The Congress, which was averse to a coalition, has come to accept it now. The UPA now has eight partners, including NCP, National Conference, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Indian Union Muslim League, Kerala Congress (Mani), Sikkim Democratic Front and All India Democratic Front. It has lost more than half a dozen partners in the last five years including the DMK and the TMC. The party’s vice president Rahul Gandhi, who experimented a “go for it alone” policy in UP and Bihar, has now come to realise the importance of a coalition as did his mother in 2004. Therefore, the Congress party has its grand plan of getting more allies on board. Eager to return to power for the third time, the party needs to have healthy alliances with new and old friends. The Congress' Jaipur Declaration called on all secular forces to unite in its ideological battle against divisive forces. A subcommittee under the chairmanship of Defence Minister AK Antony is working towards this goal of finding allies.

The states where the Congress is looking for alliances are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and some northeastern states.

In the Eastern region, the first thing the Congress wants to do is to get more number of states to its kitty. Right now there are 14 states where the party is ruling on its own or with allies. The Congress plans to back the JMM to form a government by next week ending the President’s rule. The two parties have struck a deal whereby the JMM leader Shibu Soren or preferably his son Hemant Soren will be the chief minister. The Congress in return would fight a chunk of the 14 Lok Sabha seats.

In Bihar, the Congress has already made overtures to the JD(U). Bihar is getting a financial package as demanded by Nitish Kumar. From the prime minister to some top party leaders have praised the secular credentials of Nitish Kumar. The Congress also supported the chief minister to win the recent confidence vote. Even if JD(U) does not become a pre poll ally, the Congress will be looking at a post poll scenario. As for the RJD which was supporting the Congress earlier, the Congress has not yet responded to Lalu Prasad’s overtures, even as he is making all out efforts to come back. However, the LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan could be an ally.

In Uttar Pradesh, there is no scope for an alliance with either the ruling SP or the main opposition BSP. Both parties want to fight it out making the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, irrelevant. There is of course scope for a post poll alliance as both the SP ands the BSP are supporting the UPA now.

In Bengal, there is a possibility of the TMC giving support in the post poll scenario. In Assam, the chief minister Tarun Gogoi has already made sure that the opposition, weaker with the AGP losing further ground, becomes irrelevant.

As far as Odisha is concerned, the Congress is trying to revive, but it has no leader of stature, thus leaving the field entirely to the BJD chief Naveen Patnaik. At the most, Congress can attempt to improve.

The Congress is also concentrating on the south. The first is Andhra Pradesh, which has given 33 seats to the Congress kitty in the 2009 polls. With the demand for a separate Telengana looming large, and the YSR Congress gaining ground in the state, the Congress may not do well in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha polls. Therefore, efforts are on to forge an alliance with the YSR Congress. If separate Telengana is given, the TRS too might merge with the Congress. The MIM could also be wooed. It is important for the Congress to not only win back the state but also get a good number of seats in the Lok Sabha polls.

Keeping the Lok Sabha polls in view, the Congress supported the candidature of the DMK chief’s daughter Kanimozhi acceding to the request of Karunanidhi. The Congress was also in touch with the DMDK chief Captain Vijayakanth eyeing a possible alliance. However, it chose the DMK which has 30 per cent vote share in comparison to the DMDK’s ten percent.

Compared to this, the NDA is still lagging behind. The earlier strategy of bringing anti Congress parties together will not succeed this time, as there is also a proposal to form a federal front. From a 24-partner alliance the NDA has now shrunk to just three allies including Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Haryana Janhit Congress. Although the BJP leader Advani has been talking of the NDA plus there are no signs of getting more allies after the JD(U) parted company last month. Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi may be a stumbling block to get new allies even in a post poll scenario. For instance, the BJP has been consistently trying to include the MNS into its alliance. But if Raj Thackeray comes in Sena will go out as the two cousins cannot co exist. In Haryana, the BJP is looking to lure Chautala who is in jail at the cost of losing Bishnoi. In Karnataka, since Modi has a good equation with former chief minister Yediyurappa, there are efforts to bring his KJP back but it may not be easy.

The alliance game has just begun. The Congress has got an advantage after its JMM alliance. The next few months will make it clear who gets more allies and who manages the arithmetic. (IPA Service)