Being a seasoned politician, Lalu ought to remember that twenty-five years have passed since the days Mandal agitation was launched which changed the political contour of the country. It is quite a long period in the life of the nation. The generation which led the movement and championed the Mandal politics is in a state of amnesia and fading out. While the market forces have blunted the sharpness of the politics itself, the protagonists are finding it a tough proposition to correlate to the ground realities. Significantly, during this period, two generations have emerged on the politico-economic horizon of the country under the shadow of the neo-liberal policies and economic reforms.

These generations do not share all the political perceptions and ideological mooring of the movement. The then prime minister, V P Singh, accepted the recommendations of the Mandal Commission on August 7,1990 for the reservation of the Other Backward Castes, and thereby, heralded the launch of the Mandal politics. The provision for reservation for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes was already there but it was for the first time in Independent India as many as 27 per cent seats were proposed to be reserved for 3,742 other backward castes/classes. This was done in accordance with recommendations of the Mandal Commission. Though the Commission had submitted its report on December 31, 1980 it was discussed both by the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha in 1982 but no action was taken.

Since then, the Indian economy has undergone a sea change. The social and cultural behaviours of the OBC people have also transformed. They now have a major say in the decision-making process. The fact of the matter is the OBC of 2015 is not the OBC of 1990. A paradigm shift has taken place in their attitude and approach to the electoral process.

In fact, the new class of Mahadalits has emerged as the focal point of new caste mobilisation. No doubt, the OBC continues to have a significant place in the political system, the Mahadalit has been dictating the political line. Basically this was the reason that BJP roped in Jitan Ram Manjhi, the new face of the Mahadalits. He is even projected as even a bigger leader than Kanshi Ram and Mayawati.

No doubt Lalu ought to keep his flock together. With BJP on poaching mission Lalu has been resorting to this tactics only to tighten his grip on this section. But he should have to realise that any attempt to build a new Mandal movement would prove to be a futile exercise. This would simply alienate the Mahadalits from him and would pitch them against the OBC. While Lalu has been trying to simply protect his support base, Nitish has been desperately striving to reach out to the Mahadalits. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Nitish has succeeded to a large extent in his mission. It is a misnomer that spirit of the Mandal politics could be reignited or it would dominate the coming Bihar elections.

In fact, Lalu’s endeavour should be viewed as a shrewd move to prevent Narendra Modi from claiming as the messiah of the backward castes. Lalu’s attack on Amit Sharma for projecting Modi as the first backward caste leader to become the prime minister ought to be viewed in this backdrop.

Decrying Modi’s claims to be from backward caste Lalu said that he would launch a bigger movement than the Mandal movement of the 1990s “if Modi government failed to make the caste-based census data public”. No doubt caste-based census figures would be of great help in formulating policies for the poor and downtrodden. Lalu quipped, “On the basis of new data we will demand a separate Budget for education and employment for those castes lagging behind”. This assertion of Lalu is simply populist in nature and content. He must look at the ground realities and societal changes taking place.

Notwithstanding the provision of reservation in the job, the students are not getting sufficient opening. The fact remains that the prospect of employment remains bleak. Most students are haunted by the nightmare of unemployment. Besides, the matter of fact is the recommendations are not based on caste as is wrongly believed by most people. While Rajput’s in Bihar are not included in the list but the Rajput’s in Gujarat are included; the Patels of Bihar are in the list but Patels of Gujarat are not; and the Yadavs of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are included but Yadavs in Haryana are not. Thus, the basis is the situation of a particular caste in each state.

During the last twenty-five years the economic and social character of the OBC has completely transformed. If they have been economic empowered, they have been become the fulcrum of the development mechanism. The politics of growth revolves around them. In fact in the existing situation the main contradiction has been between the OBC and Mahadalits.

True enough, the BJP has come to realise this and basically this was the reason that the leadership has been trying to weave a new social combination with the tacit dominance of the dalits and Mahadalits. Lalu brand of politics is losing the economic and social relevance is also apparent from the fact that a sizeable section of the OBC, especially the creamy layer and those who belong to the upper strata of the OBC, have been searching for new political alignment. It ought to be mentioned that the criteria for identifying the OBC was politically motivated and not based on scientific method. Criteria adopted by the Mandal Commission to determine social, educational and economic backwardness of caste do not largely satisfy the characteristics of good indicator.

Lalu ought to realise that what was relevant in1990 would not suit the need of the students and youths of OBC in 2015. Their priorities have changed and goals have shifted. The next generation may not subscribe to his political line. The urban population had multiplied many times. The level of income and occupation influences social status to a greater extent. During these years there has been substantial growth even of higher education. The increase in the number of SC/ST students shows that the spread of higher education among backward sections has been more remarkable. (IPA Service)