The ruling party is already into an unannounced election campaign months before the scheduled poll sometime before May 11, 2016.

This is in sync with TMC leader Mamata Banerjee’s political style. As on oppositionist, her method was a relentless political attack against her targets, never mind cost or consequence. Now such agitations are off. That does not stop the TMC from dishing out rallies and other programmes, on the flimsiest of excuses. Since most such hoop-la is carried out at state expense, it makes a section of her supporters happy. “No other state Government in India has ever sponsored a so-called festival celebrating ‘mati’ (soil) for several days, in India, as far as I know,” says a Kolkata-based columnist.

Ms Banerjee and her followers love being in the news. Sometimes, in Kolkata or in the districts, she meets senior officials, local panchayat and district leaders, always boycotting the opposition. Often the administrators attend party-backed programmes, bending the rules. The other day, senior Minister and former Chief secretary to boot, Mr. Manish Gupta turned up to check how things were going at a low level election at the municipal level in a southern suburbs of Kolkata, causing eyebrows to rise. Seeing TV channels doing their job, Mr. Gupta lost his cool and ordered them to leave! No wonder. The entire opposition boycotted proceedings after only two hours. They alleged widespread intimidation by TMC supporters, as the police stood by.

Buoyed by such ‘victories’, Ms Banerjee’s nephew, TMC Rajya Sabha MP and youth leader, in that order, Abhishek Banerjee is claiming already that his party will win all 294 seats in the state Assembly, come 2016. The opposition will become a politically extinct species. “We will make Bengal an opposition-free state,” he says. The people of Bengal see Ms Banerjee, said her nephew, as “Ma Sarada (the holy mother). They will support her all the way.”

The Indian electorate is by now seasoned enough to expect hyperbolic political language from so-called ‘leaders’, old or new. Even so, for a neophyte, Abhishek seems to be in a class of his own in the bragging department. Only Mr. Derek O’Brien or perhaps the Bengal Chief Minister herself, are comparable. “When these ‘leaders’ speak, words and meaning part company,” says CPI leader Manju Majumdar.

What turns on people like Abishek and his aunt is the apparent disarray within the Bengal opposition. The Congress’s erosion continues with its second rank leaders continuing to join the TMC. It has still managed to retain its overall vote share in the state, between 8 to 10%. The Left Front and the CPI(M)’s vote has stabilised around 29-30% in the civic elections, which were far from fair. The BJP’s share is down to around 13% from nearly 17% in 2014. The TMC’s vote share in the 2011 Assembly polls was around 39% which enabled it to win nearly 200 out of 294 seats, leaving all opposition parties far behind. But it still could not win 61%of the anti TMC votes! The main reason it won so handsomely was the vote split among the opposition parties. This same factor had also helped the Left to win elections repeatedly prior to 2011.

In case TMC dissident leader Mukul Roy sets up a new party sometime soon, as indications suggest, the TMC can look forward to more vote splitting among the opposition parties, by conventional logic. No wonder why TMC leaders go ecstatic whenever someone talks elections.

The only problem is, conventional logic does not always define elections or their outcome. Despite the apparent comfort level of TMC vis-à-vis its opponents, things may change drastically in the days ahead. For instance, observers agree that a pre-poll understanding between the Congress and the Left could be on the cards, for preserving democracy in the state.

A similar situation had developed just after the 1975 Emergency had ended. Fresh elections were called nation-wide. Most disparate and formerly hostile parties came together in mutual interest to throw the Congress out of power. “Compared to the Emergency excesses committed by the Congress in Bengal, the TMC has committed far worse sins. It has all but destroyed even the minimal functioning of opposition parties. It has used its hooligans, misused the police and lower levels of judiciary, confronting human rights organisations and the election Commission”, says senior Congress leader Abdul Mannan.

The other worrying factor for the TMC is that no one in the party is certain as to how much of electoral support, what exact percentage of vote share, it really enjoys. The fact is post 2011, most elections have not been even minimally fair, as the TMC bulldozed its way to victory at all levels. Even Suman Chatterjee, an analyst who is not known to be hostile to the TMC, admits, “I’m not sure what percentage of the vote the party really commands.”

The Mukul Roy factor also looms large among TMC’s worries. Not only is Roy keenly aware of the exact limits of support the party enjoys in the districts, he is aware of its major weaknesses — the disclosure of which could be acutely embarrassing for the TMC. His present objective of breaking TMC ranks by weaning away MLAs, MPs, district leaders and others is bad news for the TMC. Even more worrisome is his recent bonhomie with several minority political formations and leaders, which threatens the TMC’s Muslim support.

Roy’s obvious links with central BJP leaders is another factor the TMC must reckon with. This may be in the realm of high speculation about hardcore political realities. But there are enough indications suggesting that Roy had worked out an understanding with the BJP over the recent Saradha chit fund scam. If nothing else it explains his own apparent immunity for charges of corruption in the scam, while other TMC leaders have been and are, facing the music.

There are hints openly bruited about that come the 2016 polls, the TMC may well end up facing an across the board opposition unity a la the post emergency times. Short of that, even a Congress-Left alignment could prove a major challenge for the party. Of late, Ms Banerjee has tried to send feelers to both the Left and the Congress, in terms of observing normal political courtesies and so on. As of now, her gestures mean too little, too late. Expectedly, they have not evoked much response. In the coming days, this will not be enough. (IPA Service)