In any case having been convicted in fodder scam, neither Lalu himself nor a member of his family are in a position to take over the Chief Minister’s chair at this stage. The ‘unite or perish’ logic of the arithmetic thrown up by the Modi election had its own message for both Lalu and Nitish. While NDA polled 38.8 per cent of the popular vote, it had won 31 seats – out of the total of 40. Lalu, Nitish and the Congress totted up between them an impressive 45.6 per cent, but won only nine seats because they were divided. The bye elections held a few weeks afterwards, only confirmed this message, when Lalu and Nitish joined hands, they won six out of ten seats, much to BJP’s surprise.

Though reduced to a 15.6 per cent vote share in 2014, Nitish is known for good governance. Many were heard as saying in 2014 general election campaign that while they were voting for Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha poll, they would opt for Nitish in 2015 assembly election. Failure to project Nitish as CM candidate would have made the alliance a non-starter, reinforcing an element of uncertainty about it when the BJP is clearly going to make ‘political stability’ its poll theme.

Interestingly, many Yadavas who were opposed to Nitish are reconciling to him, because they see the alliance as a gateway to power which they had been deprived of for ten long years. They believe their leader would anyway be calling the shots. The final test of the alliance will be at the time of ticket distribution. A seat-sharing formulate has still to be worked out. A six-member team comprising three members each from JD(U) and RJD has been set up to deliberate on the issue. Given Lalu acceptance of Nitish as CM candidate, the RJD may demand a lion’s share of seats and here the hard bargaining will start. In addition, there is the issue of accommodating other allies such as the Congress and the NCP.

Ousted Chief Minister Jitin Ram Manjhi has already aligned with the BJP and is trying to play on Mahadalit aspiration. Another Dalit leader, Ram Vilas Pawan is an ally of the BJP. The crucial question today is what chunk of EBC (the scattered non-Yadav-Kurmi—Koeri –having 24% votes) and Mahadalits (10-12 %) will remain with Nitish Kumar? They will play a decisive role in September-October election. In 2010, the victorious Nitish-BJP alliance had represented a tactical alliance between forward castes, EBC and Mahadalits.

While handling the situation in Bihar, the Congress has demonstrated its old deft way, facilitating the coming together of two leaders, hitherto bitter rivals, Nitish and Lalu, and going for big picture. Rahul Gandhi, known for his ‘go solo’ approach, has demonstrated a willingness to go for a coalition arrangement and carry with him regional parties to regain a toehold in Bihar.

Bihar, doubtless, promises to be to be a high stakes election. It is more than just a state election. BJP victory will mean continuation of Modi momentum and add to the party’s number in the Rajya Sabha, badly needed to get its legislative agenda through. For the BJP, a defeat in Bihar would send the message that it peaked last year with J&K polls—and that it could well be downhill from now on. Victory of the Nitish-Lalu-Congress combine would also bring a non-BJP alliance to power in a large state. This would also have effect in UP going to poll 2017. That was, perhaps, the reason that Mulayam Singh, who knows that the Bihar victory would help in creating a psychological climate in favour of regional parties in UP, used all his persuasive power, to convince Lalu to back Nitish as Chief Ministerial candidate. (IPA Service)