It may be mentioned that the BJP had managed to register a five-fold increase in its vote share in the by-election with its candidate O. Rajagopal polling more than 34,000 votes – a fivefold rise from the 6000 odd votes it had secured in the 2011 assembly elections.

Encouraged by the Aruvikkara result, the state BJP, backed by the RSS has chalked up an aggressive and proactive strategy to ensure a bigger slice of the Hindu vote in the state with an eye on the local bodies elections in October this year and the crucial assembly elections due in May next year.

However, the BJP’s expansionist plans will not have a smooth sailing. That much is clear from the CPI(M)’s efforts to mend its fences with the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), the representative organization of Ezhavas, who constitute the backbone of the CPI(M)’s vote-bank.

Reports have it that the CPI(M)’s Alappuzha district secretary recently had a long meeting with SNDP general secretary, Vellappally Natesan, in a clear attempt to stop the exodus of Ezhava voters from the CPI(M) to the BJP. The meeting is being construed as a prelude to the SNDP chief’s meeting with the State CPI()M) leaders at a later stage. The meeting stems from the CPI(M)’s realization that any further erosion of the Ezhava votes would result in the fate of the West Bengal unit of the CPI(M ) overtaking the Kerala unit.

The CPI(M)’s fence-mending exercise to woo back the estranged SNDP chief has come days after CPI state secretary, Kanam Rajendran’s plain speaking on the left parties practice of secularism. In a blunt warning without naming the CPI(M), Rajendran had said that the time had come for the left parties to stop being mere saviours of religious minorities in the name of secularism. Kanam is of the view that it is this ‘minority appeasement’ which had caused a massive erosion in the left parties’ Ezhava vote-bank, as was evident in the result of the Aruvikkara by-election.

If the CPI(M) succeeds in weaning the SNDP from the BJP camp to which the latter has drifted of late — the SNDP has denied its BJP connection although it is a fact that in the Aruvikkara by-election a sizable section of Ezhavas voted for the BJP candidate — it would constitute a serious setback to the Hindutva party’s objective of forming a third front led by it in the state, independent of the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF).

Conversely, the success of the CPI()M) exercise would be a decisive first step in the party’s efforts to regain the estranged Ezhava voters who had drifted away from it over the years thanks to what Kanam called ‘the policy of minority appeasement’.

The BJP suffered another setback when the pro-BJP superstar of Malayalam cinema, Suresh Gopi, tried to enter the hall where the Nair Service Society (NSS), the powerful organization of the Nair community, was having its ‘pratinidhisabha’ (delegates’ session). NSS general secretary, G. Sukumaran Nair, who is known for his acerbic tongue, made no secret of his displeasure at Gopi’s attempts to ‘extract political mileage’; an angry Nair bluntly told Gopi that he had no business to gatecrash into the hall where the NSS session was on!

Angered by the snub to Suresh Gopi, the BJP had organized demonstrations against the NSS general secretary, escalating the tension between the NSS and the BJP. Needless to say, it has had an adverse impact on the BJP’s plans to woo the Nair community to its camp in view of the crucial electoral battles ahead. Recent statements emanating from the NSS camp show that the organization has not forgiven Suresh Gopi for his efforts to upstage the NSS. (IPA Service)