The victory of Congress candidate Raj Babbar in Firozabad Lok Sabha seat has made it clear that voters have faith in the UPA government of Dr Manmohan Singh as well as Congress, which was staging a big comeback under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi as was evident in the Lok Sabha polls.

The results also show that the BJP is fast becoming irrelevant. There is also a question mark on the Mulayam brand of politics.

With impressive wins in nine assembly seats, Chief Minister Mayawati has demonstrated her hold on the masses despite the propaganda made by the opposition parties during the recent months. The BSP had also won three out four assembly seats in by-elections held a few months back.

The BSP has administered a severe jolt to its main rival Samajwadi Party by wresting five seats: Isauli, Pawaon, Haiser Bazar, Itawah and Bharthana. The last two are known strongholds of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The BSP also jolted two Union Ministers by wresting Jhansi and Padrauna from Congress. Union Ministers Pradip Jain and RPN Singh had staked their prestige on these two constituencies won by them in the last assembly polls. Another Union Minister who has been humiliated by the BSP is Jatin Prasad who staked his personal prestige in the election in Pawoan in his home district Shahjehanpur.

BSP leaders commented that while Congress and Samajwadi Party used star campaigners including Rahul Gandhi and other senior leaders and Bollywood stars, Mayawati and Satish Mishra did not campaign in these by-elections, leaving it to senior cabinet minister Nasimuddin Siddiqui and his colleagues.

Political analysts feel that Mayawati's decision to return to her Dalit agenda after the poor performance of the party in the Lok Sabha elections paid off this time.

It maybe mentioned that to win over her Dalit voters who had shown apathy in the Lok Sabha polls Mayawati had announced a number of schemes and facilities; she even introduced reservation for Dalits in allotment of government contracts and in private technical colleges.

Samajwadi Party, which drew a blank, suffered its worst defeat in recent years. The erosion of Mulayam's support base in his own home district, Etawah and neighbouring Firozabad is a major concern for the Ahir leader who had been dominating central UP for over 20 years.

Mulayam's main worry is the beginning of the end of backward class politics. He had pinned his hopes on the presence of over four lakh Yadav voters and 1.5 lakh voters from the Lodh backward community whose leader Kalyan Singh also campaigned for SP candidate, Dimple Yadav. The SP even compromised with RLD chief Ajit Singh and got his son Jayant Choudhury to campaign in an effort to win the support of Jat voters in the area. As if this was not enough, Amar Singh deployed the star power of Sanjay Dutt, Jaya Pradha and Jaya Bachchan in the campaign for Dimple Yadav.

The manner in which Samajwadi Party's Muslim candidate in Lucknow, Bukkal Nawab was pushed to the fourth position - he came second in the last polls - was proof enough of the erosion of SP's Muslim vote base. The beneficiary was Congress which secured the Muslim votes.

Congress and UPCC chief Rita Bahuguna has reasons to be happy over the results as the party won Firozabad Lok Sabha, considered to be an SP stronghold.

Political analysts give full credit for the victory of Raj Babbar in Firozabad to AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who changed the political climate with his meetings and message of development to voters.

The victory of Congress candidate from Lucknow West assembly constituency is significant as the party was wresting it after 25 years. Congress leader Zafar Ali Naqvi, who had won the last time, was made in-charge of the campaign this time. Congress candidate Shyam Kishore Shukla defeated Amit Puri of BJP. Since old Lucknow with a predominant Muslim population is also part of this constituency, it is clear that the minorities fully supported the Congress.

AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh said that the results showed the decline of the SP and the BJP. He declared that the Congress will contest the 2012 polls on its own to wrest power from BSP and achieve the Mission UP of Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP's downslide since the Lok Sabha elections continued as the party failed to retain its seats in Lucknow West and Koasla in Varanasi .In Lucknow the Lalji Tandon factor worked against BJP. Tandon wanted the ticket to be given to his son, Gopal. But party leadership decided in favour of Amit Puri. Tandon felt humiliated and did not campaign for the BJP candidate.

In Koala, too, Ajay Rai, who contested as an Independent won this time. Ajay had left the BJP and unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha polls on an SP ticket.

State BJP president Dr Ramapati Ram Tripathi said money power, muscle power and misuse of official machinery had influenced the results. But the fact is that the BJP in UP is plagued by personality clashes and lack of leadership. (IPA)