This trend was also visible in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi elections. In the last election in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee wiped out a well-entrenched party like the CPI-M; in Uttar Pradesh, too, the same pattern was seen when Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party annihilated Mayawati’s BSP. People give a comfortable chance to a party and expect it to perform and, if it fails, they give chance to another. This is most welcome development trend and demonstrates that the Indian democracy has matured.

Now look at Bihar; the caste combination in a caste-ridden state like Bihar was superseded by development slogan. Nitish’s clean image, negation of anti-incumbency factor, good governance, improvement in law and order situation were the main factors in the election. All steps taken by the BJP proved wrong. Firstly, they should not have exposed Prime Minister Narendra Modi so much in a state election, making it Nitish versus Modi. Raising of reservation issue by the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, Modi’s DNA remark, Bahri-Bihari slogan, denial of ticket to Muslims (not a single Muslim was given ticket) Union minister ex Gen. VK Singh’s recent dog remark, and Amit Shah’s tactless remark “if the BJP by mistake loses, crackers will burst in Pakistan” all went against the BJP.

BJP’s defeat in Bihar will also have a cascading fall out in the coming elections in other states. Elections are due in politically sensitive Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Next year (2016) in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Pondicherry and West Bengal and they are crucial as they will indicate a trend. In 2017, besides, UP, elections are slated in Punjab, Gujarat and Manipur.

The surprise element in the Bihar election was the Congress winning in an unexpected number of seats—27. Even the party leaders did not expect this. Another surprise was Lalu getting more seat than Nitish; Lalu’s party got 80 and Nitish bagged 71.

The final tally was; out of total of 243 seats, Grand Alliance got 178, Modi 59 and others six. The NDA’s break up is; Modi-51, Paswan 2, Kushwaha 2 and Manjhi 1.

What will be impact of the BJP’s defeat at the national level? While there is no threat to Narendra Modi at the centre, his position is bound to get weak and his adversaries will be more emboldened. True, despite Bihar outcome, the Lok Sabha numbers would remain unchanged but the Prime Minister’s image and stature stands considerably diminished. Bihar was not a referendum on the national government but it does have national implications. First, the politics of divisiveness and intolerance doesn’t work, whether in a rural state like Bihar or in an urban state like Delhi. The future of the BJP national president Amit Shah looks bleak; pressure will mount for his resignation from within the party. He may have to ultimately quit. Also BJP’s position in the Rajya Sabha will further weaken the government and it will face difficulty in getting important legislations through in the Upper House.

After blocking the BJP’s march, Nitish Kumar is being increasingly seen in political circles as the face of a possible alternative to regional parties to take on the NDA in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Many chief ministers have won three successive terms, but victory of Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance victory could bring far reaching political ramification for India’s politics in the coming months and years.

The Bihar polls were widely seen as direct fight between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi who addressed 39 mega rallies, the most by any PM in any election. It is well known that Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi is also an admirer of Nitish Kumar and that was instrumental in projecting the JD(U) leader as the face of development in Bihar .

Bihar has shown visible development on all the indicators that matter during two term of Nitish rule except, perhaps, industrial investment and jobs even as the government has reached out to the most privileged castes and women. Roads and bridges have been built, electricity has reached the remotest corners, government schools have been revived and so has the healthcare centres.

In a state of fierce inequalities, those at the bottom-most rung of the caste and privilege ladder—the Mahadalits, the Extremely Backward Classes and women--- have felt have felt touched by the state, be it through creation of public goods or by targeted schemes and programmes. (IPA Service)