Expectedly, the apex court will give its verdict very soon, as over a month had been wasted by the parties, engrossed in intra-party groupism in sending nominations for CA under the proportional allocation. All the three major parties in the CA, Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) and United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) are afflicted with bitter schism.

Now with the CA chairman’s initiative in resuming the process of making on Constitution for a balanced and equity-based democratic order, there is a flicker of optimism is Nonetheless, a canopy of uncertainty hangs over the political firmament of land-locked Himalayan kingdom.

The two major parties the NC and the UML with 196 and 196 seats, respectively, which need to come together in instilling a dynamism in the CA failed so far to see eye to eye after the November elections. The NC made overtures to the UCPN (Maoist) on government formation asserting that it could end the impasse without CPN(UML).Small wonder, decimated as it may seen with its directly elected CA members falling from 120 to 26, has conveyed its nod to join the government . Its leader Haribol Gajurel said in Kathmandu on Saturday “We are ready to join the government if it assists in statute drafting process and ensures the constitution within a year”.

But political theorists and academics are mostly keen on the outcome of the next central committee meeting of bitterly faction-ridded United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). However, it is unlikely that the party chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal a k a Prachanda will step down, not at least immediately. Prachanda’s two main rivals, Dr Baburam Bhattarai and Narayan Kaji Shrestha, who resigned from the post of vice-chairman nearly a year ago, may reconsider their decision to place the alternate document against the main document placed by the chairman, although the draft alternate document is with most of the CC members.

The chairman in his paper proposed a crucial revision in the agenda that in the near future may force the leadership to convene plenum as Prachanda diagnosed the reason for the party´s electoral debacle in proper placing of the issue of ´nationalism´. UCPN (Maoist)’s official spokesman told a select group of newspersons, “Our party was weak in building its organization and we participated in elections without adopting the political line passed by the general convention. These played an important role in the poll defeat. ”

The party chief has staged a tactical retreat by conceding that the party’s deficit in addressing nationalism and ethnic identities was the main reason for social distancing from a large section of people in a multi-ethnic society. He has done this to keep the dissidents partly in good humour. He bluntly suggests a massive reshaping of the federal outlook of Maoists by emphasizing ethnicity-based identity alongside incorporation of demands of all caste groups to diffuse regionalism. The agenda of nationalism of Maoists is weaker than those of Nepali Congress and CPN(UML), according to the document, says polit bureau member Haribol Gajurel. The paper proposes “a fresh campaign for nationalism and patriotism.

The likelihood of acceptance of new line being in view, resulting in a decision to embark on an extensive reorientation programme, Bhattarai and Shrestha may not press for a debate on their alternate document and they even may withdraw it for the time being.. They will wait for the repercussion in the rank and file. Another reason for this change of stance is the proposal to dissolve the party state committees and keep only three tiers of party structure, including central, district and local level committees. This is what the two leaders have been demanding in the inner-party debate. Which is why the two leaders respond positively to the request from the party’s central advisory committee not to press for circulation of the alternate document. At the end of a two-day meeting, the panel has urged the party brass to place a single political document acceptable to all the top leaders of CC. The top brass agreed to develop a system of handing over the party leadership after a certain period of time, meaning step-down by Prachanda.

Bhattarai and Shrestha sent a rider to the advisory panel on the political document expressing some strong reservations on the document. They want a threadbare discussion on the causes for organizational decline. 'We have offered our suggestions to the chairman. Whether we will present a separate political paper at the CC meeting largely depends on whether Dahal is ready to incorporate our suggestions in his paper,' a CC member, close to Dr Bhattarai told a senior journalist. In his paper Dahal emphasized a reconnect between the party and “the downtrodden, underprivileged and marginalized communities”, but the cynics banter this as a posture of Dahal whose image has been tarnished beyond recognition. “Kamal Dahal wants to remain at the helm through such acrobatics we are very much accustomed with”, one of them reportedly said after a casual reading of the document.

The UCPN (Maoist) supremo, realising the gravity of organizational crisis, suggested reconstruction of party committees and revamp of the party organization and a self-criticism of past mistakes plus rectification thereof. But dissidents consider his gesture as disingenuous, although the Bhattarai-Shrestha group is not free from ‘elitist aberrations’.

The Communist Party of China has showed keen interest in helping its fraternal party rid of the imbroglio. Its international department, having responded to suggestions from a small section in the CC, unattached to either of the two factions, took an initiative to take back the split away CP of Nepal (Maoist), led by Mohan Vaidya who branded Prachanda and Bhattarai as ‘reformists’. The bitter shock in the CA polls made the ultras realize that the split was one of the reasons for the near- catastrophic performance. The milieu is reset as both the UCPN (Maoist) and CPN(Maoist) leaders are not averse to initiation of a dialogue and deliberations for reunification. The second-in-command at the CPC’s international department, Ai Ping, a vice-minister of China too was in Beijing. But he made it clear that CPC would not interfere with organizational issues of the party while assuring them of ‘material assistance’.

Needless to stress, Beijing wants a stronger UCPN(Maoist) to reemerge to take on the reenergized American influence in the Himalayan region. The Chinese alert began even before the CA polls. In June 2013, a Chinese state councilor, Yang Jiechi, made efforts to bring two factions for dialogue. Ma Jiali, executive deputy director, Center for Strategic Studies of China, too suggested that reunification of both the factions would be mutually beneficial as the UCPN (Maoist) confronts serious external and internal challenges after the defeat in the election.(IPA Service)