Are there any problems in the leadership transition? Why is the party dithering? Why is the handing over of the baton indefinitely postponed? Is it because the party is not yet ready to accept Rahul in place of his mother or is it waiting for a better political moment or is Rahul Gandhi himself still hesitant?

Apparently, there are definite transition problems. Sonia wants her son to take over the leadership but Rahul wants to shed old baggage and start with his own set of advisers, and work on his US type of elected primaries. Unwittingly, the party is caught in the generational fight. While technical issues are officially quoted, there tussle between the older and the younger generation within the party is the main reason despite the docility of the Congress leaders in accepting the dynasty. The older generation, which is deepening on Sonia Gandhi for their relevance has managed to put off the decision at least for now. The other group is the “Rahul Lao Congress Bachao” younger generation, which is impatient for their leader to take over. This group is certainly disappointed that once again it is a slip between the cup and the lip for their young leader. It is obvious that the vested interests have won the day for the present. Since there is an emotional chord that binds the mother and son, the timing will be decided only by the two and none other.

Secondly, according to insiders, Rahul himself is a bit reluctant to take over when Sonia Gandhi continues to be quite functional. They argue that after all Rahul is the de facto boss. He is taking interest in the party. He is going around the country holding rallies and meetings. He is providing leadership by guiding the Pradesh Congress Committees and NSUI and Youth Congress. He has chosen his handpicked leaders as the PCC chiefs in several states. He is taking on Prime Minister Modi and also the BJP and the RSS. So how does it matter when he is doing the job for all purposes, they ask.

Thirdly, when the party is in a confrontation mode with Rahul leading the attacks, change of leadership at this pint could stir a hornet’s nest in the party, which could well be avoided. The leadership does not want to open another front for fire fighting.

Fourthly, there is a view that the present political climate is not good for Rahul to take over. The immediate test is the Bihar Assembly polls where the Congress does not have much stakes but at the same time is part of the Grand Alliance. If the alliance loses part of the blame will come to Rahul. Moreover, next year there is a bigger test for the Congress as big states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam and Kerala will be going for polls. The Congress is ruling in Kerala and Assam. In 2017, Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand, Manipur elections are scheduled. The chances are not very bright in any of these states.

Fifthly, the party is not fully convinced of the leadership qualities of Rahul Gandhi. He had come up with several bold ideas like the democratisation in the youth congress, NSUI, enrolment of the members, selection of candidates for the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. But unfortunately these experiments failed miserably. Moreover all his handpicked appointees as the PCC chiefs in states like Punjab, UP, Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have not performed to the expectation. Rahul’s critics in the party are also wary of his lightweight team including MadhusudanMistry, CP Joshi, Mohan Prakash and Jairam Ramesh whom they call rootless wonders.

Sixthly, and more importantly, Sonia Gandhi’s acceptability in the political spectrum is much better than her son. She had proved her worth by keeping the party united since she came in 1998 and also keeping it in power from 2004 to 2014. Moreover, she has developed an equation with leaders of many non-BJP parties who belong to her generation rather than her son. Rahul has been chanting “ekla chalo” mantra for long and is not comfortable with coalition politics.

All these prove that Rahul Gandhi has some more distance to go before he can measure up to Sonia even within the party. He can prove his mettle by leading the party in Parliament. The second is to revive the organisation. Despite his going round the country, the party is in shambles in many states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, U.P, Delhi, Odisha and Haryana to name a few. What is the strategy for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as there are only three and a half years more to face the challenge? The morale of the congress is still very low while the Congress strategists believe that if they simply sit tight and wait for the failure of the BJP the Congress could come back. Whether Rahul is number one or number two, it is all in the family and what the Congress needs is a long term as well as short term strategy to remain relevant in the coming Assembly polls. The only way the party can revive is by becoming strong in the states which were once its citadels. (IPA Service)