Nitish Kumar suffered a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections; his current party organization is fragile and a defeat could mean political marginalization. Alternatively, a win would set him up as the first leader to have taken on Modi directly. Lalu Prasad is a convict; he has lost the last four elections and his children are struggling politically. While a defeat could finish his chances of a comeback, a win will show that his Muslim-Yadav alliance, remains formidable. The Congress is already marginalized in the state, but a win will help it raise the stake against Modi and the BJP nationally.

The tug of war between parivartan and swabhiman has begun playing on the ground. Governance and development are other important issues which may decide the outcome of the poll. On the governance front, Nitish’s performance is better; he has been able to improve the law and order situation in a rowdy state like Bihar.

As the caste still remains the determining factor in Bihar, the grand alliance is looking to Yadavs, Muslim, and Kurmis (which is Nitish Kumar’s own community), who together account for roughly 32 per cent, for core support while working to break into the BJP’s extremely backward classes (EBC)votes by pitching the battle as one between backwards and forward classes. The BJP-led combine hopes to secure the backing of the upper caste, the EBC and Dalits , even as it leverages Modi’s life story with the youth and the aspirational class--- who account for over half the votes—to shatter the hold of caste.

Nitish and Lalu are friends-turned-rivals-turned- uneasy partners who between them—along with Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi—have ruled Bihar for some 20 of last 25 years. Lalu has not abandoned his image of an old-style socialist; as backward caste leader, Nitish would like people to describe him as development oriented, modern day politician. The two have come together to stave off political irrelevance and have so far succeeded. Now, it is left to Bihar’s 66 million voters to determine the direction of politics not just in this populous and backward state, but perhaps in the country at large.

Significantly, Bihar will be followed by elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala next year. If the BJP wins in Bihar, its prospects in the states going to poll in 2016 will brighten up. A loss in Patna will have disastrous effect in elections in the four states next year and bring down Modi’s rating in the run up to the general election.

With the BJP having deciding not to project a chief ministerial candidate, Modi’s personal charisma with his 15-month-long record at the Centre will be under scrutiny. The BJP’s decision is dictated not just by the failure of Kiran Bedi, who it chose to challenge Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi assembly election earlier this year, but also by the fact that in caste-dominated Bihar, focusing on any one individual, could alienate those who do not belong to his or her community .

Coming as it would less than a year after the BJP lost 67-3 to Aam Admi Party, a victory for the grand alliance will give opposition a shot in the arm. It will also give a boost to the formation of similar alliances in the context of the state elections. A victory in Bihar would bolster the belief that BJP , and Modi, remain invincible.

Apparently miffed at being allocated less number of seats than expected, SP Chief Mulayam Singh yadav walked out of the grand alliance. The party’s parliamentary Board decided to snap ties with the Secular Alliance of the JD(U), RJD and Congress, and contest alone in Bihar. The NCP too snapped its ties with the Secular Alliance after being allotted only three seats; they expected a better deal.

Now Mulaym Singh, NCP, Left Parties and other small outfits have decided to join hands and jump in the electoral fray. One wonders how many seats this combine will get, but it has potential to damage the Secular Alliance on few seats. Statistical data show that SP has remained a marginal player in Bihar’s political terrain, having received just 0.55% of the votes in the 2010 assembly polls. It was unwise move on part of Mulayam Singh to break away with the Secular Alliance, having made many sacrifices in bringing together Lalu and Nitish. Mulayam had also a role in naming Nitish as the Chief Ministerial candidate of the alliance. (IPA Service)