Big business appears to be betting on Congress despite the controversy over the CBI’s naming of Kumar Mangalam Birla in its FIR in the coal block allocation case. However, the mood of those really matter, the common man, seems to be running against Congress. Big business is clearly concerned. The economic slow-down has substantially eroded its market value and fund raising capacity. The business community seems to be more concerned about the outcome of the five state elections as it is being seen as a final political dress rehearsal for next year’s Lok Sabha (LS) polls.

Of the five states, the first four holds the country’s economic pulse with Delhi being the pivot. It is India’s single largest consumption centre of goods and services. Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh have witnessed large investments in infrastructure and core sectors, including power, mining and quarrying, in recent years. Mizoram represents the general mood of the north-east, a fast emerging market for national and international eco-tourism. The business community is generally comfortable with the current dispensation – Delhi, Rajasthan and Mizoram under Congress rule and MP and Chhattisgarh under BJP.

Poll pundits, however, predict no easy run for Congress, this time. Not even in Delhi and Rajasthan where Congress faces incumbency factor. A government change in Delhi and Rajasthan at this stage may signal a major political shake-up later at the national level. The return of an ultranationalist party such as BJP or a Left-supported group of regional parties may change the course of economic reform which recently received a renewed boost with the government allowing foreign control and equity participation in a host of hitherto restricted sectors.

The political upheaval in Andhra Pradesh (AP) over its proposed split into two states is already giving sleepless nights to Congress leadership and also many foreign and domestic investors. Andhra has been the largest and most preferred destination of US investors (FDI) in India, including Coca-Cola. Several top US institutional investors (FIIs) are involved in large-scale project finance in AP. The latest flash strike by 30,000 power sector employees in protest against the proposed division of the state had unnerved the industry which suffered a big loss. AP boasts the largest Congress representation in Lok Sabha (LS) from any state – 33 out of the party’s 206 LS seats.

The government granted Telengana’s statehood ahead of LS polls hoping the combined Congress score from the two Telugu-speaking states would be even higher. But, now, rather unpredictably, Congress suddenly faces voter wrath even in Telengana. Its political fortune in bifurcated Andhra looks like getting reversed overnight. A recent pre-poll survey suggested the party might get only ten seats or even fewer, all from Telangana. That could prove costly for Congress. Congress will be further weakened if it fails to keep Delhi and Rajasthan, which go to polls in December. The assembly polls results are scheduled to be announced by December 8.

Will corruption be made a key election issue by Congress rivals? Most unlikely, feel many influential business leaders. “Few political parties are above corruption. Not even the Marxist Party (CPM), a top West Bengal leader of which is currently facing corruption charges in joint sector land deals during his period as a minister. He could be arrested anytime,” pointed out a Kolkata businessman. Even a ubiquitous secular stamp may not carry enough weight to see a party through in the coming polls. On the contrary, price rise of essential commodities, increasing unemployment and shrinking organised sector jobs, drinking water scarcity, higher power tariff and black-outs, bad roads, poor sanitation, high healthcare cost, dipping value of money, growing criminalization of society, rising sexual attacks on women, sloppy justice system and other local issues may.

The Election Commission’s (EC) proposed introduction of NOTA (None of the Above) clause, following a Supreme Court directive, in the five state elections, its decision to dispatch ‘Sankalpa Patra’ to voters through schools and colleges asking them to commit that they won’t miss voting and distribution of voter slip carrying photo identity to check the menace of false voting are likely to bear an impact on the poll results, which is not easy to predict as all of them will be tested for the first time in the country’s polling process. The EC is also working on a project to increase women's participation in polling.

The new EC initiatives can make or break Congress’ chances in the five state elections. It is a gamble the party is ready to play. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s jail, withdrawal of the disproportionate assets (DA) cases by CBI against Ms. Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav and CBI’s bid to implicate BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and his majordomo, former Gujarat home minister Amit Shah, in Ishrat Jehan ‘fake’ encounter case, declaration of Bihar and Odisha as India’s most ‘backward’ states entitling them special financial status, the food security act and announcement of the seventh pay commission to benefit about 80-lakh government employees are being interpreted as part of the Congress party’s desperate bid to improve its electoral fortune in states and to retain power at the centre.

While the government is belatedly making an all-out attempt to improve the performance of the economy, reduce budget, trade and current account deficits, raise infrastructure spending and restore investor confidence before the anticipated May 2014 LS polls, the results of the five state elections will partly test the success of the Congress party’s well-crafted election strategy and will also probably design the future of the country’s economy and polity.

Can a new, non-Congress government at the Centre turn the tables? The Asian Development Bank thinks India’s GDP would grow by 5.7 per cent next year no matter who leads the national government. However, the current policy bottleneck to growth is unlikely to disappear magically after the elections. The country continues to be the sinkhole for the world's gold. The food security act has not arrested food prices, which continue to be very high. The government has resigned itself to the Rupee trading at around 62 to 65 to the US Dollar. And, they all will make 'complete nonsense' of personal finances of common people. But as one paraphrased Rahul Gandhi: ‘it's time to wise up to the 'political line' that India will be an economic juggernaut.’(IPA Service)