A significant feature of the post-poll scene is that the bitterness generated by the squabbles among the various UDF constituents has not evaporated at all. If anything, the resentment has deepened.

And the most visible manifestation of the bitterness has been the open support the Kerala Congress (Mani) has extended to the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Sultan Batheri municipality in Wayanad district. The KC(M) councillor backed the LDF in the election to the municipal chairman, enabling the LDF to score an upset victory in the UDF stronghold. As if this is not enough, the KC(M) also backed the LDF in four other panchayats in Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts, in open violation of the coalition dharma. The LDF returned the compliments by helping the KC(M) to wrest control of Meenachil panchayat in Kottayam district, another UDF stronghold.

The development shows that the KC(M) has not forgiven the Congress for what it considers the ‘conspiracy’ which climaxed in the resignation of KC(M) chief and Finance Minister K M Mani embroiled in the bar bribery scam. The switching of sides by the KC(M), which has considerable influence in central Kerala, portends ill for the Congress, with the crucial assembly elections just six months away.

Similarly, the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second most important constituent of the UDF, continue to be at loggerheads. The IUML, which was locked in ‘friendly contests’ in as many as 24 panchayats in Malappuram district, settled scores with the Congress in Iritti municipality in Kannur district. There, three IUML councillors abstained from voting enabling the LDF to wrest control of the municipality from UDF. The IUML act shows that the party is still angry with the Congress for openly fighting against it in its stronghold, Malappuram district.

The mother of all shocks for the Congress and the UDF came in the battle for Kannur Corporation. The Congress lost power to LDF when it failed to persuade the Congress rebel P K Ragesh to support its candidate for the Mayor’s post. The LDF and the UDF have 27 seats each in the 55-member Kannur Corporation. And the crucial vote in favour of the LDF by the Congress rebel, enabled the LDF to wrest control of the Kannur corporation where the UDF reigned supreme for over 140 years!

Expectedly, the Kannur debacle has accentuated the group war in the district, with both the A group and I group blaming each other for the loss of the corporation. The Kannur fiasco is bound to deepen the group war, and is expected to result in a no-holds-barred bargain for seats in the assembly elections. At present, Kannur DCC is under the control of the I group led by Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala. But the A group headed by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy has made it clear that they will challenge the hegemony of the I group prior to the assembly poll battle.

The UDF’s loss has been the gain of LDF. Thanks to the real politik practised by the LDF, it has managed to win 5 out of the 6 corporations in the state. The LDF is in power in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kozhikode, Thrissur and Kannur. The UDF has had to be content with only Kochi in its kitty. Likewise, the LDF has bagged 46 out of 87 municipalities, UDF tally being only 35. The 14 district panchayats have been equally shared by the UDF and the LDF. But a notable feature is that the districts won by the UDF boast only 53 assembly seats while those bagged by the LDF account for 87 assembly constituencies. Needless to say, it gives the LDF a decisive edge in the ‘final’ battle ahead.

But it is in the grama panchayats where the LDF has scored an impressive win. The LDF has won 550 gram panchayats as against the UDF score of 315. This has grave implications for the UDF in the assembly elections. The UDF’s hopes of retaining its strength in grama panchayats were dashed by wrong candidate selection, groupism and over confidence.

As for the BJP, which is pulling out all the stops to forge a third front in the state, the party has, for the first time, won power in a municipality. In Palakkad, the home turf of senior BJP leader O Rajagopal, the party has created history, and ‘opened its account’ in the election for the control of municipality. The BJP has also managed to win as many as 12 gram panchayats as against its score of 3 in the 2010 local bodies elections. Besides, the party has succeeded in claiming the number two position in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, pushing the UDF to the third position.

The BJP, which has won 35 seats in the 100-member Corporation, feels that the morale-boosting victory will help it to open its account from the district in the assembly elections. The party has also made its presence felt in many other districts in the state. Both the UDF and the LDF will have to factor in the BJP factor in their calculations for the assembly poll battle.

That said, it is also a fact that the BJP’s hopes of making a big impact have not materialized. The party was expected to win more seats because of its alliance with the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam(SNDP), the powerful organization of Ezhavas who constitute 27 per cent of the state’s population. Surprisingly, the alliance failed to make any impact in known SNDP strongholds like Kollam, Alappuzha and Thiruvananthapuram districts. The poor show of the alliance has already induced second thoughts in the BJP over the efficacy of the tie-up with the SNDP in the assembly elections.

The CPI(M)-led LDF is, understandably, in a buoyant mood following its creditable victory in the local bodies elections. But the front would be making a big mistake if it allows itself tol be lulled into a false sense of complacency. After all, the difference between the LDF and the UDF is a mere 24,000 votes although CPI(M) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan would have us believe that the vote difference is over three lakh! Significantly, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury has rightly warned the Kerala leadership against becoming overconfident in the euphoria of victory. (IPA Service)