The answer to this question will be available in the next few days. And, if the initial indications are anything to go by, the CPI(M) is unlikely to oblige the UDF.

The trap has come in the form of a petition the State Government filed in the Kerala High Court seeking an early hearing in the case questioning the CBI court’s decision in November 2013 to acquit former CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan and six others in the SNC Lavalin case.

With the High Court having found ‘some substance’ in the Government’s petition and scheduling the final hearing in the case in the last week of February, the Oommen Chandy government has managed to push the CPI(M), riding high on its victory in the local bodies elections, on to the backfoot.

The Government’s calculation is simple. It expects the hearing in the case to be over in a few days. The verdict could come towards the end of March or early April when the State will be in the thick of the crucial Assembly election battle. If the verdict goes in its favour, it will thwart Pinarayi’s ambition to become Chief Minister and shift the political momentum in UDF’s favour.

The timing of the petition is also significant. It has come on the day Vijayan has started his ‘Nava Kerala Yatra’ which seeks to neutralise KPCC president V M Sudheeran’s ‘Jana Raksha Yatra’(Save People Yatra). The CPI(M) yatra seeks to cash in on the stink of corruption emanating from the UDF Government and blunt the edge of the latter’s campaign that the CPI(M)-led LDF is anti-development. The CPI(M) yatra has launched a positive campaign with development as its main plank and to emphasise the point that development can be ushered in only in a corruption-free ambience. The UDF Government, ‘steeped in corruption’ is incapable of ensuring the development of the state, the CPI(M) argues.

The revival of the Lavalin case is also a deft attempt by the UDF to break the newfound unity in the CPI(M). By bringing back the Lavalin issue to the political centre-stage, the UDF thinks it can create a wedge between Pinarayi and VS Achuthanandan whose stand on the issue is at odds with that of the party. VS will be compelled to take a public stand against Vijayan, and that will be the end of the unity in the CPI(M). So goes the UDF reasoning. But the UDF leaders forget that in politics, two and two do not always add up to four.

In any case, State CPI(M) leaders seem aware of the trap set by the Government. There are signs that the party leaders, including VS may sidestep the political landmine planted by the UDF petition. In a positive message to the rank and file, VS attended the function marking the inauguration of Vijayan’s yatra. Much to the delight of the cadres and the relief of the leaders, VS also made a spirited speech attacking the UDF Government and the BJP, and wished Vijayan all success in his endeavour. He also scrupulously avoided any mention of the Lavalin issue and the government’s petition in his speech.

Reports have it that VS is not likely to oblige the UDF by taking a public stand against Pinarayi. True, his views on the subject are well known. But it must also be mentioned that, when the CBI discharged Vijayan from the case, VS welcomed it, saying that whatever he had said on the subject is a thing of the past. If VS sticks to that stand, the UDF leaders will end up with egg on their face. The political and electoral advantage they hope to gain from the revival of the Lavalin case may not materialise at all.

The Lavalin case pertains to a contract signed by the Kerala Government and the Canadian firm, SNC Lavalin in 1995 when Pinarayi Vijayan was the Electricity Minister in the EK Nayanar Government. The allegation is that the State exchequer lost Rs 86. 23 crore owing to a conspiracy between Vijayan and others. The contract was aimed at repairing and reviving Pallivasal, Sengulam and Panniyar hydroelectric projects. (IPA Service)