Modi has been targeting the government's failure on all fronts and terming it as 'policy paralysis.'
Chidambaram claimed that despite the years of turbulance (2012 and 2013) very few countries like India could 'keep their heads above the water.' The economic growth for the country in the year 2013-14 will be 4.9%, taking into account the 4.8% growth in the second quarter and the expected growth rate in the third and fourth quarter at at least 5.2%.
The fiscal deficit for 2013-14 will be contained at 4.6% of the GDP, well below the 'red line' he had drawn. The revenue deficit for 2013-14 remains the same as that in the previous year at 3.3%, but the effective revenue deficit has marked an increase from 1.8% to 2.2%.
However primary deficit has marked a decline from 1.5% to 1.3% in 2013-14.
The current account deficit that threatened to exceed last year's level of $ 88 billion, will be contained at $15 billion. About $15 billion is expected to be added to the country's foreign exchange reserves by March end, this year. The WPI headline inflation which stood at 7.3% in January last year sobered down to 5.05% by January end, this year. Likewise the core inflation decline from 4.2% to 3% in the same period.
The fiscal year 2013-14 will end with an estimated merchandise export of $326 billion, indicating a growth of 6.3%.
The finance minister has claimed that with the efforts of the government, RBI and SEBI measures were taken to ensure capital inflows and stabilise foreign exchange market. Among emerging economy currencies, the rupee was affect least when actual depriciation took place in December 2013 and January 2014.
Listing the indicators of economic growth, Chidambaram denied any evidence of policy paralysis. 'I reject the argument of policy paralysis. Just as there are business cycles, there is a cycle around the trend growth rate of an economy,' he said and put up a brave face saying that trend in growth has begun from second quarter.
Even after slowdown, the savings rate was 31.3% in 2011-12 and 30.1% in 2012-13. There was no steep decline in investment, except in mining and manufacturing. The investment rate was 35.5% in 2011-12 and 34.8% in 2012-13. The government through the Cabinet Committee on Investment and Project Monitoring Group could take swift decisions to clear 296 projects with an estimated investment of Rs 660,000 crore by January end.
Chidambaram took a dig at the erstwhile BJP-led NDA government, saying that average annual GDP growth in the period 1999-2004 was 5.9%, which is below the trend rate. Over a period of 33 years, the trend growth rate has been 6.2%. In UPA-I regime in 2004-09, the average annual GDP growth picked up to be at 8.4% and in the UPA-II regime (2009-14) going by the CSO estimate it will be 6.6%.
Chidambarm claimed that in the next three decades, India's nominal GDP will take the country to the third rank after US and China. As the Global Risks 2014 report has mapped 31 global risks, Chidambaram gave a 10 point vision in the form of Chidnomincs for the future which includes containing fiscal deficit at 3% of the GDP by 2016-17, bridging current account deficit by encouraging foreign investment, price stability and growth, implementing the recommendations of the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commissions, new financial structures for infrastructure projects, encouraging manufacture-for-exports by waiving off or rebating taxes and having minimum tariff protection against imports, subsidies to the deserving, rebuilding cities with a new model of governance, skill development, more central allocations for defence, railways, national highways and telecommunications.
Citing the compulsions associated with an interim Budget before the polls, Chidambaram said : 'In keeping with the conventions, I do not propose to make any announcements regarding changes to the tax laws.' He left direct taxes untouched, but slashed excise duty on cars, SUVs and two-wheelers, and capital goods and consumer durables to boost manufacturing and growth. He proposed reduction of excise duty from 12% to 10% for capital goods and consumer non-durables falling under chapter 84 and 85 of the schedule to the Central Excise Tariff Act.
He exempted service tax for storage and warehousing of rice like it was done in case of paddy last year. Also, blood banks have been exempted from its purview.
Small cars, motorcycles, scooters and commercial vehicles will attract a lower excise duty of 8% from the current 12%, while SUVs will see a 6% reduction in duty from 30 to 24%.
Large and middle segment cars will enjoy an excise duty of 24/20 per cent, down from 27/24 per cent.
However, 10% surcharge on 'super-rich' having income above Rs 1 crore in a year, and the up to 5% surcharge on corporates imposed last year, will continue.
The Budget document does not give figures of the indirect tax concessions, which are valid up to June 30, 2014 and could be reviewed and notified later. .
To encourage domestic production of mobile handsets, he restructured the excise duty for all categories fixing it at 6% with CENVAT credit or 1% without CENVAT credit.
Customs duty structure on non-edible grade industrial oils and its fractions, fatty acids and fatty alcohols has been pegged at 7.5% to encourage to domestic production of soaps and oleo chemicals.
Similarly, a concessional customs duty of 5% on capital goods imported by Bank Note Paper Mill India Pvt Ltd has been provided to encourage to indigenous production of security paper for printing currency notes.
India's Pre-poll Interim Budget
Political battle begins between supporters of Chidnomics and Modinomics
Chidambaram attempts to quash Modi's allegation of policy paralysis
ASHOK B SHARMA - 2014-02-17 14:40
In what seems to be the last major opportunity for the ruling UPA government before the ensuing polls to present its case, the finance minister P Chidambaram did his best. He seized the opportunity of tabling the country's interim Budget 2014-15 to initiate a debate between his government's track record of maintaining a stable economic growth vis-a-vis Modinomics of the rival party's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi.