Sales talk everywhere - of how India is set to emerge Asia's biggest power-house, as against a continuing slowdown in China – where any hard landing could spell a new round of global turmoils, as feared by advanced nations. It is also a concern for a person of global economic stature like Dr Raghuram Rajan, from India’s investments and growth point of view.

Visions of a land of immense opportunities for countries of region to benefit from trade and investments have been laid out by Mr Modi. And wherever he goes, the Prime Minister has solutions for all global challenges from terrorism to climate change to maritime security. He has proposed how to identify and combat global terrorism.

What role India, now perceived a major power under him, takes on in all these should become evident soon, to begin with, at the Paris Climate Change Summit. (Dec.1). The Un Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reminds nations it is time for “common sense, compromise and consensus” and that they should all look “beyond national horizons and put common interest first”.

India must defend its interests, wherever called for, with equity considerations in view. But responsibilities also devolve for a global power — whether in protecting the environment or standing for multilateralism in trade (WTO). The Prime Minister has come up with a formula for carbon emission reduction in India but climate financing is still being sorted out.

Exports were discounted as a major component of growth by this government, with little concern over several months of contraction. Lately, a subsidy element is being injected to rescue at least a few promising sectors. But there is no likelihood of an export revival over the medium term, given the current global context, and few areas vacated by China it could step in.

The picture is also dismal with most bilateral and regional trade deals. A combative Commerce Minister Ms. Nirmala Seetharaman, holding on to food subsidy, brought WTO virtually to the brink of collapse in Bali, delaying the launch of the Trade Facilitation Agreement until recently. India’s food security interests may be paramount but ways must be found for adjustments to uphold WTO, otherwise the Doha Development Round would still remain a non-starter even after 15 years.

In tying up bilateral trade deals with Asean, Mr Modi has agreed India would reset its intellectual property regime by the end of the year. Ms. Seetharaman has also reversed her earlier impulsive retreat from negotiating a comprehensive free trade deal with EU.

Mr Modi keeps telling the world about India's economy having a rebound in the last 18 months of his government's efforts to push reforms. Finance Minister Mr Arun Jaitley is so ebullient about prospects that he asserts that nothing could arrest the march of India's 'fastest-growing' economy. This degree of optimism is not exactly shared by RBI Governor Dr Rajan, citing lack of revival of public and private investments. The best of estimates puts growth at 7.2 to 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2016.

Meanwhile, Dr Rajan's bi-monthly policy statement on December 1 would tell us where we stand on the state of economy. There is little room for further monetary easing at this stage. Banks, having significantly lowered term deposit rates, are mostly yet to transmit to their lending rates even a part of the 1.25 percentage point cuts made by Dr Rajan in 2015, preferring perhaps to add to their cushion for balance-sheets.

As winter session starts on November 26, the BJP-led NDA, shaken by the loss of Bihar, like Delhi earlier, and now a key Lok Sabha byelection in the party-ruled Madhya Pradesh cannot fail to recognise that all this takes the wind out of Mr Mody's sails within 18 months of its ascent to power. The supreme leader, however, cannot be said yet to have suffered in national acclaim.

The session itself could well be stormy with a weakened Congress in opposition now feeling resurgent for a fight, with its sweeping gains in Bihar and retaking the Ratlam Lok Sabha seat, (which it had lost to BJP in the Modi wave of April-May 2014). It means the Modi Government running into risks again with its so-called reform agenda in the Congress-dominant Rajya Sabha.

Abroad, Mr Modi shows determination to get GST through and other reforms in 2016. But in India, since the might of a Prime Minister, sworn to a 'Congress-mukt Bharat', will not allow him to condescend to talk to opposition, the job of getting through some knotty pieces of legislation like GST has fallen to Finance Minister Mr Arun Jaitley, a past master for exchanges.

There is yet no breakthrough in bridge-building with the Congress for GST. If the Congress could be persuaded through give-and-take on some key issues, a revised GST framework can provide a basis enabling passage through Parliament of the required constitution amending law. States equally involved in implementing GST have still some issues to iron out.

After the wash-out of monsoon session, this key reform in India's taxation structure can become a historic accomplishment through consensus, if successful. Mr Jaitley will be tempted to declare a BJP victory on this, but he has a host of tougher problems on hand, in the run up to his Third Budget for February 2016.

First, he has to get over a fiscal mess compounded by the 7th pay commission report entailing an annual extra expenditure of over Rs. one lakh crore. Inflation is already on the surge, with the push from soaring dal and other prices of common man and aggravating rural distress. Next, he has to finally clear the air on Tax policy credibility.

But the Centre, committed to make it easier for corporates and also adhering to fiscal consolidation would have to mobilise additional resources. He is seeking to do this through a plethora of cesses and surcharges, along with the Railways, to burden the common people in the name of development. (IPA Service)