But the first round of polling demonstrated and reinforced after the second round that the BJP’s calculations were misplaced. The Grand Alliance, according to reports, appeared to have a clear edge over the BJP in the first two rounds. Lalu managed to consolidate his Yadav vote and paved the way for its large-scale transfer to the Grand Alliance. BJP’s jungle raj campaign only sharpened the forward-Yadav divide and is now working in Lalu’s favour. Yadav-Muslim arithmetic (rough estimates place it round 30%) has become a formidable advantage.
Doubtless, goodwill still prevails for Modi. Even Grand Alliance supporters say that the Prime Minister is a popular figure despite occasional grumbling about rising prices and unfulfilled promises. Yet, the figure that looms large among the people of Bihar is that of Nitish Kumar. Modi majboori hai, Nitish jaroori hai, is the current slogan, whatever it may mean.
It is remarkable that Nitish suffers virtually no anti-incumbency backlash even after ruling for nine years. Bahut kam kiya hai (he has done lot of work) is the general belief even among those who otherwise intend to vote for the BJP. Grand Alliance leaders say if Modi has turned 2014 parliamentary election into a presidential election with himself as the main issue, Nitish has managed to do something similar in Bihar for the assembly poll. With the second round of polling having ended, it is evident that the issue increasingly confronting voters is whether they want Nitish as the Chief Minister or not. And, the answer, both in subjective findings and pre-poll opinion surveys, is a resounding yes.
Voters are very clear about the difference, with illiterate rural folk displaying the same astuteness as those in urban areas. “This is a domestic election. We are choosing a CM, not a PM”. These words are repeated in different ways in different areas. Nitish is banking to win back the EBC groups and mahadalits, he lost to the BJP in the General Election. It is interesting to note that the main issue for these groups is not caste but development.
EBC and mahadalits comprise a little over 30 per cent of Bihar’s population. Therefore, they are important segment that both Modi and Nitish are wooing aggressively with their respective development agendas. Because they feel empowered today to vote independently, irrespective of pressure from more dominant castes, they will decide the outcome of mandate 2015.
In the second phase, all six Maoist-hit districts have exercised their franchise for 32 seats. A total of 456 candidates, including 32 women, are in the race. The districts figuring in this phase were Kaimur, Rohtas, Arwal, Jehanabad, Aurangabad and Gaya. Among the leaders in the battle were former chief minister, Jitan Ram Manjhi, pitted against JD(U) candidate and speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary. Manjhi is also contesting from his present seat, the Mukhdumpur constituency in neighbouring Jehanabad district where he faced RJD candidate Subedar Das.
In the second round, an impressive polling percentage of over 55 per cent was recorded in 32 constituencies spread over six Naxal-hit districts of Bihar. While Gaya recorded a maximum turnout of 55.16 per cent, Aurangabad registered the lowest turnout of 48.39 per cent. Among these districts, Jehanabad, Gaya and Aurangabad are considered to be the most left-wing extremists-affected districts. High turnout of women and youth is significant. Phase-II poll saw Nitish’s ‘good work’ being the talking point in many areas. The Manjhis appeared to have put their weight behind Jitin Ram Manjhi, who is contesting from the Imamgang and Maqdumpur constituencies.
As Bihar completed second phase of polling, there was a sense disquiet within the BJP leadership. Apparently, its state machinery has not been able to sustain the momentum created by Modi’s rallies and is forced to reply on local leaders, largely from upper caste. That is why the party decided to postpone three rallies of PM to October 25, 26 and 27 — closer to third phase of polling. BJP leaders believe that this could keep Modi’s message fresh in voter’s mind when they go to polling booths. (IPA Service)
India
NITISH HAS EDGE IN FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF POLLS
BIHAR BJP LEADERS FOCUS ON LAST PHASE
Harihar Swarup - 2015-10-18 03:01
Before the first round of poll in Bihar, it appeared the BJP is ahead of the grand alliance led by Nitish-Lalu combine. When arch enemies Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad joined hands and roped in Congress to stop the BJP from making inroads in Bihar, few expected the shaky Grand Alliance to last for long; soon cracks developed in the alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development plank appeared to be working. BJP leaders argued that Nitish-Lalu combine would not work on the ground. Lalu’s Yadav votes will never be transferred to Nitish who exiled the community (Yadavs) to political wilderness for the decades. They also believed that Nitish’s EBC and Mahadalit voters, who had drifted in significant numbers to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, will ever return to CM.