In the 2014 general elections, Kantilal Bhuria was defeated by Dilip Singh Bhuria. Ratlam is a Tribal seat and it is significant that the largely illiterate and tribal electorate rejected BJP within a span of one-and-a-half years.

Besides Ratlam, bye-elections were also held in Dewas Assembly constituency. The vacancy was caused due to the demise of the sitting BJP member, whose wife was fielded as the BJP candidate. The BJP cannot claim credit for the Dewas victory because the royal family has been consistently winning this seat. Gayatri Raje Puar, the BJP nominee who has won, belonged to the royal family.

For the Chief Minister, Ratlam was a prestigious contest. He spent almost two weeks campaigning in the constituency. He addressed as many as 52 public meetings. He visited more than 90 families, who lost their kith and kin in an explosion at Petlawad – a small town in the constituency. More than 90 persons were killed in the explosion. Petlavad is a Vidhan Sabha segment of the parliamentary constituency. Voters of the constituency were angry with the BJP government mainly because the prime culprit of the incident – whose cache of illegally-stored explosives had caused the tragedy- has not been arrested so far.

The defeat in Ratlam has come as a big jolt for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which, otherwise, was consistently winning elections from the state. In its third term in office in the state, it is for the second time that the BJP has lost in bye-polls. It had lost Bahoribandh Assembly seat in August 2014.

After the 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had registered victories in Lok Sabha, Municipal and Panchayat elections. These successive victories had shattered the morale of the Congress in the state. Against this backdrop, the Ratlam victory is sure to give a new lease of life to the opposition party.

Excessive publicity and excessive management are being cited as reasons for the BJP’s defeat. Leaders and party workers from outside the Lok Sabha constituency were deployed in campaigning, overlooking local party workers. Chauhan, prior to elections, had announced developmental schemes of Rs 2,000 crore in Lok Sabha area. But far from having a positive impact, these announcements only increased resentment among the people. A large contingent of Ministers was deputed in the constituency. MLAs were deputed at the block level. Instead of focusing on issues, money management was given priority.

Amongst Ministers, Bhupendra Singh, Jayant Mallaiya, Antar Singh Arya, Lal Singh Arya, Umashankar Gupta, Gopal Bhargava, Narottam Mishra, Surendra Patwa, Maya Singh and Vijay Shah were involved in campaigning. In the name of management, BJP digressed from its ideology and did everything that is considered necessary to win elections. Organisational Secretaries, who have come into the BJP too indulged in unwarranted activities in the name of election management. The resentment among grassroots party workers towards proved costly to the BJP. Congress candidate Kantilal Bhuria’s worked quietly at the ground level while the BJP campaign was a superficial and loud one.

The anti-incumbency factor seems to have come into play in the State. The results of Ratlam Lok Sabha and Dewas Assembly bye-polls show that the BJP has got lesser votes in all the nine seats vis-à-vis the 2013 Assembly elections. In seven constituencies, it lost to Congress and in the remaining, two its victory margin has shrunk.

In the last Assembly elections, the BJP had annexed eight out of these nine Assembly constituencies. One seat was won by a BJP rebel as Independent candidate, who later re-joined the BJP.

It is said that resentment against the incumbent MLAs is the reason behind BJP’s defeat. BJP MLA of Alirajpur, Nagar Singh Chauhan won Assembly elections by 17,369 votes but this time BJP lost by 6,216 votes. Madho Singh Dabar from Jobat won by 11,051 votes but this time BJP lost by 21,838 votes. Shantilal Biswal won from Jhabua by 15,858 votes but this time BJP lost by 14,645 votes, Mathuralal won from Ratlam (Rural) by 26,969 votes but this time BJP lost by 5,008 votes, Sangeeta Charel had won from Sailana by 2,079 votes but BJP lost this time by 34,401 votes, Nirmala Bhuria, as BJP candidate from Petlawad, had won Assembly elections by 17,016 votes but this time she lost by 12,142 votes. Kal Singh Bhabar, who was a BJP rebel, won Thandla seat by 5,116 votes but this time BJP lost by 14,767 votes. Chetan Kashyap of BJP won from Ratlam (City) in the Assembly elections by 40,305 votes but this time BJP’s lead fell to 21,185 votes.

BJP may have won Dewas Assembly seat, but the victory margin has declined to 30,778 from 50,119 votes.

The Ratlam victory has obviously boosted the morale of the Congress. The greatest beneficiary of this victory is Arun Yadav, the present president of the MP Congress committee. Yadav was facing serious challenge from his opponents in the party. They were demanding his replacement for his dismal record as party president mainly because of his miserable failure on the electoral front. Barring one, Congress lost in all the Assembly bye-elections held during his tenure. The Ratlam victory has given him an upper hand and the threat of his imminent removal seem to have disappeared. (IPA Service)