Since its formation 57 years back, no other party, barring the BJP (and its earlier avatar Jansangh) could ever form government in the state. The two parties share between them 211 of the 230 assembly seats and all the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The Congress has ruled the state for 39 of its 57-year existence. Since the state's formation, it is for the first time that the Congress has been out of power for 10 years (2003-13) at a stretch. In fact, no non-Congress government could complete its term in the state till, in 2003, the BJP, under the leadership of its stormy petrel Uma Bharati, demolished the erstwhile Congress citadel of Madhya Pradesh, riding on the 'Bijli-Sadak-Pani' plank.

The BJP government not only completed its full term but also returned to power in the 2008 elections. All earlier non-Congress governments, whether SVD (1967-69), Janata Party (1977-80) or BJP (1989-1992) had to go before completing their full term for different reasons.

In 2008, though the number of seats of the Congress went up but that was no consolation for the party. No wonder, this time round, the Congressmen are desperate to grab power in the state. Even contemplating a third successive defeat is enough to send shivers down their collective spine. What, however, is worrisome for the Congress is the fact that it has lost every single Assembly by-election in the state since 2008. And most of these by-polls took place in the constituencies which were annexed by the Congress in 2008 polls. On the other hand, brimming with confidence, the BJP is readying itself for a no-holds-barred effort to form the government for the third time in a row.

Those in the know feel that the Congress can easily increase its tally in the Vidhan Sabha, provided it overcomes the division in its ranks—something that had cost it heavily in the last assembly polls. It could win only 70 seats, less than half of the BJP’s tally of 143. But even that was an improvement on the 2003 assembly polls when the Congress had to remain content with only 38 seats - its lowest-ever tally.

The BJP is hoping for a hat trick on the strength of the popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan, who has been the chief minister of the state for 8 years now. The state BJP, more or less, stands united behind Chauhan. With the sole exception of Uma Bharati, no state BJP leader is in a position to even remotely challenge Chauhan.

No one can question Chauhan's personal popularity. He is seen as a down-to-earth politician, genuinely interested in working for the welfare of the vulnerable sections of the society. For the last more than a year, he has been showering goodies on every section of the society. Government employees, farmers, students, dalits, women, the poor, tribals – none were forgotten. If it meant straining the state's resources to the limit, so be it. For the first time in the last two decades, the rate of DA of the state government employees is at par with their Central government counterparts. The power bills of farmers have been waived off. The students have got their laptops and the BPL families are getting Wheat and Rice for Re 1 and Rs 2 per kg respectively. Medicines are being distributed free-of-cost from government hospitals and power cuts have become a thing of the past.

On the flip side, there are corruption charges galore on BJP leaders. The BDS and PMT scams have exposed the rot in the educational set-up of the state. The Mining scam, involving businessmen close to the BJP – who had turned billionaires overnight – has also served to dent the party's image. Then, there is anti-incumbency against the party MLAs and Ministers. The party has axed around 50 sitting MLAs, including three Ministers, in a bid to stem the anger against the corrupt practices

As for the Congress, the party high command was keen to project Union Minister of state Jyotiraditya Scindia – a young, handsome leader with a clean image and formidable popular base in the Gwalior region – as its chief ministerial candidate.

The party high command, choosing the second best option has nominated Scindia as the chief of the party campaign committee and he is now touring the state, taking aggressive stance against the ruling party and drawing sizeable crowds. Scindia's entry into the electoral arena has made things a bit difficult for the BJP. Earlier, the party was planning to make a comparison between the tenure of Digvijay Singh and Chauhan as its key poll plank. But that has slipped out of its hands now and it has little, if anything, to say against Scindia.

The process of withdrawal of nominations is complete and both the parties are now in the thick of the campaigning.

Though almost all pre-poll surveys have indicated that the BJP will be ruling the state for the next five years, but then, wide divergence between the results of the poll surveys and those of the actual polls is not unheard of in our country. (IPA Service)