The Left leadership is yet to offer a comprehensive explanation for its poorest electoral showing in the country since 1952. Intense inner party discussions are on in Delhi and Kolkata. Post election editorials in CPI(M)’s Bengali daily have not been informative. Complaints about the terror tactics adopted by the ruling TMC during the last two phases of the polls figure prominently. By way of remedies, general guidelines suggesting re-grouping and forging better unity among the cadres have been issued.

Broadly speaking, the editorials reflect the sense of bafflement and mystification that marked the initial remarks of ex Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Front Chairman Biman Bose on the poll outcome. ‘Can’t really understand,’ said the former and ‘We need to study the poll figures more closely,’ said the latter.

The poll stats do trace the sad story of the Left’s sharp decline, with its share of aggregate votes currently in the 29-30 per cent range in 2014 as against 41 per cent in 2011, when the last assembly polls were held. The TMC share has risen somewhat from 37 per cent in 2011 to around 39 per cent now, and for the Congress there has occurred a slight fall, from 11 to 9 per cent during the same period. And no one needs reminding which party has gained the most, the BJP’s share rising from about 4 to 17 per cent between then and now.

The 2014 results also indicate that the pre-poll conclusion of some observers (including the present writer ) suggesting that any increase in BJP votes in the state would hurt the TMC more than the Left parties, because left supporters do not normally vote for it, was not vindicated.

Not only the CPI(M) won only two seats out of 42 , its winning margins too have been among the narrowest . Mohammad Salim defeated ex Union Minister Deepa Das Munshi of the Congress by a mere 1,000-odd votes at Raiganj, while at Murshidabad, Badruddoza Khan topped his Congress rival Mannan Hussain by only 18,453 votes.

Interestingly, the BJP increased its votes several fold even in Muslim dominated Murshidabad, a trend seen in other minority-dominated seats as well! It seems normal pre-poll assumptions do not always remain valid in multi-polar contests, because local factors differ widely from place to place.

At the micro level, the study of voting patterns in 2013 Howrah LS by-elections and in 2014 effectively illustrates how the rise of the BJP has occurred primarily at the expense of the Left and the Congress.

In 2013, when the BJP did not contest, observers saw its gesture as a concession to the TMC. The BJP had won nearly 60,000 votes in an earlier election. In 2013, TMC’s Prasun Banerjee a newcomer, scraped through, beating CPI(M)’s Srideep Bhattacharya by only 20,000 votes.

In 2014, even with the BJP in the fray, Banerjee has won by 1,97,000 votes. The reason? Muslim votes were divided among the TMC, the Left and the Congress in 2013. This time, thanks to the Modi factor, it went to the TMC. And, the BJP also reclaimed its own votes which in 2013 were divided between the CPI(M) and the Congress, hurting both parties.

Again, in neighbouring Hooghly district, there are three LS seats, Hooghly, Arambagh and Serampore. These cover 18 Assembly segments.

In 2014, the Left vote dropped significantly in all 18 segments, between 2011 (last Assembly polls) and now. The loss of Left votes ranges from 11,000 to 31,000, a net drop of over 300,000 votes in three years, in one district alone! No wonder Left leaders are yet to provide any kind of explanation for such a loss of support.

In his first reaction, District CPI(M) Secretary Sudarshan Roy Choudhury was quoted as saying, ‘Everyone has seen how the polls were conducted. There had been a terror campaign against us even before the poll process began. There were cases of booth jamming and rigging. We cannot even run our party offices in Hooghly, in some places even the doors and windows have been removed forcibly by TMC goons.’

Significantly, it is not as though the lost Left votes have ended up in the TMC’s kitty. A large chunk has gone to the BJP, the strong new kid in the block.

It needs stating, to put things in perspective, that Hooghly was always regarded as a strong Left bastion. In Arambagh CPI(M)’s Anil Basu, a controversial man with criminal charges pending, had won by a record margin of over 500,000 votes in the LS polls some time back, as a result of widespread ‘red’ terror. At Kandua, seven Congress supporters had their wrists chopped off by aggressive CPI(M) supporters for not having voted Left!

‘The Left is hoist on its own petard, when it comes to rigging,’ says veteran observer Charubrata Ray.’Most left troublemakers now have switched sides, joining the TMC. This is why from Midnapore to Hooghly to Bhangar in south 24 Parganas, you have the phenomenon where the once almighty Left now finds it hard to contest, let alone think of a win, in any election! These are all areas where the Left once ruled supreme, by force.

‘Unless the BJP is careful, there will now be a shift of these elements to the saffron camp. No party, Left or non Left, bothers about the future of the democratic process in the state, so long as they win a few seats,’ he says.

While the TMC, being the ruling entity, thanks to a selective terror campaign and administrative backing, has managed to retain its hold, the erosion within the Left has also occurred largely because of a policy paralysis and a marked reluctance on part of the Left/CPI(M) leadership to launch any kind of sustained agitation/struggle against the state Government.

There has been no end of major developments and issues embarrassing the Government and the TMC - the massive Saradha chit fund scam, the rise in rapes and lawlessness, the legal setbacks suffered by the TMC at every legal forum, the lack of investments and economic progress, the economic stagnation, the price rise, the crumbling infrastructure...

Amazingly, since 2011, the logic of the CPI(M) leadership, has been, ‘It is still not time to launch an all out agitation against the TMC, The people are not with us yet, let us wait for the people to come out on the streets.’ Left leaders have been apparently content with appearing on TV shows and issuing statements to the press, without coming out on the streets in numbers in support of raped women, or the poor kin of murder victims or those cheated by the Saradha group. Only recently, there have occurred some non party initiatives for the Saradha victims and rape victims, through rallies or PILs.

‘The contrast with Mamata Banerjee could not be sharper. Everyone recalls her long sustained campaigns on the Nandigram and Tata Small car project that brought down a Government, through sheer hard work. Our left leaders have got too much used to creature comforts, in comparison, and even their cadres have turned flabby,’ says a scribe.

He could be right. Both Brigade parade rallies by the Left and the BJP were largely attended by common people, worrying the TMC, in February this year. The common people are seemingly ready for a fight against the TMC, but the leaders are weak.

Now with a strong resurgent BJP emerging as a factor, no wonder there has occurred a sharp, decisive shift from the left-minded voters to the saffron camp, as one analyst puts it. ‘Their basic instinct to fight the TMC has been thwarted by the Left and the Congress, but the BJP will certainly not keep them chained, judging by its latest moves in West Bengal,’ he says.

The TMC too, is aware of this as a new threat. Which explains why Mamata Banerjee has opted to remain silent instead of crowing about the TMC’s poll success. (IPA Service)