Will these developments provide a breakthrough for reviving peace moves? Will the peace formulas which had taken an advanced form in 2007 during the rules of the former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and Manmohan Singh-led UPA government's first tenure also become the basis for reviving the peace moves? There are positive signs of this happening.

The first sign of this was Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram recently hinting that the government wanted to discuss Kashmir with the concerned parties outside the glare of media. This was followed by track II efforts leading to Indian and Pakistani officials meeting in Bangkok and talks between officials with a section of the Hurriyat Conference in New Delhi. Later, former Hurriyat chairman Prof. Abdul Gani Bhatt said his proposal of an alliance between separatists and mainstream political parties to move forward towards a resolution of the Kashmir problem was supported by Pakistan. His suggestion of separatist-mainstream alliance, however, created a furore in Pakistan and in the separatist ranks. A few days later, Hurriyat Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq disclosed that a “New Delhi-Srinagar agreement with Pakistan on board is one of the key objectives of the ongoing Tack II initiatives between India and Pakistan and the “quiet” dialogue between the Centre and Hurriyat.”

Despite the optimistic pronouncements that “things are happening and various proposals are being discussed”, no concrete proposal has so far emerged from official quarters in New Delhi and Islamabad. This is in sharp contrast to the 2007 happenings when highest-level contacts had resulted in concrete proposals for a solution. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had stated that “borders cannot be changed but they can be made irrelevant and LoC can become the 'line of peace.' ”. Pervez Musharraf was more specific. He said “given India's sensitivities of its secular credentials a solution to the Kashmir issue cannot be on a religious basis. Instead, it could be on a “people's basis, a regional basis”. A solution had to be found within India's stand of “no redrawing of borders, Pakistan's stand of LoC cannot be a permanent border and boundaries becoming irrelevant. They are conflicting statements. The solution exactly lies somewhere in a compromise of the three,” he said.

Although there is no indication yet whether the broad contours of the 2007 formula also form the basis of the current peace moves, the emerging situation needs to be seen in the backdrop of the qualitative changes taking place in Pakistan since 2007. Musharraf has gone. A democratically elected government, though torn by inter-party squabbles and deep cleavage between President Asaf Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, is in power. Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Kiyani, a former protégé of Musharraf who was earlier seen as purely a professional Army chief not harbouring any ambition seems to be emerging as a force to be reckoned with. Whether under US pressure or Pakistan Army's ongoing fight against Pakistani Taliban, the level of Army's abetment of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir has come down. No doubt, some elements of the Army and ISI continue to promote terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. But Indian security forces stepped up anti-terrorism campaigns and the disillusioned people's longing for peace have resulted in a sharp decline in terrorism.

The moves to revive peace talks are welcome. But whatever their course and outcome India cannot afford to be complacent for meeting any eventuality in view of the history of terrorism in the region and the role Pakistani Army and the government played in sabotaging the past peace talks.

It first started with the CIA-ISI-backed terrorism in Punjab in the eighties. It was followed by their propping up jihadis against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and establishing a pro-Pak Taliban government there. Then it was the turn of Jammu and Kashmir. They started sending terrorists and jihadis to play havoc in the peaceful state. Then the terrorist operations were extended to other parts of India.

India and Pakistan were very near to resolving the Kashmir issue in 1999 after Atal Behari Vajpayee's historic bus visit to Lahore in February 1999 and his talks with Nawaz Sharif. But Pervez Musharraf's Kargil misadventure buried hopes of resolving the issue. Two years later, efforts were again made to find a solution. But then came the attack on Parliament on December 13, 2001. An angry India sent its Army to Pakistani borders. A nervous Musharraf and global intervention pulled back the two countries from the brink of war. This coupled with USA's 9/11 forced Musharraf to declare in 2004 that Pakistan territory would never be allowed to be used for terrorist activities in India.

USA's 9/11 and the current spate of terror attacks in Pakistan must have made both realise that they were riding a tiger not knowing how to get off without being eaten. The peace moves which seem to be yielding results in 2007, however, were again sabotaged by the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attack. Pakistan's chaotic internal situation which threatens even its survival and the USA's priorities to fight Taliban in Afghanistan have now again prompted the USA to play a behind-the-scene role in reviving the peace talks. While Pakistan's successive rulers have allowed the country to virtually become a US colony, the latter has also gained leverage in India's corridors of power.

A positive outcome of the revived peace talks including a solution of Kashmir problem, as Manmohan Singh has said, depends on Pakistan punishing the perpetrators of Mumbai terror and stopping use of its territory for terror attacks in India. It would be suicidal for Pakistan if its rulers adopt a selective approach to fight terrorists in Pakistan but promoting it elsewhere. They must heed the Indian Prime Minister's warning who recently quoted an Urdu couplet “Lamhon Ne Khata Ki, Sadiyon Ne Saza Pai. (Faults of moments made centuries to suffer). (IPA Service)