Stakes are high for the BJP in the coming assembly elections but, at the moment, the mood of the people appears against the saffron party, judging by results of election to Delhi and Bihar Assemblies. In Bihar the BJP put all its might and Prime Minister campaigned relentlessly but the party was trounced, contrary to expectations of its leaders. It was a big jolt and, evidently, rank and file of the party was demoralized.

In 2016 elections, the BJP hopes to oust the Congress from power in Assam. Congress and BJP are racing against each other to rope in student leaders of the state, the most sought-after for the election that is less than seven months away. Student organizations in the state have long served as nurseries for budding politicians. For the first time, however, their importance has reached unprecedented levels as hordes of student leaders, along with their supporters, are joining one party or the other almost every day. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has already got into his act. He has taken initiative to get the Congress on board an alliance with Asom Gan Parishad and the All India United Democratic Front led by Badruddin Ajmal.

JD(U) general secretary, K C Tyagi, said the onus of defeating the BJP was on the Congress. “As the biggest party in Assam, the Congress has the biggest responsibility for carrying others”, he said while pointing out that the JD(U) also had to “make sacrifices” in Bihar by giving away even seats held by it to new allies.

If former AASU president Shankar Prasad Rai and general secretary Tapan Gogoi joined BJP last month, another former general secretary of AASU's Guwahati unit Niren Deka joined Congress on Thursday. Last month, former president of Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad Monoj Barua joined BJP, while former president of All Adivasi Students' Association of Assam Rafael Kujur joined Congress.

The Congress, which has won three consecutive elections since 2001, claims it will make it fourth time in a row despite the BJP’s record-win in seven of the state’s 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. The BJP feels that the people of Assam desperately want a change.

The Congress has its problems. While incumbency – and with it the related allegations of corruption, misrule and internal bickering – is one, the steady rise of Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has already robbed the party of its traditional Muslim vote bank. It is now looking forward to a Bihar-type anti-BJP maha-alliance.

BJP has virtually no roots in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In WB, it will be again Marxists versus Mamata Banerjee with her Trinamool Congress firmly entrenched. The Congress may ultimately join the Mamata bandwagon. From all account Mamata is likely to romp home again with a comfortable majority.

In Kerala, there is complete polarization; one term the Congress wins and the other Left. The Left Democratic Front led by CPI(M) has made gains in the recent polls but the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) is determined to retain power.

Confident after its victory in Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) has resolved to replicate the state Grand Alliance model in five states that are headed for the assembly elections this year. The party decided to work for formation of a national alternative of like-minded parties to the ruling BJP-led NDA.

All political parties, national and regional, are hoping to reap a rich electoral harvest this year as five States go to the polls in 2016. The nature of electoral contests in different States, however, suggests it would be a mixed bag of results for the three main political forces, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress, and the regional parties.

The stakes for the regional parties seem to be much higher in the 2016 State elections. Since the last few decades the political arena of Tamil Nadu has been completely captured by regional parties with the AIADMK and the DMK in the lead. The 2016 Assembly elections are not going to be different. While it is difficult to predict the winner, one can say for sure that regional parties will rule the State for much more than the next five years.

After the Grand Alliance’s landslide victory in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party — which had pulled out of the JD(U)-led alliance just a few days after poll dates were announced in September — said it was “revising its strategy” vis-a-vis working with the alliance. “The Grand Alliance’s victory matters. Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) will decide the future strategy afresh soon, just wait,” UP minister and Mulayam’s brother Shivpal Yadav.said.

Irrespective of the poll outcome what is clear is Bihar elections results will make an impact on five upcoming assembly polls. (IPA Service)