While the result represents a rude jolt to the hubris-high and arrogant United Democratic Front (UDF) Government, the electoral success denotes a much-needed morale boost for the Left Democratic Front led by the CPI(M). The win ends the drought of repeated electoral losses suffered by the LDF. Remember, the front has not tasted success since its defeat in the 2011 assembly elections, having lost three by-elections and the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

The euphoria of its election victory, however, must not make the LDF turn a blind-eye to the BJP’s success in making a mark in the state’s predominantly secular and bipolar polity this time around. This is a disturbing development which both the UDF and the LDF cannot afford to ignore.

Having said that, the fact is the LDF has managed to script a creditable comeback in the face of odds. The Front won an impressive 551 of the 941 gram panchayats, 44 out of 87 block panchayats, seven out of 14 district panchayats and four out of 6 corporations. A decisive reversal of fortunes in the local bodies polls, billed as the ‘semi-final. The victory will greatly boost the confidence of the LDF to face the daunting ‘final’, the assembly elections, just six months away.

Three factors helped the LDF to craft its remarkable comeback win. The biggest was the front’s aggressive campaign against the BJP-Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) alliance’s bid to carve up its own space in the essentially bipolar Kerala polity, by engineering communal polarization. The upshot of the campaign was the large-scale transfer of the minority votes from the Congress to the LDF. This was obviously because of the perception of the minorities that the LDF, more than the UDF, is a better belt when it comes to stemming the saffron surge in the secular fort.

Secondly, unlike in the past, the CPI(M), the dominant partner in the LDF, put up a united face. The new-found unity exemplified by the united campaign by the party triumvirate – leader of the opposition, V S Achuthanandan, State party secretary, Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and former state party chief, Pinarayi Bijayan, reaped rich electoral dividends. VS, undoubtedly, was the star campaigner, and succeeded in blunting the edge of the aggressive BJP-SNDP propaganda with his characteristic brand of bellicosity.

Last but not the least, was the unrelenting accent on the battle against corruption, symbolized by its no-holds-barred onslaught against Finance Minister KM Mani, ‘tainted’ by the bar bribery scam. The strategy saw the LDF attracting voters fed up with the stink of corruption emanating from the UDF camp.

Conversely, the UDF slumped to a shock defeat basically because of its overconfidence and arrogance. The party, heady from its string of poll victories, thought that it was invincible. So much so, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy even crowed that this election would be a referendum on the performance of his government, only to end up with egg on his face!

Another major factor behind the UDF’s defeat was the perception of the people – and they were right – that the Congress-led UDF was soft on the growing danger of communalization and, ipso facto, saffronisation of the State’s secular polity. Speculation was rife that the UDF had even sealed a deal with the BJP in select constituencies to spite the CPI(M). This, not surprisingly, triggered a sizable transfer of its traditional minority vote bank to the LDF. The Chief Minister must bear the major share of the blame for this disquieting development which portends ill for the state.

The other contributory factors were wrong selection of candidates, the consequent rebel menace in a large number of seats and rampant factionalism. The rebel menace did IT the party particularly in districts like Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram and even in Wayanad.

An inevitable corollary of the poll defeat is the challenge to the leadership of Oommen Chandy. Knives are already out, with Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala dubbing the defeat as a major setback for the party and the UDF. A visibly unhappy Home Minister even went to the extent of saying that the High Command must have a serious look at the leadership change issue. The same set-up simply cannot take the party past the winning post in the ‘final’, Chennithala asserted. This shows that trouble is brewing for Chandy from within the party.

As for the BJP, there is no denying that the party has managed to make its presence felt, especially in its strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad and Kasargod districts. It managed to ‘open its account’ in other districts as well; its vote share has gone up from 12 to 17 per cent. But it is also true that its much-hyped and controversial tie-up with the SNDP has not had the desired effect even in known SNDP-influence districts like Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram. It is a delicious irony that even in his home ward, SNDP general secretary, Vellappally Natesan could not ensure the victory of the BJP. The BJP in fact finished third in that constituency!

In the light of the developments, the BJP will have to seriously introspect on whether it should ally with the SNDP in the assembly poll, too. That the party is divided on the issue is an open secret. The state BJP leadership is unhappy over the imposition of SNDP tie-up from the top, the central leadership. Its stunning defeat in the Bihar assembly poll will also have the effect of setting back the BJP’s efforts to forge larger Hindu unity in the state. Amit Shah’s headmaster-style handling would simply not work in the state.

Undoubtedly, the LDF is firmly set on the comeback trail. Unless the CPI(M) makes a major blunder, the LDF is set to wrest power in the state. The results speak for themselves. The constituency-wise break-up shows that the LDF led in 87 constituencies as against the UDF’s lead in 53 in a House of 140. One thing the LDF must avoid at any cost is: a tussle over who should lead if the front wins the assembly elections. An ugly spat on the leadership issue would dissipate all the goodwill the front has secured right now. The CPI(M) must take a lesson from the Lalu-Nitish unity theme in this regard and successfully transplant the experiment on the Kerala soil should the LDF emerge triumphant in the electoral combat early next year. (IPA Service)