The future of the present Kejriwal government is uncertain, but not the future of his Aam Admin Party. There is enough space for it, particularly in the Hindi heartland states of UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and Haryana. Along with Delhi, these states have 151 Lok Sabha seats. The elections of these states are being decided by the caste politics played by almost all parties taking part in them since Independence, but during 1960s, the caste factor became more dominant because of Ram Manohar Lohia. The movement against reservations in 1978 further effected caste polarization. In 1990, the polarization got sharpened after the announcement of implementation of some recommendations of Mandal Commission by VP Singh. Now many leaders belonging to OBCs and Dalit emerged on national as well as state levels.

One generation has passed since the Mandal movement and in this period, the leaders and parties espousing the cause of OBCs and Dalits have benefitted a lot. They have been in power either in centre or in states and some of them have enjoyed power at both levels of government. The alliance politics has helped him to empower them and their families in a big way, but the same politics of alliance has also forced him to dilute their commitment towards their political support base. They were indulging in caste politics only to benefit themselves and there relatives.

Now their caste politics has degenerated into their dynastic politics. Before 1990, they were fighting against the dynastic politics of Nehru Gandhi family, but they themselves have now indulged in the same kind of politics. Nitish Kumar being exception, all OBC and Dalit leaders are promoting their relatives in politics and perpetuating the system, they were fighting against earlier. The dynastic politics has become so dominant in almost all parts of India, that we can define our democracy as a dynastic democracy.

The resentment against this dynastic politics has created enough space for a party like AAP, which not only talks of Aam Aadmi, but its leaders are also behaving like Aam Aadmi. The dynastic leaders may have their own caste and caste formations, but they are no longer Aam Aadmi. In fact, the newly formed party of Kejriwal has redefined many political terms of our democracy.

Delhi is the only growth centre of Hindi speaking states and people belonging to these states have settled there in vast number. This is the reason, why Mayawati, Mulayam and Nitish took great interest in Delhi elections. Lalu Yadav was in jail; hence his RJD did not fight Delhi elections seriously. The result shows the disenchantment against the leaders of Hindi heartland, who campaign for their candidates.

BSP of Mayawati had earlier bagged two Assembly seats and 14.5 percent of total votes polled. Hence it was emerging as the third force in Delhi. But this election proved disastrous for her and her party. BSP drew a blank and what was more sorrowful for Mayawati that her party could get only 5 percent of total votes polled. Her support base shifted towards Aam Aadmi Party and AAP won 9 out of 12 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes. His government has two Scheduled Caste Ministers. AAP hold on Scheduled Caste voters can be seen at the defeat of Ch. Prem Singh of Congress, who had unique distinction of not losing a single election since 1957 and this achievement of his has enabled him to find his name in Guinness Book of World Records.

It is not only the SC voters, but also Babus of New Delhi voted for Kejriwal. New Delhi constituency had 80 per cent of their votes as government servants and their family members. Kejriwal defeated Sheila Dikshit by a margin or around 26 thousands. He got votes more than the combined votes of Sheila Dikshit and Vijendra Gupta of BJP.

What has happened in Delhi can be repeated in the Hindi heartland too. The only weakness is the lack of organization. In Delhi, too, AAP was organizationally weak, but still its leaders could manage the things. But, to fight Lok Sabha elections, it lack leaders too. There is danger that dubious character leaders may join this party to fight elections and it would be difficult for its leaders to recognize who are fair and who are foul. So putting maximum number of candidate, without knowing the precedents, AAP may harm its reputation of a party with difference.

Anyway, it seems that AAP is going to field maximum number of candidates. Congress may be pleased to see BJP candidates getting defeated by its main rivals by loosing some of its votes to AAP candidates. But it is wrong to suggest that AAP will only harm the prospects of BJP. In Delhi, too, the Congress leaders were happy earlier to think that AAP will damage BJP and it will result in the victory of Congress candidates. Congress may be wrong in its assessment in the Lok Sabha as well. In fact the support base of Congress, JD(U), RJD, SP and BSP are more vulnerable to the onslaught of AAP. Disenchantment of the support bases of these parties is higher, while BJP is able to keep its flock on its own side. In Delhi, we have seen that AAP has damaged Congress and BSP more. The same thing can be repeated in Lok Sabha elections too. BJP is more concerned over the rise of AAP, because it was taking its win in Lok Sabha elections for granted. Now, it has to rethink its strategy. (IPA Service)