There is little doubt as of now that the party would emerge as the largest political entity in the four corner contest. But for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, this would be a hollow victory. The TMC supremo now understands that unless her party wins between 32/35 seats out of 42, her ambition to emerge as a big time national level entity would remain a dream.

Recent domestic and national trends suggest that winning so many seats may not be possible. The public refusal of Mr, Hazare to share the dais with the TMC and the public expression of his reservations about the TMC effectively underscored its near pariah status in the national context.

As political campaigning for the polls picks up momentum, not a single national or regional party has yet responded positively to Ms Banerjee’s appeals to join the TMC to set up a non-Congress, non -BJP alternative' Federal' Front. She has won a glimmer of indirect support from a national and a state party, but nothing more.

Among major parties, the BJP has kept its diplomatic options open with top leaders like Mr. Narendra Modi/ Mr, Rajnath Singh supporting the TMC’s demand for a special financial package from the centre. But the BJP is by no means united on the question of any alignment with the TMC, as its other central leaders also share the state unit’s total allergy towards any ties with the TMC.

As for the Congress, its war of words with the TMC has crossed the point of no return, with Ms Banerjee’s anti-Congress invectives virtually making it a no contest. She did not pull her punches in attacking the Congress Vice President Mr, Rahul Gandhi, for his time-tested criticism that West Bengal could not spend central allocations and roads in the state were in a poor condition.

Consider this as the response from a state Chief Minister to the Vice President of the Congress, ruling party at the centre, at a public rally: 'There are some people who behave like the proverbial cuckoo bird in spring, who make only brief visits to a place. Usually they come from a highly privileged social background, without any idea of poverty. Yet they — it disgusts me even to name such people! — do not hesitate to lecture others! They should know that I am a tornado when I am attacked. Do not force me to open my mouth about the corrupt goings-on at the Centre… You people have destroyed west Bengal. After the polls such people would be at our feet seeking our support...'

Wincing at the tenor of these remarks, a Left leader observed wryly,' Now at least people outside West Bengal would have some idea of what we have to deal with while combatting the TMC here! Yet West Bengal owes the centre over Rs 230,000 crore as of today, not the other way round. And the figure was Rs 190,000 crore when she took over in 2011!”

This apart, only Ms Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK leader took note of Ms Banerjee’s announcement that she could support the former in her bid as a Prime Minister aspirant and thanked her. Ms Banerjee had also included others like Mr, Mulayam Singh Yadav in her( extremely short !) list of 'acceptable' leaders, but the effort did not elicit any response from the others.

TMC was forced to close down what had been euphemistically called the 'War room' in Delhi, an MP's apartment on South Avenue. This was scheduled to be the place where strategies would be drawn up, candidates interviewed and selected , meetings and rallies would be planned for the TMC's great 'Delhi chalo' charge, into North India’s Aryavarta heartland states.... Ms Banerjee, furious with her Delhi campaigners Derek O'brien, Mukul Roy and Subrata Baxi over the Anna Hazare faux pas , made it plain that she would concentrate on West Bengal for now.

At home too, the situation had turned from bad to worse. There were (and are) daily reports in the media of bitter inner party feuds within the TMC from Murshidabad, from Birbhum, from South 24 Parganas, from Burdwan, from Dinajpur.... 'Old' TMC leaders and supporters were not campaigning in earnest for 'upstart', imposed candidates like Indranil Roy(singer), Arpita Ghosh( writer), while Shatabdi Roy(actress) also faced problems in their constituencies. Occasionally the feuding ended in armed clashes, as the police were called in.

Up North, the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, a TMC ally in 2009, sponsored the BJP candidate, Mr. S.S.Ahluwalia , from Darjeeling. It also promised Gorkha support for the BJP in areas like Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri and adjacent areas, bolstering its chances in north Bengal. Suddenly the TMC's prospects did not look as bright as before, as the chances of the Left Front cashing in on a non-left vote split between the BJP, the Congress and the TMC now looked certain. As it is, the BJP's chances of winning around 12/15% of the popular vote in the state this time up from around 4/5% in 2009, is causing the TMC sleepless night.

The BJP stands to make a clean sweep of electoral support from the 15 million strong Hindi-speaking community in the state, composed mostly of people from UP, BIhar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh .Their support had earlier been divided between the Congress and the Left, but later the TMC cut into the Cong votes. This time a pro-Modi swing has been marked within the large segment. of voters.

Significantly, the Left parties are not campaigning as hard as before among Hindi speaking voters, according to some local media reports. 'The reason is clear,” says an analyst. 'They know that these people are backing the BJP all the way in 2014. By allowing the BJP to grow, Left leaders are aiming to ensure that these votes do not go the way they did in 2009 — to the TMC! '

Is this what Mr, Banerjee means when she alleges “a conspiracy against the TMC' by the Congress, the BJP and the CPI(M) , in the 2014 LS polls ? As a leader who succeeded in winning support from the GJM, the Maoists and the Kamtapur Peoples' Party (partially banned) in 2009, she should certainly know about conspiracies. (IPA Service)