Euphoria which was visibly perceptible even a week back is missing. The BJP state leadership which was confident of dumping Nitish, has suddenly switched over to introspective stance. After three days of projection of Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate, the BJP on June 10 announced “We will go to the people with idea of Modi” making it abundantly clear that the party is not willing to project any one of its state leaders for the top job. The BJP general secretary Bhupendra Yadav who was picked up by Amit Shah to monitor the assembly elections this year, made it clear they would repeat the idea of Modi in Bihar. Yadav was clear that the party would not prefer to project its chief ministerial candidate.

Who should be the face of the party has indeed been the contentious issue. At least there are seven claimants for the top job. But the central leadership is yet to identify a face which can take on Nitish. The BJP intends to reach out to the youths. In the BJP’s perception the youth should be motivated to seek options to address their growing aspirations. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the youth of the state cutting across the party line had rallied behind Modi and had voted for the B JP candidates. But now the situation has changed. There is no denying the fact that the youth of Bihar is feeling disillusioned with the failure of the Modi government to create job opportunities for them.

Stopping Nitish from coming to power is the prime motto as well as the task before the BJP and its brigade. With this in view Shah has agreed to enroll Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM as the third important component of this strategy. During the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had worked out a new social engineering and weaved a winning combination of the upper caste supporters and dalits with Ram Vilas Paswan and Udit Raj on its side. But in recent months this combination has developed cracks. The BJP cannot rely on a section of the upper caste voters, precisely Bhumihars and Rajputs. Obviously the BJP is desperate to win over the dalit youths.

How to describe the alliance between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar has been the most difficult task. Whether it should be described as coalition of social justice or the coalition of desperation depends on the future move of Lalu Yadav. But his opposition to Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate has simply drawn these two upper castes somewhat closer to Nitish. Lalu opposed Nitish as he had inducted Lalan Singh and P K Shahi in his cabinet. Besides being responsible for Lalu’s present plight, these two have been the political face of Bhumihars. These two represent the Bhumihar’s aspiration in the present political scenario.

By projecting Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate, the RJD-JDU-Congress combine has certainly taken a lead over the BJP, which is still gripped with confusion over its CM nominee. The main worry for the BJP is that there is no mass leader who can at least match the charisma of Nitish Kumar. Apparently there are many claimants for the top job, the fact remains that none of them has the political ability to move the voters and carry along with them. Even Sushil Modi is no match to Nitish. Obviously this is the reason that BJP intends to go to the poll on the name of the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. The leadership is scared of repeating the Delhi experiment.

Amit Shah by inducting Manjhi has gone for a major gamble. Dalits nurse antagonistic relations with some backward castes. With Manjhi in the NDA these backward castes may redraw their electoral strategy. With 27 per cent scheduled caste and mahadalit population, Manjhi is quite euphoric that he would be the ultimate beneficiary. The scheduled castes and mahadalits would take revenge of the humiliation inflicted upon him by backward caste Nitish. But the BP leadership is not willing to subscribe to his version and fall into the trap. The mahadalits have still not shown any inclination to rally behind him. The rallies and public meetings organized by his HAM have not succeeded him in firing their imagination and aspirations. They are skeptical of the moves of Manjhi. But the fact also cannot be denied that a section of the mahadalits, around 3 per cent, want to project him as the modern voice of the dalits. Among the dalit leaders, he is most acceptable.

Nevertheless the BJP leadership is hopeful of rebel RJD Lok Sabha member Pappu Yadav, once close confidant of Lalau Yadav, joining the NDA. He has already floated his own party. But the major obstacle has been his wife Ranjana. She is Congress Lok Sabha member from Bihar and the Congress is striving to poach Pappu. With Congress as an alliance partner, it can be expected that Pappu would prefer to join hands with the Congress.

It is beyond comprehension how could an astute politician like Lalu commit the silly mistake of not accepting Nitish in the first place as the leader of the alliance? It was June 8 meeting of Nitish Kumar with the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi to work out an alliance with the grand old party, the symbol of modern secularism, that witnessed a paradigm shift in the stance and approach of Lalu Yadav. He accepted Nitish as the leader of the unified Janata Parivar and was quick to announce him as the chief ministerial face of the united Janata family though with a rider “I was ready to gulp poison for defeating the communal forces”.

Lalu did not intend to be pretentious. He was speaking the truth. For him accepting Nitish as the chief minister and allowing to rule Bihar is not less than committing hara-kiri by gulping poison. It is not that Nitish is unaware of the threat. While he is aware of the fragility of this coalition he is also conscious of the lingering instability factor. But instead of giving credence to the maneouverings of Lalu Yadav, he has been more focused on the BJP onslaught. He knows to be in power it is imperative to shatter the juggernaut of Modi. This is the only formula to keep Lalu and his men under check.

The fact is Nitish has been a step ahead of the BJP. Even while uncertainty prevailed on the issue of Lalu accepting him as the chief ministerial candidate, Nitish had already put in place a group of professionals to come out with new ideas and mechanism to reach out to youths and especially the urban middle class. This is a major departure from the traditional style of politicking and electioneering in Bihar. Usually the leaders arouse the caste passion and push the youths to the fore to gain the support of their caste men. Instead Nitish intends to make them look at development process from the angle of a participant.

Nitish in fact has preferred to reach out to the people with the idea of good governance. This move while negates the BJP propaganda that the Bihar was moving towards the Jungle Raj with Lalu supporting Nitish, it also underlines that Nitish has his own agenda. In fact it was on June 6, the day Lalu ruled him out as the leader of the Janata combine, Nitish’s think tank came out with the posters depicting him as the harbinger of growth. The poster read “Age badhata rahe bihar, fir ek bar Nitish Kumar”. The publication of the poster clearly manifested that he was determined to fight out BJP and also Lalu. What was significant was that instead of following the social engineering, he has been using his governance as the electoral USP. (IPA Service)