The state is poised to go for polls on April 10 and 17 to elect a 147-member Assembly and send 21 members to the Lok Sabha.

Thanks to the ineffective and weak leadership of the state Congress party to keep its flock together that has given Naveen an upper hand in decimating the party before the polls.

Naveen has taken the advantage of the discontent in the state Congress party and poached key leaders like the Congress Legislative Party (CLP) leader Bhupinder Singh, Nayagarh District Congress President Hemendra Singh, senior Congress leaders like Kamala Das, CLP Secretary Anup Kumar Sai.

He has given the new entrant and former CLP Secretary Anup Sai to contest from Brajrajnagar assembly seat, while the former CLP leader Bhupinder Singh was not considered. Congress leader and wife of the former Odisha Chief Minister Mema Gamang who crossed over to BJD has been rewarded with ticket to contest Laxmipur assembly seat.

Discontent in the Odisha Congress went to such an extent that the former minister Ramakrushna Patnaik and his wife ex-MP Kumudini and former MLA Umesh Swaim from Jagatsinghpur district quit the party. Former Congress Chief Minister Hemananda Biswal refused to contest. Deputy leader of the CLP Chakradhar Paik also quit the Congress on being denied ticket. Ramakrushna Patnaik, Kumudini Patnaik and daughter Anita joined BJP.

Naveen's poaching is not limited to Congress party alone. The BJD has also sucked in the JMM. The state president of JMM Sudam Marandi who recently joined the BJD has been given ticket for Bangiriposi assembly seat, while another former JMM leader Bhadab Hansda is slated to contest from Saraskana assembly seat on BJD ticket.

Naveen has also caused casualty to the BJP. Senior BJP leaders like former ministers Golak Naik and Bimbadhar Kuanr joined BJD. Former deputy mayor of Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation Urmila Mohapatra joined BJD. Golak Naik has been nominated to contest from Udala assembly seat while another former BJP leader is slated to contest from Jaleswar assembly seat. As many as 16 independent councillors joined BJD. Also an Independent MLA representing Talcher Braja Pradhan has been given a ticket to contest from BJD.

Having succeeded in his game of poaching, Naveen is confident in increasing his tally of Lok Sabha seats from 14 in 2009 polls. He also intends to increase his current strength of 103 seats in the 147-member House. The Congress party which had won 27 seats in state Assembly in 2009 polls is likely to lose in numbers paving way to the BJP to substantially increase its tally from 6 to become the principal opposition party. While BJD’s graph rose from 2004 polls that of Congress and the BJP declined. Naveen’s BJD won 42 more in 2009, while Congress lost 11 and BJP 26. However, BJP hopes to increase its tally by riding over Modi wave and in face of a battered Congress party.

Naveen is not only to be blamed for the situation. It is also the inability of the state Congress party to retain its flock. Being out of power in the state for last 15 years, the party was on the path of resurgence, planning its strategies, under the able leadership of the then AICC incharge Jagdish Tytler and then president of the state unit Niranjan Patnaik. But the abrupt change of guards brought the party back to square one.

Patnaiks have legacy of rule in Odisha - be it the Biju Patnaik-Naveen Patnaik legacy on one side or the legacy of Janaki Ballav Patnaik of the Congress on the other side. After being three times chief minister, JB Patnaik was gradually marginalized after the defeat of his party and subsequently sent as Governor of Assam. However, his close relative Niranjan Patnaik and his son-in-law and the media baron Soumya Ranjan Pattnaik wielded their influence for some time till the former was replaced by Jaydeb Jena as the president of the state unit. Jagdish Tytler was called back replaced by BK Hariprasad as AICC incharge.

The new incumbent leadership of the state Congress party is absolutely incapable of tackling discontentment within the party. The Union Minister of State Srkanta Jena has been ineffective and viewed as allergic to many senior Congress leaders of the state as he is still considered as an outsider joining from JD(U) in which Biju Patnaik was a leader.

The Congress campaigning has not picked up the desired momentum in the state due to its weak leadership and exodus of important leaders to the BJD camp. Even the national leaders of the Congress party has given scant attention to the state. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi is slated to campaign in Koraput and Nabrangpur on March 31 where the tribal have given a boycott call.

Faced with the bounty of exodus from other parties, Naveen has cleverly designed to accommodate newcomers. He has denied tickets to 35 sitting MLAs and 6 MPs. Six MPs to whom tickets are denied are Nityananda Pradhan (Aska), Mohan Jena (Jajpur), Rudramadhav Ray (Kandhamal), Yoswant Singh Laguri (Keonjhar), Jayram Pangi (Koraput) and Laxman Tudu (Mayurbhanj).

Naveen fielded four Rajya Sabha MPs, Dilip Tirkey, Rabi Narayan Mohapatra, Sashi Bhushan Behra and AU Singhdeo for Lok Sabha and assembly seats after assessing the winability prospects. While Tirkey is in the fray from Sundergarh Lok Sabha seat, Mohapatra is to contest Ranpur assembly seat. Sashi Bhushan Behra is in the fray for Jaydev assembly seat and AU Singhdeo is contesting from Bolangir seat.

All the three parties BJD, Congress and BJP are going to the polls alone. BJD is a heavyweight in the contest and would retain its supremacy as the largest party to form the government on its own strength and get a sizeable Lok Sabha seats. As Congress is bitterly riddled with factionalism and exodus of its important leaders to the BJD, there is a possibility of the party losing its status as a principal opposition party to BJP and may also make their presence in Lok Sabha eyeing on the seats it had won in 2004, particularly from western Odisha where it has a base.

BJP has roped in a former founder-member of BJD and former Union minster Dilip Ray and has fielded him for the Rourkela Assembly seat. The president of BJP state unit KV Singdeo is contesting from Patnagarh Assembly seat. Former MLAs like Bhaskar Madhei and Prasanna Patnayak from Udala and Kamakhyanagar Assembly seats. BJP has fielded its sitting MLA Pratap Sarangi for Balasore Lok Sabha seat, former minister Pradeep Nayak for Kalahandi Lok Sabha seat, co-convenor of party’s security cell Subhas Chauhan for Bargarh Lok Sabha seat, former MP Anant Nayak for Keonjhar Lok Sabha seat among others. (IPA Service)