Talking about political instability on the day Hooda starts his second term may look too unrealistic. But the issue warrants mention for two reasons. Haryana has a history of floor crossings which had earned the state not only the dubious title of Aya Ram Gaya Ram in the late sixties but had also destabilized governments and Chief Ministers. The state has also seen factionalism shortening tenures of Chief Ministers and ruling parties. The Assembly elections' fractured mandate has all the ingredients which could lead to tricky political situations for the ruling party during its second term.

The Congress and Hooda have assumed power with the support of seven Independents whose political loyalties will be fragile. Secondly, Hooda now faces a powerful group of party dissenters who campaigned against his return as Chief Minister. They even supported the six-member Bhajan Lal-led Haryana Janhit Congress's return to the Congress to stall Hooda's anointing as the CLP leader. Although his failing health may have affected his capacity to play political games, his reputation of being a manipulator having expertise to engineer defections his and his HJC's return to the Congress have so far been blocked. Bhajan Lal otherwise also nurses a grouse against Hooda and the Congress high command for denying him Chief Ministership after the 2005 elections which ultimately led to the father-son duo's exit from the Congress and formation of the HJP.

Though Hooda has foiled the attempts of his adversaries, both within and outside the ruling party, to stop his getting second term, he has emerged as a weakened Chief Minister. He will be vulnerable to pressures not only from within the ruling party but more from the Independents on whose support the ministry will have to survive. Such situations affect the quality of governance and Chief Minister's decision-taking authority and freedom.

The outcome of the elections also indicates some new trends which have the potential of affecting state's future politics. For instance, the Congress's massive victories in both the 2005 Assembly elections and last Lok Sabha elections were mainly due to its success in eroding the Om Parkash Chautala-led INLD's Jat support base. Its failure to secure a majority and getting only 40 seats now shows that Chautala has been able to regain a large part of his Jat support base, particularly in the state's south-western Bagri Jat belt. In fact, the party high command's anxiety to avoid losing Jats support seems to have also contributed to its retaining Hooda as Chief Minister. Hooda's grip over Deswal Jats in the old Rohtak region comprising his hometown of Rohtak, Jhajjar and Sonipat districts remained unchallenged and has helped him emerge as a Jat supremo.

The Assembly elections have exposed the myth at least in Haryana that development and doles alone can win votes. The outgoing Hooda government's widely acknowledged performance in development arena and the Chief Minister's giving freebies and generous doles which he started granting right from the beginning of his first term in 2005 have not helped the party to secure an absolute majority in the just concluded Assembly elections. His opponents both in the ruling party and the opposition have alleged that the party's failure to get majority is partly due his giving preference for Rohtak-centric developments and discriminating against the state's other regions. Their charge is partly true. But not only Hooda but Haryana's all past Chief Ministers have also been concentrating on developing their home constituencies. Besides, the Rohtak region has been Hooda's strong bastion. Even when he was not in power he had twice defeated Devi Lal in Lok Sabha elections from the area.

Another challenge Hooda faces is in the administrative arena. In his first term he proved to be a weak administrative. Though decision-making during his regime was fast but the implementation of the decisions was tardy and the delivery system was faulty and poor. For governance his reliance was solely on the bureaucracy which added to his image of being a poor administrator.

Another area in which he faces challenge is how to contain corruption, particularly at the cutting edges in the districts and even among the lower ranks of the administration where the writ of Assistants and Superintendents runs. Even government employees are generally not able to get their genuine personal jobs done and avail their sanctioned facilities without greasing the palms.

Haryana's post-election scenario will put a greater responsibility on the Opposition, particularly on Chautala who has been able to resurrect his party from threatened wilderness had it failed to secure an impressive strength of 31seats. Chautala will have to keep the Congress government on its toes particularly in view of the fact that it as well as Chief Minister will now be vulnerable. For this, the opposition will also have greater responsibility for making the Assembly more functional and result-oriented.

Haryana's politics is heading for volatile and interesting times which may see making and unmaking of political fortunes of the rulers and the opposition. (IPA Service)