Will the company last till the next Assembly election, which is due in November next year? To get an answer to the question one has to see whether they are interested in forging an electoral alliance or not? If we analyze their politics, neither of them is interested in fighting BJP together at least in election, because no one is ready to loose his own ground. The support of Lalu to Manjhi government is opportunistic and tactical. Though, his RJD has won 4 seats and his UPA has succeeded in winning 7 Lok Seats, his wife and daughter have been defeated.

By supporting Manjhi government Lalu is trying to achieve two political objectives. First objective is to avoid Assembly Election till the subsiding of Modi wave and the second objective is to send his wife in Rajya Sabha with the support of Nitish. Three Rajya Sabha seats have fallen vacant from Bihar because of the victory of Ram Vilas Paswan, Ram Kripal Yadav and Rajiv Pratap Rudi in Lok Sabha election. Interestingly all of them have won in 2010 biennial election. Lalu’s eyes are fixed on one of the three seats, which can be grabbed only with the help of Nitish Kumar.

It is also a fact that when Lalu announced his support to Manjhi government, the government was already in majority. With some vacancies, the effective strength of Assembly was 237 and with the support of 4 Congress, lone CPI and two independent legislators, Manjhi government was set to prove its majority. Hence the support of Lalu was almost unilateral. There was no desperation on the part of JD (U) to get Lalu’s support. Some JD (U) leaders welcome the support and some of them even declared that they did not need that support.

There is no fear of immediate Assembly elections and Lalu may take claim that it has stalled the BJP in coming into power. Now the question is will he be able to achieve his objective to send his wife to Rajya Sabha and retain his Bungalow of Delhi? Will Nitish oblige him? It is very difficult to provide answer to this question, because no one knows the mind of the JD (U) supremo of Bihar. The only purpose served by the continued support of Lalu to Manjhi government is the suppression of dissent of ambitious JD (U) MLAs, otherwise the government is in majority without Lalu support. And that is the reason; Nitish may not oblige Lalu and return his support by nominating his wife for the Rajya Sabha.

Neither Lalu nor Nitish is going to give up his claim to be the king of Bihar politics to prevent BJP from coming into power. Both have been defeated, but neither is down. Lalu can take consolation from the fact that out of five Assembly seats, which went for by poll, his RJD has won three. In the by poll result he must be seeing his revival during Assembly Elections. Nitish on the other hand is still hopeful of staging a comeback on the basis of the performance of his government. In his first tenure as CM Nitish improved the conditions of road, which led to high rate of growth. In second tenure, Nitish was working hard to provide uninterrupted power to all parts of Bihar by the end of 2015. The availability of power to such extent would further raise the growth rate of Bihar and this may help Nitish to come back. That is why, Nitish may expect to bounce back on his own, and then why should he be seen sitting with Lalu on the same platform?

As Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar is the product of anti Lalu politics. Lalu is a big factor in Bihar politics and there are strong anti Lalu sentiments not only among upper castes people, but also among weaker sections of society. Lalu is no more a messiah of the poor and downtrodden now and Nitish Kumar knows it well. If he allies himself with Lalu, the field would be open for BJP to consolidate its support among anti Lalu forces, which are stronger than pro Lalu forces. Nitish must know that Assembly Elections are different from Lok Sabha elections. BJP won in Bihar because of Modi factor. His OBC status attracted OBC support in a big way decimating both Lalu and Nitish, but Assembly Elections are held to elect Chief Minister and in Bihar BJP has no OBC face of Nitish stature. That is the reason, Nitish would not like to align electorally with Lalu, because that will ruin his politics and in company with Lalu he will loose his shine.

Nitish has already played his card well. He has resigned and did not give time to his detractors within and outside party to demand his resignation. He has thwarted the threat of immediate Assembly Election. He has even installed the government of his own party with comfortable majority. And significantly, by making Jeetan Ram Manjhi as the Chief Minister, he has successfully tried to build his progressive image of being pro lower castes. During the Lok Sabha elections, BJP supporters were claiming that Nitish opposed Narendra Modi, because he belonged to an OBC caste. By making Jeetan Ram Manjhi the CM, he has projected himself as the champion of not only OBCs but also of depressed classes. This may help him to regain his lost ground and for this he has to sail alone on his boat. Similarly, Lalu Yadav is not going to accept the leadership of Nitish to defeat BJP. Hence, the present honeymoon between the two strongmen of Bihar may not get translated into an electoral honeymoon. (IPA Service)