With the split in Maharashtra, the BJP will inevitably loose support of 18 members of the Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha and four in the Rajya Sabha. So far as the lower house is concerned, it does not make any difference to the BJP as it commands absolute majority on its own but in the upper house it will affect the government.

Sena and the NCP have put forward impossible conditions for continuance of their respective alliances. Sena wanted that Uddhav should be declared as BJP-Sena’s Chief Ministerial candidate whether Sena gets more seats than the BJP or not. This is a ridiculous proposition and the BJP or, for that matter, any party will never accept it.

Likewise, the NCP demanded that the next chief minister should be rotated between the Congress and the NCP, taking for granted that the combine will get a majority. The rotational system was once followed in Uttar Pradesh when Mayawati was the Chief Minister but it miserably failed. To say the least, the NCP’s demand was foolish and no sane party will ever accept it. The Congress has gone to the extent of conceding that if NCP gets more seats than the Congress, it may have its Chief Minister.

What will be impact of twin splits on next month’s assembly elections in Maharashtra? First, there will be four-cornered contest, and in some constituencies, it may be five- cornered, badly dividing the votes. So far, the traditional plank of Hindutva has helped the Sena and the BJP complement each other. It will be no longer so and traditional BJP-Sena votes will split.

From Maratha vote-bank, those loyal to the Sena added to the BJP’s strength but their vote will now be split straight between Sena and MNS. The Sena stands to lose the BJP’s 17 per cent Gujarati votes. The 54-per-cent OBC share, always split between Sena-BJP and the Congress-NCP from region to region, will now have four options rather than two.

The Congress and the NCP have together enjoyed the support of Dalits, Muslims and Marathas. This vote combination will now break, putting both the Congress and the NCP in disadvantageous position. People were used to voting for the BJP-Sena or the Congress-NCP as alliance partners. Now in a multi-cornered contest, a lot will depend on the party the voters want.

Sena will face problem in the Vidarbha region, having 60 seats and North Maharashtra with 30 seats where the BJP dominates. In Marathwada, with 48 seats, Sena seems to be better placed. In western Maharashtra, a Congress-NCP domain, the BJP and Sena have traditionally struggled. The BJP drew its strength from Sena in Mumbai, Thane and Konkan. It will struggle once Sena campaigns from emotive sons-of-the-soil plank.

Though it will be foolhardy to hazard a guess on poll outcome in October election, certain trends are clear. None of the four parties are going to get a majority and there will be a hung house. Also Shiv Sena is likely to suffer because it is no longer as powerful as it was during Balasaheb’s time. The fact is that Uddhav is a weak and headstrong leader. One wonders if the Sena will be in a position to retain its present strength of 46 and it may slide further.

The BJP is likely to make inroads in Sena’s strong holds. Though both BJP and Sena have no credible leader in Maharashtra, the advantage of the BJP is that it rules the centre and Modi wave has not yet fully subsided. If Narendra Modi (he is certain to do that) campaigns for the BJP, the party is bound to be in a much better position. No wonder if it emerges as the single largest party.

Between the Congress and the NCP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP is better placed though both the parties would undercut votes of each other. The chances are that NCP may emerge as the second largest party. The timing of the NCP’s snapping ties with the Congress—within an hour of Sena-BJP alliance collapsing—is significant, giving the impression as if Sharad Pawar and his supporters were waiting for Sena to move out.

Reports being circulated in political circles say that the BJP and NCP may form a coalition after the election. This will also open up the chances of NCP joining the Modi government at the centre. In politics anything is possible. (IPA Service)