UPA-II blotted its record so thoroughly it has few sympathisers acrossthe political spectrum including its erstwhile ally in power-sharing, like DMK, which sees the writing on the wall and is considering whether it could have other option for the Lok Sabha battle, even BJP which seems to be trying to get closer to all non-Congress parties. Even within Congress, murmurs of total disconnect between leadership and the people, especially the youth, are getting louder.

The Tamil Nadu Congress is run by two factions led by Mr G K Vasan and Mr P Chidambaram and the party has no strong base to stand on its own. Both DMK and AIDMK are holding crucial meetings on December 15 and 19 respectively to chart out strategy for the Lok Sabha poll.

AIDMK of Ms.Jayalalithaa, boosted by its massive win in Yercaud (Salem) byelection on Dec.4, looks to capturing most, if not all, of the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu including one of Puducherry. Chief Minister Jayalalithaa said the victory in Yercaud would be “a harbinger of revolutionary changes” the party planned to usher in after the Lok Sabha polls. She has urged the party cadres to strive for the party’s maximum haul and enable AIDMK to play a key role in regime change at the Centre.

In a direct contest with AIDMK in Yercaud, Mr Karunanidhi had hoped his nominee would upset ruling AIDMK candidate Ms.P. Saroja and thus help revive DMK’s fortunes in the upcoming national poll, the outcome of which would determine whether DMK can continue to keep its voice at the Centre.

Political realignments in Tamil Nadu are yet to take a firm shape but BJP which has not even been a marginal player in elections here so far, now hopes to capitalise on the anti-Congress swing and try and build an alliance with willing state-level parties. The meteoric rise of Mr Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP – wedded to “clean politics” and sweeping the polls in Delhi, reducing Congress to a single-digit entity in the 70-member Assembly, has generated national exuberance.

AAP, which expects to spread itself and fight Lok Sabha elections in select centre, is already viewed as an intimidating force of political change. It cannot be easily ignored by regional parties which would now work to maximise their winning space for a stake in power at the Centre.

Despite a clear lead BJP has gained in the electoral race in states, irrespective of whatever appeal that Mr Narendra Modi, its Prime Ministerial candidate could have made,, it could still fall short of a

commanding lead to be able to form the next government. In combination, regional parties might score better than either of the two national parties. But a cobbling of these parties into a ‘Third Front’ could only be a post-poll phenomenon.

State-level alliances are not taking shape yet. In Tamil Nadu, the CPI(M) and CPI are agreeable to align themselves with AIDMK and leaders of these parties have had meetings with Ms.Jayalalithaa. AIDMK for its part had made it clear some time back that it would align neither with BJP nor the Congress.

Mr Karunanidhi has the option of choosing either of the two parties and does not seem to be ready for “going it alone”. He is not “thrilled” by the Congress performance and he has his quarrels with the Centre, the latest one being the way the JPC Report on Telecom was presented to Lok Sabha, without a dissenting note of former DMK Telecommunications Minister Mr A Raja.

Asked about alliance prospects for DMK with Congress or BJP, the canny Mr Karunanidhi said he had not begun discussing whom DMK should align with. While the DMK Council is expected to take some decisions on December 15, a majority of district level workers seem to feel that, given the “anti-Congress mood” in the country, reviving alliance with Congress could prove disastrous for the party.

Two developments have dramatically altered the prospects for the party, to its great discomfiture – the change of government in Tamil Nadu since 2009 and Ms.Sonia Gandhi’s rash decision on bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. Ms.Jayalalithaa's AIDMK in Tamil Nadu ousted the DMK Government led by Mr Karunanidhi in 2011 and has maintained its popularity through both its welfare-oriented and infrastructural programmes. It is emboldened by the huge byelection victory to claim it as signal for its dominance in the Lok Sabha elections.

It is the Sri Lankan Tamil problem with the Colombo Government’s denial of their rights and provincial autonomy that has dominated the political discourse in Tamil Nadu. Ms.Jayalalitha has all along been upfront on raising this issue with the Prime Minister while Mr Karunanidhi tries hard to match rival leader’s championing the cause of Tamils in Sri lanka. Both parties successfully halted the Prime Minister’s attendance at the November meeting in Colombo of Commonwealth Prime Minisiters.

Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram has also been doing a “catch-up”, on Tamils in Sri Lanka, apparently with an eye on the elections. He called for a probe in a transparent manner into the widely reported “genocide” committed by the Sri Lankan army in the 2009 war against the Tamils. The Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh wisely did not heed Mr Chidambaram’s advice to visit Jaffna and meet Tamil leaders.

In Andhra Pradesh, mass agitation in the Seemandhra region was triggered by the Congress President Ms.Sonia Gandhi’s decision on bifurcation to create Telengana, solely guided by political motive of salvaging the party in the only state which ensured the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats in 2009. Apparently, her calculation was at least to gain most of the 17 Telengana seats but this also been thrown into doubt by leaders of the Telengana Rashtra Samiti.

Seemandhra has been on the boil for over two months and Congress MPs from the region had gone to the extent of proposing a 'no-confidence' motion against the UPA Government. A P Chief Minister Mr Kiran Kumar Reddy has openly revolted against the division of the State while a forceful anti-division campaign had been mounted by Mr Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and even more strongly by the YSR Congress led by Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy. Mr Reddy has met all regional party leaders to mobilise their support to vote against the Telengana bill.

The bill from the Union Cabinet was sent to the President who has referred to the State Assembly. Congress MLAs hope to defeat the bill when it is tabled in the Assembly. Whether the UPA would be able to introduce the bifurcation bill and get it voted in the dysfunctional state of the winter session of Parliament has also become doubtful.

There is no doubt that the Congress would be paying a heavy political price in both regions of Andhra Pradesh, thanks to Ms. Sonia Gandhi, who is to make 'deep introspection' on where all things have gone wrong with the Congress. A sliver of comfort could come from Congress-ruled Karnataka with around 15 to 18 seats. (IPA Service)