Travelling through Bihar, one realizes that Nitish continues to enjoy positive ratings. There are no allegations of corruption or ineptitude against him—a single virtue in a state riddled with graft. Even upper caste voters, aligned on the other side, admit that he is a good administrator.

Caste continues to be an individual’s primary identity in Bihar. And it remains the core of political alignments and ticket distribution. Broadly speaking, the Mahagathbandhan of Nitish, Lalu and Congress has Yadavas, Muslims and Kurmis on its side; estimated to be 34 per cent of voters. The BJP-led NDA has upper caste on its side. That’s about 15 per cent. Influential rebels, independents, the Left, Mayawati’s BSP, even outfits of Pappu Yadav and Asauddin Owaisi will play vote spoilers. A substantial percentage of floating votes, especially among EBCs (extremely backward class), the most backward of OBCs, remains up for grabs. Talking to them in various villages and towns, one gathers the impression that Nitish is the most-preferred choice for most, especially among those castes which are not directly aligned to either of majority formation.

Nitish’s development plank seems to be working because Modi’s regime at the Centre has little to showcase for the hinterland and mofussil voter. His foreign visits promise to fetch millions of dollars as investment. His Make in India is an impressive economic idea. But none of this, or the Rs. 1.25 lakh crore package, seems to be tempting the floating votes. Even those who may have benefitted from Jan Dhan Yojana complain of daal’s soaring price.

In 2014 Lok Saba poll, Modi attracted major portion of non-Muslim vote, non-Yadav, non-Kurmi OBC votes from all aspiring classes, cutting across castes. BJP candidates were hoping that Modi’s ability to market his vision and Amit Shah’s managerial skills would carry the day again. That doesn’t seem to be happening. And it is not because of the Bihari-bahari (outsider) plank; they simply seem to be more comfortable with Nitish, the administrator.

Electioneering is a tough task. It is about running a hard campaign and staying on the right side of public perception—both play a key role in grabbing the floating votes. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s observation that the reservation policy needs to be reviewed has pushed the RSS camp on the back foot. Denials by BJP leaders haven’t offset the damage.

In Bihar, reservation isn’t just an economic issue, it is also an emotional concern. The Grand Alliance has cashed in on this electoral gift. Union minister and ex army general VK Singh’s recent dog remark has further put the party the on defensive, especially against Dalits.

Not that the mahagathbandhan has enjoyed a perfect run. Lalu’s utterance, “Hindus too eat beef”, was a major mistake. Yadav’s share a familiar bond with cows. But electorally, Lalu seems to have escaped damage. For Yadav’s, he remains the man who gave them power and respect. They still seem him as the head of their clan. And, he remains the most favoured politician among Muslims, who have further closed ranks, post Dadri lynching and the beef controversy.

That is the reason that Nitish, Lalu and Congress alliance is on a stronger wicket. Most of Nitish’s voters are hoping that the RJD leader would take a backseat and allow Nitish to go on with the state’s development, if the alliance wins.

The BJP President, Amit Shah, perhaps unwittingly indicated that the BJP is on weak wicket when he told an election meeting that “if the BJP by mistake loses crackers will burst in Pakistan”. Crackers mayor may not burst in Pakistan but BJP’s defeat will have cascading impact on the coming assembly elections in other states, particularly in Uttar Pradesh where elections are due in 2017. Next year (2016)elections are due in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Pondicherry and West Bengal and they are crucial as they will indicate a trend. In 2017, besides, UP, elections are slated in Punjab, Gujarat and Manipur.

Whatever may be outcome of elections in these states, the BJP at the centre is certain to complete its five-year term and there is no immediate threat to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (IPA Service)