In recent weeks, she addressed a series of official meetings in the districts, as well as public rallies. She has spent long periods in North Bengal, where the ruling Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) earlier bonhomie with the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha no longer exists. The same is true of her recent visit to the Maoist-influenced Jangalmahal districts in the south. This, in addition to meeting panchayat leaders, Ministers and MLAs, in Kolkata and the districts.

Whether in official or party gatherings, her speeches follow a set pattern, according to party insiders. She articulates a a three point formula , urging upon her party ranks (a) to attack the central government on every issue(b) highlight the work done in the villages by the State government and (c) pressure local government authorities to work as hard as possible during the months that remain before the scheduled polls.

Senior TMC Ministers echo the party line in their speeches. In public meetings Ms Banerjee and her colleagues openly urge people to vote for the TMC in 2016 polls, as yet unannounced! At Jangalmahal, for instance, Ms Banerjee appealed to people not to put forward fresh demands anymore, because ‘so much has been already done’, but to wait for the outcome of the 2016 polls, when their ‘remaining demands would be met’.’ As far as the Chief Minister and the TMC are concerned, their victory in 2016 is an already settled fact.

Yet, the Chief Minister also takes special care not to attack/offend in any way Prime Minister Narendra Modi or any of the senior central BJP leaders/Ministers by name! Such reticence is as remarkable as it is uncharacteristic, in a leader not exactly reputed for displaying much linguistic restraint or observing formal norms when referring to political opponents.

In recent days, the tenor of the TMC’s criticism of the present developments in the national context, where Mr. Modi has been attacked strongly by most opposition parties for the alleged growth of right-wing intolerance, has been relatively mild, couched in generalities.

Indeed, Ms Moon Moon Sen, TMC MP, even defended Mr, Modi, saying he needed more time to put his ideas into practice. The BJP central leadership has also been equally restrained about the TMC. Central Minister Uma Bharti praised Bengal’s irrigation schemes and said other states should follow its example! The TMC has reaffirmed its earlier commitment to support the NDA’s proposals on the GST and related issues, in Parliament.

‘It does not need expert knowledge to understand that the BJP and the TMC currently enjoying a special relationship where each needs the other, going beyond the limits imposed by their earlier much publicised hostility. The BJP is not certain of its victory in Bihar Assembly polls , and the TMC is deeply worried about the CBI’s ongoing inquiry into the multi-crore Saradha chit fund scam allegations which may impact the 2016 polls in a major way,’ explains CPI leader Manju Majumdar. ‘Both sides have been forced by the pressure of circumstances and the requirements of a rapidly shifting political situation, to show more courtesy and consideration for each other — at least for now’.

This hurts the state BJP unit the most. It is already under fire from all quarters for not being able to build on its impressive percentage of votes won in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (just below 17 per cent), or achieving much growth at any level. Its status is not very different from that of the Congress in the past when leaders like Ms Banerjee, Mr. Subrata Mukherjee and others were always held back by the party high command whenever they called for an all out fight against the Left front. Both are now in the TMC.

As of now, the present situation between the TNC and the BJP can be summed up as ‘no war, no peace’. Clearly, it will not last for long. In case the BJP -led formation wins in Bihar, its attitude will harden against the TMC. The campaign against the Saradha chit fund scamsters will be reinvigorated and more TMC leaders could well find themselves in jail.

But if the Mahagathbandan wins the Bihar battle, it may be a different story. The central BJP might well opt for seeking some support from the TMC at least in the context of its weakness in the Rajya Sabha. If in the process the prospects of the state BJP unit suffer, so be it.

As things stand, given its strength and apparent following in the more populous south Bengal districts and the minorities, the TMC should emerge as the leading party in the state Assembly in 2016. The Left Front is consolidating its vote bank and beginning to gain, but far too slowly. The Congress remains a shadow of its earlier self, riven by personal rivalries and dissension at the top level, accounting for only 8 to 10 per cent of the aggregate votes. The BJP’s present vote share would not be much higher than that of the Congress, a far cry from what it had won in 2014.

Is it then all smooth sailing for the TMC from here on? Not exactly. The TMC may emerge as the first player in a very poor field. Its leaders are aware of the all pervasive decline of the state during its disastrous tenure from May 2011 onwards. West Bengal has regressed in terms of attracting investments, in education, job creation, in Health, law and order and other sectors.

This is why for all her apparent swagger and brave words, Ms Banerjee has been forced to signal her support publicly for the JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance during the Bihar polls, indicating that such arrangements may be needed elsewhere. Obviously she had West Bengal in mind. And the Congress will have little choice but to go in for another round of humiliating adjustments with the TMC if its High command, itself much weaker than before, so desires. (IPA Service)