Several times during the past four years and more of its present tenure, the TMC has faced the possibility of a split within its ranks. TMC leaders and workers have been restive especially when the CBI probe into the Saradha chit fund scam put the party under pressure. But the party has staved off the dangers of a split every time.

And now, with only a few months to go for the 2016 Assembly elections, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems to have put her house in order.

The key to this has been the return and honourable rehabilitation within the ruling party of Mr. Mukul Roy, Ms Banerjee’s alter ego for long, who had suffered a temporary eclipse of sorts during the past 12 months.

With all indications in their favour, no wonder the ruling party exudes confidence from top to bottom. In keeping her flock together, Ms Banerjee has made sure that it will certainly the highest number of seats in the state Assembly. Her followers, from Ministers to district leaders, do not rule out the possibility of winning in excess of 200 seats out of 294.

The Chief Minister has taken no chances. She is keen on an alliance with the state Congress, despite an awareness of the TMC’s own strength. Party leaders point to her cordial relationship with the Congress President Mrs Sonia Gandhi. The recent unscheduled visit by Mr. Sushil K. Shinde, Congress leader and former Minister of the UPA, to Kolkata and his 45 meeting with her is, for most observers, a sure sign that seat adjustments between the two parties are being discussed.

They point out that the Congress central leadership, well aware that the rank and file within the Bengal unit is keen to fight the TMC in alliance with the Left parties, have not yet taken a decision. Congress Vice President Mr Rahul Gandhi keeps saying enigmatically that’ the views of the state unit would be given priority.’

This is not a new stance for Mr. Gandhi. He favours the idea of the Congress going it alone in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere, instead of riding piggyback on a stronger regional party for the sake of a few Assembly seats.

However, the happy experience of the Congress winning around 30-odd seats in the Bihar Assembly in alliance with the RJD and the JD(U), has induced other thoughts within the High Command. With its pathetic tally of only 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, the party is desperately seeking respectability in numbers elsewhere.

This could be ensured by aligning with the TMC in Bengal. Ms. Banerjee according to TMC insiders, has made an initial offer to the Congress of around 35 seats. But the figure remains negotiable. it is presumed by observers that Mr. Shinde might have discussed this and related issues with Ms Banerjee.

The Congress-TMC talks are on at the highest level. The silence of president Mrs. Sonia Gandhi on the subject, despite their urging for a pro-left alliance, leaves the majority of Congressmen somewhat worried in Bengal.

The initiative for a Congress-Left Front (LF) alliance in Bengal came from the CPI(M) state unit. During its protest rallies and meetings, leaders like former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and CPI(M) State Secretary Suryakanta Mishra pressed the Congress for a clear answer as to whether the party would fight the TMC in an alliance with the LF or not. Under pressure, the state and central Congress could only reply that the matter was under consideration and a decision would be announced at the right time.

This apparent lack of an immediate commitment from the Congress generated a similar backtracking within the CPI(M). The party’s Delhi-based central leadership announced that while the CPI(M) was keen for a broad pro-people alliance that could include the Congress in Bengal, for the restoration of democracy, it had not yet taken a final decision.

Obviously, the Tripura, Kerala and other units were wary of an alliance with the Congress which was their strongest political opposition. Until recently, this was true of Bengal as well!

The question arises, given the TMC”s present clout, why is Ms Banerjee still trying to go in for an alliance with the Congress. It has no choice. The TMC cannot align itself either with the LF or the BJP. The TMC had won around 39 per cent of the popular vote in the 2011 Assembly polls. Most observers see that as the last fairly fought elections in the state. During all following elections, whether panchayat or urban civic polls, the TMC’s muscle power helped by an inactive administration had been too evident. Through intimidation, booth capturing, and other tactics, the party could win in excess of 50 per cent of aggregate votes in some cases. But even TMC leaders now privately admit, such figures may not be very reliable.

Since the Congress has managed to retain its present level of about 10 per cent of the aggregate vote, Ms Banerjee feels that if this chunk of vote is added to the TMC’s tally, victory would be ensured, as had happened in 2011 Assembly polls. Even if the Left increased its vote share to around 35 per cent or so, it could never win the polls, with the BJP expected to win around 10 per cent of the aggregate vote.

The choice would a hard one for the Congress, both at the state and the central levels. As veteran state leaders argue, embracing the TMC again would be more of a bear hug that would finish the state unit. Going with the Left on the other hand, would be far less risky.

Among other positives going for the TMC is the continuing trend of lower level workers from all opposition parties including the Left still joining the TMC ranks. This can only weaken the overall opposition in the state. And by winning over Mr. Roy her former trusted lieutenant back into the TMC fold, Ms. Banerjee has effectively ensured that the present factionalism and dissidence within the party, would be checked effectively. Mr. Roy knows more about the TMC’s mass organisations in detail than Ms Banerjee herself.

Therefore, Ms. Banerjee is leaving no stone unturned to ensure that her party is voted back to power later this year. So far she seems to be succeeding, even as the opposition tries to evolve en effective counter strategy. (IPA Service)