There can be no question that in terms of military power and financial strength, China remains far ahead. But even as the top dog in the region, China is not having things all its own way. China’s presence in South Asia, theoretically India’s backyard, is very strong and still growing. However, India is also making its presence felt in Southeast Asia, where China’s domination cannot be questioned.

India is setting up a satellite tracking station at Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), according to officials in Delhi, will spend around $23 million for the project. Vietnamese authorities maintain that the facility is being established to monitor climate conditions and patterns to achieve better weather forecasts to help agriculture, as well as increase and speed up communication, through advanced data analysis.

Space researchers point out what has been left unsaid: it will also enable Vietnam to monitor Chinese manoeuvres, its naval and other movements in the highly sensitive South China sea and adjacent areas. Closer interaction between India and Vietnam is not appreciated in Beijing. It had earlier urged upon India not to get involved with developments that did not concern it directly. India has not responded, keeping in mind China’s consistent support of Pakistan in South Asia without much appreciation of New Delhi’s requirements or sensitivities.

India has made its sympathies clear by aligning with smaller SE Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines over what they regard as China’s aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. It has also participated in joint naval exercises with the US in recent times, adding to China’s worries.

According to reports, scientists and technical personnel from Vietnam will be trained by India in the interpretation, analysis and processing of technical data. In recent times, Vietnamese naval cadre has been trained by Indians in deep-sea operations and submarine-related exercises.

Its opponents claim that Beijing regards the South China Sea region as a Chinese lake, therefore tensions between it and its smaller neighbours have brought Vietnam and India closer. Both countries are alarmed by China’s recent manoeuvres which they feel are aggressive. China is engaged in a bitter dispute with Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries over maritime limits, rights of naval and international merchant shipping, as well as the right to carry out undersea explorations in the fuel-rich waters.

This brings it into direct conflict with most countries with major shipping interests like the US and Japan, in the East China Sea. They oppose what they consider China’s attempts to redraw existing shipping routes which involve annual global trade amounting to trillions of dollars.

It has stopped Vietnam from exploring its own offshore waters physically, by cutting wires and cables of vessels engaged in the work. It has urged upon the ONGC not to explore off the Vietnamese coast because of its ongoing dispute with others over maritime limits and rights.

Further, China’s moves to create new settlements on small islands in the region along with naval facilities have aroused strong suspicions among its regional neighbours. They fear that these will eventually turn into new naval bases. It is not Vietnam alone. The Philippines and China have remained locked in a long, bitter battle over the control and rights of each country on nearby islands and their offshore limits. And it is no different between China and Japan in East China Sea and the Senkaku islands.

It is not surprising that the smaller countries have joined Japan, India and the US to help them assert their legitimate maritime rights as defined by international laws and conventions of shipping. They have also approached the United Nations, but the refusal of China to permit any ‘third party intervention’ has complicated matters. There are also provisions in the existing Defence treaties between the US and Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan, which spell out Washington’s support to each country if it is attacked militarily by others.

Tension has been reported during Naval exercises conducted by China and Japan on the East China Sea. Only the US has sent its ships occasionally to patrol the area, drawing sharp protests from China, although Washington has not changed its ways.

In the process, a parallel has opened up in SE Asia with India becoming more firmly allied than ever before with Vietnam – a nation with which the Chinese have never felt comfortable, not least because Vietnam has not flinched from confronting the Chinese militarily, given the long troubled history between the two countries.

India can now play what is diplomatically described as its Vietnam card in SE Asia every bit as effectively as China plays its Pakistan card in South Asia. Just as China has shown scant respect for Indian concerns regarding its ties with Pakistan, a country it helped acquire nuclear weapons, India may repay the compliment by ignoring Chinese concerns over the new alignments between New Delhi and other SE Asian capitals.

However, officially China has issued a low key response, with its Defence authorities pointing out that such a satellite tracking centre in Vietnam would have no military significance whatsoever. This may well be a case of making a virtue out of necessity, not something that Beijing does very often. There is also an indication that for all its posturing, China really seeks to settle its disputes through bilateral dialogue.

Meanwhile India is considering the establishment of a naval base in Vietnam. The objective: to enable the Indian Navy to track the movements of all vessels passing through the South China sea to the Indian ocean. This could well be in response to China’s strong naval presence in Myanmar, not too far from the Andaman islands.

Despite all the apparent bonhomie that exists between Mr, Modi, Indian Prime Minister and Mr. Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, it is highly unlikely that India would stop firming up its ties with Viet Nam and other countries just because China may not be pleased.

A brief mention of the close symbiotic ties between China and Pakistan becomes inevitable in this context. Only18 months ago, Pakistan had opposed an Indian proposal at a SAARC gathering aimed at helping help other members of the group to put up their satellites using the facilities and expertise of the ISRO. Agencies from Europe and the US have involved the ISRO in certain operations on occasions.

But while Pakistan put up a satellite of its own, it used Chinese, not Indian, assistance. So did the Sri Lankans, who have also allowed China impressive port facilities. Bangladesh is currently believed to be considering the Indian offer seriously. Earlier, it concluded an agreement costing taka 825 crore with an American company to put up a satellite of its own. Some 70 countries now own satellites operating in outer space.

Pakistan had also refused to join a proposal to link SAARC members through railway and road agreements, to facilitate and ease the movement of goods and traffic, seeking to increase regional trade and help local economies.

However, India has partially checkmated the Pakistani move by working out the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) Road transport agreement in the East, which goes into effect in a few weeks’ time, to bring about a seamless movement of goods and passengers between these countries. Myanmar and Thailand may also be linked with the BBIN in future.

It is suspected that Pakistan opposed the setting up of similar regional traffic connectivity because it would have meant a setback for the impressive China-sponsored new Silk Road project in South Asia.

Not surprisingly, Pakistanis not keen to work together with the ISRO either. It expressed its concerns at the last SAARC meet that satellites put up through the ISRO may lead to India gaining precious information and data that could be used militarily. Fortunately, other SAARC members reacted differently. Afghanistan and Sri Lanka expressed interest in the offer, along with Bangladesh. The implementation of the BBIN agreement would prove to be a big step forward by India in its strategic/diplomatic LOOK EAST initiative. (IPA Service)