he capable of not only keeping the NDA flock together but also to expand the base of the alliance? Modi’s calculation is that if the BJP gets about 180 seats, the allies would come under its umbrella for the sake of power. The million-dollar question is whether he can get this many seats. The Modi magic is yet to be proved outside Gujarat. With the party almost reduced to zero in the entire south and northeast, where are the seats going to come from? Even in UP and Bihar, the party is not in a position to make up for loss of seats going by the present indications. His friendship with the AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa may be of help, but he has to find other political parties to join the NDA. Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee have already indicated their disinclination, while the Telugu Desamsupremo Chandra Babu Naidu would shrink away from aligning with a hardliner like Modi. Of course,Modi can think of wooing smaller partiers like the TelenganaRashtraSamithi. He is yet to show his abilities to strike alliance.

Fifthly, what would be his poll strategy? It is a strange contradiction that the BJP cadres are enthused because of his hardline image while Modi talks of development and Gujarat model of governance. He might have sold this combination in Gujarat, but will he be able to do so in the rest of the country? His social media strategy may attract the educated class but what about the masses?

The ironic thing is that it is the same media which vilified Modi for the Godhra riots is now going all out to project him as a national leader. Modi is depending on his novel campaign methods. Will Modi commit the same mistake which late BJP leader PramodMahajan did in 2004 on the ‘India Shining’ campaign? The problem is India has now several fiefdoms run by regional satraps. What sells in one state may not sell in another. The poll strategy has to be region specific.

All these would mean Modi’s success depends on several factors. One good thing is that he seems to have mended fences with the RSS, which is backing him fully. Secondly, he has the support of the corporate sector from the Tatas to Ambanis to Adanis. There should be no problem about funding. Thirdly, he may be able to attract the youth with his oratory and promises of jobs and good life. Fourthly, his success also may depend upon how the Congress-led UPA chalks out its poll strategy and whether any more skeletons tumble out of its cupboard.

It is just the beginning for Modi to not only market himself as a national leader but also the BJP and project it as an alternative. Congress bashing alone is not going to be effective. Above all, despite all the hype, Modi has to shed his Godhra baggage. Politics is perception and the perception about Modi is that he’s a Hindutva man.

There is this danger that the electorate may get fed up with the disunited BJP and truncated NDA and disenchanted with the UPA and may look for a third alternative consisting of some regional satraps who might come together to bid for power. (IPA)