Political relations between the Samajwadi Party and the RJD had strained after Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav pulled out of the JD(U)-RJD alliance. Nitish had worked hard to float the alliance with Mualayam as the leader of the mahagathbandhan. But within a fortnight of the formation of the front Mulayam not only severed his relation with it but he even floated a third front with NCP, Pappu Yadav’s party and other smaller groups as the allies of his Samajwadi party. As if this was not enough he started making personal attacks on Nitish. His attacks simply provided strength and teeth to the BJP campaign against Nitish.

The subjective condition in UP may appear to be feasible for floating the mahagathbandhan. But the fact remains that the caste combination and nature of the mandal politics in UP are similar to Bihar. It is worth recalling that even before becoming the member of the mahagathbandhan and accepting Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate, Lalu had said that he was ready “to gulp poison”. In UP the dominant Kurmis have a typical antagonistic relation with Yadavs. The dalits too are split.

Lalu risking his family ties has much wider implication. Mulayam deserting mahagathbandhan was viewed as a personal rebuff to Lalu. The situation has further turned worse with JD(U) of Nitish Kumar deciding to part company with the Samajwadi Party and support the Congress stand on GST in the Rajya Sabha. This is being interpreted as an open challenge to the leadership of Mulayam who was so far treated like a patriarch in the socialist circle.

True enough in the initial stage both Lalu and Nitish were skeptical of the Mulayam’s tirade against the mahagathbandhan. They were apprehensive of split in the Yadav rank. But just after the mahagathbandhan routed the BJP they gained confidence and Lalu announced that he would start an aggressive campaign against “divisive forces” in UP and his campaign would begin from Varanasi. It has wider connotation was evident from the comment of senior UP minister Shivpal Singh Yadav, who said, “We will welcome Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav as samdhi when he comes to Varanasi”. It obviously implied that Lalu was not welcomed as the politician.

Numerically the RJD of Lalu Yadav and JD(U) of Nitish may be insignificant forces in Uttar Pradesh but the fact is they wield considerable psychological and political influence on the OBC and dalits there. With the rout of BJP in Bihar, Nitish had emerged as a new political symbol for change. If the murmurings in the political circles are to be trusted even the BSP is not averse to have a relation with JD(U) and RJD. But she would be hesitant to associate with Congress.

Lalu’s move has tactical importance. Lalu’s campaign in UP will target Narendra Modi but the RJD chief will also try to project the mahagathbandhan as the only political alternative to the BJP for the 2017 Assembly elections. With Mulayam averse to entering into a coalition with the Congress, Lalu wants to send the message that the RJD, JD(U)-Congress tie is already in place. Little doubt Lalu’s campaign would inflict more damage to the Samajwadi Party as it has the potential to divide the Yadav votes.

Though Bihar has earned the dubious distinction of being the most caste ridden state the fact is casteism dictates the political discourse and line in UP. Like Bihar, in UP the caste is being used to promote the class interest. In 2012 Mayawati tried to bring together the dalits and Brahmins. But it failed. Mayawati’s sarvajan (inclusive) politics caused the BSP’s defeat in the 2012 assembly election. Inclusive politics created impression amongst dalits that Mayawati was giving more importance to Brahmins and upper castes. Sections of the Dalit community left the party and shifted their loyalty to the SP and also BJP ahead of the 2012 election

Nevertheless the results of the recently held panchayat elections send the message that BSP was on the comeback. Many BSP candidates won at the cost of the BJP and the SP. In Narendra Modi’s Varanasi candidates supported by the BJP could win only nine panchayat seats out of a total of 48. This win has boosted the morale of the BSP leadership Dalits are also skeptical of the Akhilesh government. Dalits are angry with the SP government’s decision to remove the provision in the Uttar Pradesh Zamindari Abolition and Land Reforms Act, 1950.

In this backdrop SP and BSP entering into an alliance is a distant reality. Mulayam is also unwilling to accept Congress as is partner. Obviously the Congress would have to rely on Lalu and Niish and also try to salvage its traditional support base of Brahmins, minorities and mahadalits.

Akhilesh Yadav has started talking of a Bihar-type Mahagathbandhan in the state to take on the BJP in the Assembly elections of 2017. However the political situations in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are different. While Nitish, despite serving two terms as chief minister, is quite popular among the voters, there is strong anti-incumbency against Akhilesh. While Nitish has the reputation of a good administrator, Akhilesh is yet to prove his administrative acumen.

The chances SP and BSP coming together are quite bleak. Even after 20 years Mayawati is yet to forget the nasty incident of humiliation and attack on her by Samajwadi Party workers at the VIP Guest House in Lucknow. Obviously floating of a Mini Gathbandhan, forget the Maha Gathbandhan, is a far-fetched idea. (IPA Service)