Within hours of the new presidency, the inevitable have started happening. Russia and China held their ‘limitless friendship” session reaffirming their close strategic and defence ties. President Xi Jinping of China held a virtual meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, exchanging notes on the new global environment.
Their close reaffirmation of the ties demonstrated that unilateral action against either of them should kick in fresh responses from the other as well. Thus, President Donald Trump may find himself hamstrung in moving against Russia over the Ukraine issue.
On the other hand, President Xi Jinping might get support from his Russian counterpart in dealing with an emerging situation in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Straits or elsewhere in the world.
In the midst of such estrangement between the Russia-China axis, on the one hand, and an assertive United States, on the other, could offer some stark choices to others in the global strategic game. Trump has already sent out dire warnings to Russia immediately following his inauguration.
Trump had earlier boasted that the Ukraine war would be end within days of his re-entry into the White House. However, now Trump is changing his script and announced in his post inauguration press interaction that America would impose new sanctions on Russia if the latter refuses to join the negotiating table.
President trump revealed that president Vladimir Zelensky was willing to work on a deal to resolve the crisis and end the war. However, Putin is not coming round to the negotiating table. Trump might have sniffed out that Putin would not easily yield to Trump’s threats.
Trump has even gone to the extent of saying that America would provide fresh weapons to Ukraine to meet the evolving situation. He spoke sympathetically about Ukraine current plight. The country presents a sort of geography which does not provide much of a cover from the relentless bombing and missiles attacks from Russia.
Trump said, Ukraine is a flat country and very good for farming, as it was one of the major suppliers of grain to the world market. Russian air attacks ar flattening out buildings —large buildings— which were leaving scores dead. Hence, he war was leading to deaths of young people, Trump regretted. It looks as though, Russia might now face a even further hardening of US attitude towards Russia in the context of the Ukraine war, with more potent weapons and war systems coming to Ukraine to face Russian assaults.
In this context, Trump observations about Russia internal situation is also critical. Trump said that he believed Russia was “in for a very bad situation.” The Russian economy was in a turmoil and prices were rising in the country. Further escalation of the war could wreck havoc with the country ad lead to widespread popular resentment.
Perhaps realising his personal impotence in resolving the Ukraine crisis as he had promised, Trump is seemingly taking a more hostile stance towards Russia and Vladimir Putin. He is also investing more in China and asking the Chinese president to play a more proactive part in resolving the crisis.
After all, China is bailing out Russia caught in the Ukraine log-jam. Buying huge quantities of Russian oil and also delivering critical supplies, China has helped Russia in carrying out his war win Ukraine. Driven to the wall, Trump hopes, China should be able to convince Russia to quickly end the Ukraine war.
China in its turn is faced with a serious domestic economic stress, with the overall economic activity slowing down. Trump threat of rising tariffs on Chinese products could further erode the economic stability. Unless China is more amenable to US demands, it might be faced with a serious crisis at home.
Against this global strategic play, the United States has initiated a renewed exercise with three Asian powers, India, Japan, Australia within the framework of the QUAD. The Quad formation was an economic as well as strategic formation, directed mainly against China’s expansionism in Asia.
Trump’s new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, who is also known for his hard stance on China, had held his first diplomatic initiative almost concomitant with the inauguration. While Trump was walking into his office at White House, Marco Rubio was holding an opening session with the foreign ministers of the four Quad member countries.
These four foreign ministers were given a special treatment in Washington and were drawn into formal discussions on the future dispensation in the Indo-Pacific region. The interaction brings out the strategic dimensions of the Quad formation rather only as a low-orbit discussion club.
In this situation of global diplomatic quicksand, India will have to play a very subtle role and promote its own national interests. The hardest test for India would be when it faces a direct threat from China at the borders and China policy of “salami slicing” along the borders on the high Himalayas.
It will be the ultimate objective to have own strength to deal with such a situation on one’s own terms. India must pursue that objective. (IPA Service)