It is clear enough that the choice of Modi was due not only to the sudden enthusiasm of the RSS for a person who was not its favourite earlier because of his propensity to follow his own counsel, but also because of the preference expressed for him by the cadres and the urban middle class. The latter’s support was not unexpected since the BJP itself is essentially a party of this particular social category.

It is noteworthy that this is exactly the group, which had rooted vociferously for Anna Hazare in 2011, so much so that a section of the media had compared the popular acclaim to the Arab Spring. An overwhelming majority of Anna’s supporters comprised the upper caste Hindus belonging to the well-to-do urban middle class with little place in the movement for minorities or the backward castes. It is also worth remembering that the tide in favour of the moral crusader ebbed as abruptly as it had begun.

The BJP may not experience a similar withdrawal symptom because of its organizational structure. But, the quirkiness of the urban Hindu middle class is well known. It is this group whose support for the Emergency made Indira Gandhi boast about the absence of protests to her and her son, Sanjay’s, draconian rule. Yet, when the time came for all sections of the population to express their resentment and anger, they did so in unequivocal terms. It was the poorer sections and the minorities, who bore the brunt of Sanjay’s sterilisation drive, who voted in droves against the Congress.

Therefore, the crowds, which Modi may draw in the towns, may not be a reliable indicator of his electoral strength. Moreover, as earlier opinion polls have shown, his popularity in the south is markedly less than what it is in the north and the west. The limitations, therefore, of Modi’s appeal are evident. Its impact is yet to be genuinely tested in the rural areas as well as in the south, the east and the northeast.

The comparisons which are sometimes made about how Modi may replicate Atal Behari Vajpayee’s achievement in attracting enough allies to cross the hurdle of 272 seats cannot be taken seriously. First of all, Modi does not have the across-the-board appeal of the BJP’s one and only prime minister, who had chided Modi for not following raj dharma during the riots of 2002. Secondly, the ‘modern-day Nero’, to quote the Supreme Court’s description of Modi, cannot dream of putting together an alliance of 24 parties which Vajpayee did till many of them walked out in the aftermath of the riots.

The most which Modi can lure to his parlour from outside the three-member NDA are three or four parties – the AIADMK, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Of these, the AGP and the INLD have lost much of their earlier clout, with the latter having been hobbled by the incarceration of its leaders. Moreover, as Vajpayee found out, Jayalalithaa is not the most tractable of allies. Nor are H.D. Deve Gowda and his son, H.D. Kumaraswamy.

The Congress, in contrast, is somewhat better placed. While its present combination of allies within and outside the UPA is likely to remain more or less the same, there may be a few additions like the Janata Dal (United), whose proximity to the Congress will mean that the latter will have achieved the near-impossible task of mellowing the rivalry of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav to a considerable extent.

There will also be a rickety Third Front, comprising the Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, the Telugu Desam, the YSR Congress and others. But, their neutrality along with that of the Left should help the Congress. What will also help it is a sign of economic recovery since one reason why the middle class has drifted away from the Congress is the prevailing stagflation, which has led to job losses and raised the fear of economic difficulties for the consumerist mall-and-multiplex crowd.

For the BJP, the forthcoming assembly elections can also pose problems. If the party fares well, then successful chief ministers like Shivraj Singh Chauhan may resent having been sidelined by a pushy aspirant and a party president meekly following the diktats of the RSS. But, if the party stumbles, Modi will be held responsible for scaring away the minorities. In such an event, his selection can seem jinxed since it took place on Friday the 13th, which the superstitious regard as ominous. (IPA Service)