With smaller Dravidian parties, the Left and other outfits, some with chief ministerial ambitions, preferring to keep themselves away from both Dravidian majors as well as BJP, the stage at present looks set for multi-cornered contests.

Above anything else, Ms. Jayalalithaa must get cleared by the Supreme Court, where a challenge to her acquittal in the disproportionate assets case is set to come up in the last week of November. She has put before her AIADMK ‘Mission 234’for total victory in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly in the forthcoming elections.

On the political front, whatever the build-up of momentum with smaller parties taking out different positions, any new non-BJP political realignment to take on ruling AIADMK also seems ruled out. One immediate fall-out of the body-blow for BJP in Bihar is to put a damper on the party’s hopes of leading a strong third force in Tamil Nadu for the first time to confront the “corrupt” rule of the two Dravidian majors over the last half a century.

The Modi magic, plotted by BJP President Amit Shah for Tamil Nadu by replicating an NDA model, can now be discounted. State BJP leaders have been put on the defensive and no longer its Lok Sabha poll allies in 2014, PMK of Dr Ramadoss and DMDK led by Mr Vijaykant are willing to join the bandwagon. And both these parties have their own ambitions to head the next government in any alliance opposed to both Dravidian majors.

Mr Karunanidhi (93), on a weak wicket, with party notables, Mr A Raja and daughter Ms. Kanimozhi MP, facing charges of corruption before a CBI special court in 2G scam, has shown little appetite for any power-sharing alliance. Nor are there any takers among other Dravidian outfits for the blandishments of his son and CM- aspirant, Mr M K Stalin, who has been actively campaigning and galvanising DMK cadres across the districts.

Given the warming up of political temperature amid opposition moves in the run-up to 2016 polls. Ms. Jayalalithaa cut short her planned retreat in Kodanad hills (Nilgiris) and returned to state capital on November 8 to guide AIADMK ‘Mission 234’ for total victory in the Assembly elections. Her ministers are touring the districts touting her party’s four-year achievements including welfare schemes and development plans with global investors’ investment commitments totalling over 2,42,000 crores to fulfil the State’s Vision 2023 Programmes, designed to ensure economic prosperity and inclusive growth.

(Although ranked among the fast-growing states in India, Tamil Nadu has not recorded sustained growth over the last decade. Growth rates have been fluctuating whether in agriculture or manufacturing and, according to economists, the state has to stabilise the economy and ensure for the people in the budgeted public expenditure quality education and health care for greater work participation and social welfare.)

The Bihar victory of the JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance has its own logic for coalition governments and the DMK or AIADMK while leading poll alliances have not shared power with smaller parties. The PMK of Dr Ramadoss has distanced itself from these two major parties for the 2016 elections. But the prospect of smaller parties coming together to form an alliance comes up against the issue of chief ministerial candidate. PMK has already nominated Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, son of the party founder, for the Chief Ministership.

The DMDK led by Mr Vijaykant, as AIADMK ally, emerged as the second largest party with a larger number of seats than DMK which suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2011 elections but has since drifted away from the ruling party over policy differences. With 10 per cent voter base, DMDK is considered the stronger among the smaller parties in Tamil Nadu. While ruling out alliance with either of the principal Dravidian parties, as at present, Mr Vijaykant has kept his options open.

Earlier, he was not averse to align with BJP if it agreed to let him lead the alliance. But Mr Vijaykant may now do rethinking after the shattering defeat of BJP in Bihar and the downgrading of the Prime Minister Modi’s charisma.

The state BJP leaders, however, play down the Bihar verdict as one of minor setback which would not affect its poll prospects in Tamil Nadu. But they realise BJP is no longer in a “demanding position” while negotiating any alliance for the 2016 election. They count on developments in the six months still left for the Tamil Nadu election and contend that Bihar has not affected Mr Modi’s popularity elsewhere.

As for the Congress party, which led UPA for a decade at the Centre, the Tamil Nadu leaders have no command over the electorate and the party has had to be a willing ally of one or the other of the two major Dravidian parties. Mr E V K Elangoan, the TNCC President, who is involved in wordy warfare with party colleagues, seems to favour going along with DMK in the 2016 election, as in the two previous rounds, provided the latter is willing to share power.

Mr G K Vasan, leader of the breakaway party, Tamil Manila Congress, is in no hurry to join any alliance, DMK or AIADMK. His colleague Mr Peter Alphonse says the party wants to play a “decisive role” in elections and would not opt for a few seats. “Mr Vasan has to take measured steps before taking a final plunge”, he said.

All opposition parties focus attacks on the AIADMK Government for failing to check corruption and maintain law and order, price rise, power shortages and indecision on introducing prohibition. Ms. Jayalalithaa has said prohibition cannot be enforced abruptly but only gradually, given the revenues that accrue at present for the budget to fulfil both development and maintenance expenditure as well as the series of social welfare schemes which have been well-received by the people. (IPA Service)