The latest report which the CPI(M) has sent to the party headquarters in New Delhi talks of bagging at least 11 seats on offer. CPI(M) State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan is on record that the figure could go up to 14 as the fight is very close even in known Congress strongholds like Wayanad, Ernakulam and Mavelikkara.

The CPI(M) is sure of victory in Kasargode, Kannur, Kozhikkode, Palakkad, Alathur, Thrissur, Attingal, Alappuzha and Kollam. In Idukki and Pathanamthitta, the LDF says it is set to score upset victories, thanks to the sense of indignation caused by the impact of the Kasturirangan report issue. The Front could spring unpleasant surprises on the UDF even in sure Congress seats like Wayanad, Chalakkudy and Ernakulam.

As far as the CPI is concerned, the party has put up a good fight in all the four constituencies it contested this time. The party thinks its victory prospects are very good in Thrissur, Mavelikkara and Thiruvananthapuram. In Wayanad, a Congress bastion hitherto, too, the party thinks it has a good chance of scoring an upset win in view of the strong sense of indignation sweeping the constituency on account of the Kasturirangan report issue. An additional factor is the unpopularity of Congress candidate M I Shanavas, who was opposed by a section of IUML as well.

A closer look would show the reason for the CPI(M)’s confidence of wresting seats like Kannur, Vadakara and Kozhikode besides retaining Kasargode. Two examples would further illustrate the point. Take the instances of Kasargode and Kannur. In Kasargode, the CPI(M)’s optimism stems from the fact that there has been higher polling in Kalliassery, Payyannur, Thrikkaripur, Kanhangad and Uduma, assembly constituencies known as left strongholds, this time around. What is adding to the confidence of the CPI(M) is the low polling in Kasargode and Manjeswaram, where the Congress has always done well.

Similarly, In Kannur, the left strongholds like Dharmadam, Peravur, Mattannur and Thaliparambu recorded heavier polling than the last Lok Sabha elections. That this has caused grave concern in the Congress camp is clear from the panicky statements emanating from the Congress leaders who have alleged large-scale bogus voting in Kannur! CPI(M) leaders have promptly countered this argument by contending that the Congress is resorting to baseless charges in view of the impending defeat.

Likewise, in Kozhikode, which the CPI(M) narrowly lost to Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the edge of the CPI(M) candidate is clear as the left stronghold assembly seats like Bepur, Kunnamangalam, Balusseri and Elathur have witnessed higher polling. No wonder, there is a discernible sense of despondency in the Congress camp.

In contrast, the reports sent by the various District Congress Committees (DCCs) has scared the daylights out of the Congress. Outwardly, the Congress leaders still claim that the UDF would win 15 seats, while it has a fighting chance even in the remaining five seats! But the truth is that the tales of infighting, indifference and even cross-voting have jolted the Congress out of its sense of complacency.

For instance, in Alappuzha, from where Union Minister K C Venugopal is battling for survival, Shanimol Usman, shocked the KPCC leadership by demanding a commission to probe the alleged relation between Venugopal and Saritha, the solar scam accused! The open allegation saw the KPCC chief V M Sudheeran censuring Usman for her ‘anti-party; remarks. The Congress is also worried over the reports that SNDP president Vellappally Natesan actively campaigned to ensure the defeat of Venugopal.

Similarly, former Kannur DCC president T. Ramakrishnan has been issued a show-cause notice for criticizing Kannur Congress candidate, K. Sudhakaran while speaking on a TV channel. The show cause was issued after the Kannur DCC formally complained to the KPCC.

As if all this was not enough, Kollam DCC president Prathapa Varma Thampan has accused a number of senior party leaders from Kollam of staying away from the campaign. Among these boycotters were, Thampan, alleged, leaders who were desirous of contesting from the seat. This could have an adverse impact on the final result from Kollam, he admitted.

Last but not the least, Congress leaders from Idukki and Pathanamthitta have accused the Kerala Congress (M) of not working for the Congress candidates. In fact, KC(M) leader and government chief whip P C George was on record that Congress candidate from Pathanamthitta, Anto Antoy was unpopular in the constituency because of his active support for the Aranmula airport project opposed by the people, among other factors. It is an open secret that the KC(M) was extremely unhappy at being denied the Idukki seat. Hence the non-cooperation of the KC(M) in both Idukki and Pathanamthitta, it is being pointed out. (IPA Service)