His hopes have been dashed again. The UPFA has lost the elections. It bagged 95 seats in a House of 225. Former prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party has won 106. Together with the support of sixteen members of Tamil National Alliance and Ilanki Tamil Arasu Kadci and five of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the election of Ranil as prime minister for the second time is a foregone conclusion.

A victory of Rajapaksa would have triggered a crisis in the island nation as president Sirisena had announced even before the election results were out that he would never appoint Rajapaksa as prime minister. The poll result has also ended the ‘diarchy’ in which the President did not command a parliamentary majority while the majority party was outside the executive. Sirisena was the general-secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Health Minister in the Rajapaksa cabinet. Just two months before the January polls, he broke away from Rajapaksa to stand for the presidency, as the ‘common candidate’ of the entire Opposition.

Rajapaksa’s nine-year rule was characterized by a growing tendency toward authoritarianism and centralization of all powers in his hands and also for family rule. Secondly, his rule saw the physical annihilation of the LTTE and the cold-blooded massacre of Tamil civil population in the final stages of the civil war. But what was most worrying for India was his marked pro-Beijing ‘tilt’. He raised India’s hackles when it came to be known that he had permitted docking of Chinese submarines in Sri Lankan ports on two occasions. Close by was the Eastern Naval Command at Vishakhapatnam, the only tri-services command headquartered in the Andaman islands, besides other sensitive facilities like the Kudankulam nuclear power station. India had reasons to be worried.

Sirisena, however, corrected the ‘tilt’ in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Immediately after assuming power, he announced that he would review the whole gamut of projects being financed by China, including the building of the $1.5 billion Colombo Port City and the new port at Hambantota. Rajapaksa’s defeat was a setback for the Chinese. They were hoping to get Rajapaksa back as prime minister this time. His defeat for the second time has put paid to China’s dream of getting a foothold in Sri Lanka to breathe down India’s neck.

But Sirisena has to tread carefully. There is no denying the fact that Rajapaksa enjoys the support of the strong Buddhist clergy. In fact, as recently as March this year, he met the Buddhist religious leaders. The clergy’s antipathy for non-Buddhist religious minorities, especially Muslims, is quite well known. Paradoxical as it may seem, the fact is that though Buddhism teaches love and non-violence, the Buddhist clergy in the island nation has led several attacks on the Muslims like the one at Anuradhapura in September, 2011, and in vandalizing a mosque in Dambulla. In June 2012, the then Sri Lankan prime minister D. M. Dayaratne ordered the demolition of the mosque and re-building it somewhere else in the country.

According to Western observers, militant Buddhism was ‘a driving force behind the 25-year war between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamils.’ The clergy wields considerable political influence. It is quite likely that in his political war against Sirisena, Rajapaksa may try to enlist the active support of the clergy.

The Buddhist clergy of Sri Lanka belongs to the Theravada sect. It has, through the centuries, exercised considerable political power though not openly. It represents, in its own way, a form of religious nationalism for the majority Sri Lankans. Eleven years ago, the National Heritage Party, known for its hard line, won seven members in the parliament and all of them were Buddhist monks. Sirisena cannot afford to alienate the clergy.

But there are several plus-points for Sirisena. He has kept his promise of decentralizing power. The prime minister’s office today enjoys more power than it did during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s time. The most important step taken by him is the 19th amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka that dilutes many powers of the executive presidency. These powers had been in force since 1978. If Sirisena carries out the promised democratic reforms, he should be able to build his own constituency among the people and become immune to political machinations of power-loving politicians. (IPA Service)