After the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and the BJP”s victory , chief party campaigners Mr. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister and Mr. Amit Shah, party President, announced plans to establish a strong presence in the East, beginning with Bihar. They had linked the party’s political strategy with the BJP’s strongest slogan, proposing economic development of the backward areas . Not surprisingly, they reaffirmed their pledge during the Bihar political campaign as well.

To the utter surprise and shock of BJP leaders, their assurances, including a major economic package for Bihar, did not convince the people. Barely 17 months ago, the party had won an impressive number of LS seats from the State, decimating a divided opposition. This time, the Janata Dal(United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress set up an alliance and reduced the BJP to a third party status in terms of Assembly seats won .

The first major leader to call for a Bihar-type alliance of like-minded anti BJP parties in the East is Assam Chief Minister Mr, Tarun Gogoi. Congress President Sonia Gandhi has meantime sent a message of goodwill to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who lost no time to congratulate JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar on the decisive win in Bihar. Mr. Kumar returned the compliment by inviting her to attend the swearing- in Patna. Mr, Gogoi is also likely to attend. It appears that initial signs for the crystallisation of an across the Board unity against the BJP are highly positive in the Eastern states.

In Assam, Mr. Gogoi, according to Guwahati-based media reports, is willing to treat Mr, Badruddin Ajmal, who leads the Muslim-dominated AIUDF party, as an alliance partner. Mr, Ajmal is yet to respond. It is difficult to visualise any such arrangement between the Congress and the AGP, on the other hand.

The prospects for an anti-BJP coalition in Bengal are more problematic. Unlike the Congress in Assam, the position of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), for all its state-based domination, is weak vis-à-vis the central BJP.

There is the ongoing CBI probe into the massive multicrore rupees Sarada chit fund scam where the involvement of senior TMC leaders stands established. The probe by the ED also continues. The possibility of more prominent TMC leaders being called up for interrogation remains strong.

On the administrative side too, the state government, given its high debt burden to the centre — a burden that has worsened under the TMC rule — remains critically dependant on Delhi to bail it out of acute financial problems. The state’s overall debt to the centre has risen from Rs 190,000 crore in 2011 when it was elected to over Rs 250,000 crore now, which means the centre deducts more than Rs 30,000 crore annually simply by way of interest on the principal ! Nor has the centre allowed Bengal any moratorium or other relief, on the ground that such moves are not permitted.

In case push comes to shove between the TMC and the BJP, not only would the former find it near impossible to run the administration, it could also face a serious image and credibility problem over the Sarada scam which would reduce its acceptability at the national level. In addition, it could face problems if the centre decided for one reason or another to withdraw some of the para military forces from the Maoist-affected areas in south and southwest Bengal,.

Considerations such as these have no doubt prevented TMC Chief Minister and her colleagues from attacking the BJP or its top leaders like the Prime Minister or Mr. Amit Shah, too strongly, unlike other parties. The TMC has criticised the ‘trend of intolerance’ in very general terms, treating it is a current phenomenon, without taking any names.

On its part, the BJP has returned the compliment, with central Ministers like Uma Bharti praising the state publicly for its progress in rural irrigation schemes and other spheres. After the Bihar fiasco, the BJP too needs the support from regional parties as never before, to deal with its considerably weaker position in the Rajya Sabha now.

In the days ahead, the TMC will be further hit by defections within its ranks to the new National Trinamool Congress party that is being set up by dissident TMC leader and former General secretary, Rajya Sabha MP , Mr Mukul Roy. He is currently in active consultation with minority groups led by former CPI(M) leader Mr. Abdur Rezzak Mollah , the Congress , civil society leaders and others.

State Congress leaders are overwhelmingly against any proposal to enter into any understanding with the TMC in view of the acrimony and bitterness between the two parties and the TMC”s highhandedness. They would much prefer some kind of understanding with the CPI(M) and Left parties. Such an unofficial understanding against the TMC brought both the Left and the Congress some success and they could defeat the TMC in both urban and rural areas in Siliguri in North Bengal civic polls.

Congress Vice President Mr. Rahul Gandhi too, was known to be critical of any Congress-TMC understanding until recently.

However, TMC leaders point out truthfully, that there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. And if the Congress High command instructs the Bengal unit to work out an alliance with the TMC, how many leaders and followers would rebel, they ask. The Congress High Command is likely to be persuasive about adopting the alliance route with the TMC in view of its major gains it has made in Bihar, winning 27 seats, out of 243, although its vote share, well below 10% of the total, has not increased at all.

At another level, informal level negotiations and contacts are on between the state Congress and the Left parties for an understanding against both the TMC and the BJP. All such activities are at a very preliminary stage and matters will take concrete shape after several weeks. (IPA Service)