This victory is certainly not the accurate index of the prevailing mood of the voters. It simply manifests peoples’ disenchantment and disillusionment towards the BJP. How far the Congress can exploit and use the prevailing situation would determine the course correction and the prospect of the revival of the Congress. This election has strongly reinforced the fact that the people of the country are for revival of the centrist political forces, who eventually swear by secularism. The 2014 verdict handing over the Delhi throne to Narendra Modi does not underline the final arbitration and change of heart of the Indian masses.

In a normal situation with the Mahagathbandhan's spectacular win in Bihar, it should have been a serious introspection time for the BJP. But the case is just reverse. Instead of being swayed the Congress ought to do some soul searching as how to broad base the party. Being on the winning side after many months, this is the politically correct time for the Congress to revive themselves.

This time the Congress secured their highest ever tally in the divided Bihar. Winning these seats should be attributed to their joining the Mahagathbandhan and projection of Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate. The performance of the Congress party had deteriorated over the years. It won 29 seats in 1995 assembly elections, 23 seats in the 2000, 10 in February 2005, nine in October 2005 and four in the 2010 elections. Congress vote share has consistently declined in Bihar, from almost 40% in 1985 to 8.6% in the 2014 general elections, and it is consistently 4th in the state on a vote share basis.

The Bihar election results have changed the course of political history. The major impact of the Bihar results is the most obvious: national opposition has been energized. Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar have now assumed important roles in national politics. Immediately after his Bihar victory, Lalu Prasad spoke of bringing down the government at `Hastinapur’ (the Delhi of the Mahabharata’s Kauravas). The opposition should not allow the `fascist regime’ to continue for even a day, he said. It obviously makes explicit that Lalu will now focus on the national politics and try to find a place for him in the national canvas. Another implication of what Lalu said is the Congress will no longer be the nucleus of the anti-BJP front at the centre; instead this space will be taken by regional leaders, like Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal.

Ever since the emergence of Mandal politics in 1990s, the Congress has lost relevance, not only in Bihar but in the entire eastern India. In the wake of the Mandal movement and Lalu Yadav becoming the chief minister, if the dalits and backwards deserted the Congress, the upper castes who were traditionally with the Congress started shifting their allegiance. In the initial years the upper castes to some extent tried to identify with the BJP. But they were not sure how far it would protect and preserve their class interest. It was after the formation of Samata Party by Nitish in 1995 that they reposed their trust in the party and made it work for them.

The situation was not different this time although it still has a small but committed vote base. Congress getting 40 seats to contest had in fact come as a major surprise to the leadership. This was the part of the much bigger plan of Nitish. Interestingly in at least half a dozen seats, tickets were given to outsiders whom many Congress leaders in typical Bihari call ‘loani’ (on loan) candidates. That is, candidates on loan from the RJD and the JD(U). There were murmurs of money having exchanged hands for some seats.

What had been troubling the Congress the most is the absence of a committed support of a caste. As a result of this the party was faced with acute dearth of leadership. During these years the central leadership carried out a number of experiments, frequently changed the state president, installed upper caste leaders as the president, but all these attempts proved to be utter failure. The party failed to resurrect. Party did not get a popular face who has a pan-Bihar appeal. While Lalu counts on Muslims and Yadavs, Nitish is banking on clean image and the support the mahadalits, the BJP depends on the upper castes, Congress did not have any support base of its own.

One thing is absolutely clear that this victory does not owe to the charisma of Rahul Gandhi. The Congress would have miserably lost if it was not the part of Mahagathbandhan. Despite Congress being largely a non entity in the state it dominated just 25 years back, winning of 27 seats would define its future. Revival of the Congress is evidently top of the mind for Rahul Gandhi After the 2014 general elections where it managed 19.5% of the votes polled, Congress leaders have been claiming that the party has the resilience to bounce back. This claim is corroborated by historical developments when Congress emerged like phoenix.

Though Rahul Gandhi had taken the initiative to forge alliances by meeting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the JD-U in June, it is still uncertain whether anti-BJP forces and parties will ally for 2019 Lok Sabha elections to form another `third front’ to compete against both the BJP and the Congress. Keeping away the parties like Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, the Telugu Desam in Seemandhra from Mahagathbandan has been causing concern.

Nevertheless swearing in of Nitish Kumar as the chief minister at the sprawling Gandhi Maidan, in presence of one former [prime minister and nine chief ministers, is being visualised as one step forward by Nitish towards ascending the office of the prime minister. Obviously it makes it explicit that for the present there is little left for the Congress to maneouver at the national level and it would continue to play subservient to the regional groupings and satraps. The fact cannot be denied that baring some individual efforts by Sonia Gandhi, the Congress as such has not made any significant and defined move to retrieve the ground. Through her actions she kept alive the organization. The fact remains that Congress continues to be organizationally weak to become the vanguard of the centrist forces. This weakness has been prime reason for the failure of the Congress to effectively cultivate the younger leaders.

For effective intervention at national level in coming years, the Congress and its leadership must evolve a long term revival plan for Bihar. The grand old party seems clueless on how to revive itself in the Hindi heartland. The time is ripe for the Congress to start staging its electoral revival. One thing is also clear that Bihar experiment, formation of Mahagathbandhan, cannot be replicated in other states. The Congress must look at the prevailing scenario from the class and caste angle. It has to be different for different states. One thing is sure forging alliances in the present context is the only way forward to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and project the Congress as the vanguard of the centrist and secular forces. This will help revival of the party. (IPA Service)