Prevailing ground realities and the emerging religio-political and governance trends, however, can indicate which way the political and electoral winds are blowing.

Take Punjab’s mainstream political parties. The Congress which appeared to be heading for a split in Punjab a few weeks back has closed its ranks. The party’s central leadership has also been able to silence some of its senior leaders who had opposed the reversal of its decision to contest the upcoming Khadoor Sahib Assembly by-election. The decision to opt out of the by-election seems to be a part of the party’s strategy, apparently the brain child of a genius strategist, to confront the Akali Dal in 2017 polls. Assembly by-polls are usually won by ruling parties by misusing money power and official machinery. Now when, except some non-descript Independents, there is no candidate of any opposition party in the field, the Akali candidate will have a win albeit lusterless. The polling percentage is likely to be extremely low which would deprive the political advantage the ruling party would, otherwise, have claimed had there been an Opposition candidate.

The image of the revamped Congress which had faced worst debacle in the Lok Sahha elections has also lately shown signs of improvement following its noticeable gains in Bihar Assembly poll and in by-elections and local body elections of some states.

On the other hand, unpopularity graph of the Akali Dal and the state government, generated by the intense anti-incumbency, poor governance and intra-party dissenting voices have dented the Akali Dal’s image and credibility. Among the biggest factors which have given a boost to the anti-incumbency sentiment are the ruling alliance’s multi-dimensional failures on financial and law and order fronts and the crisis in the farm sector which is forcing an increasing number of farmers, the Akali Dal’s main support base, commit suicide.

These factors coupled with the virtually demised Modi wave have also deeply dented the political clout of the ruling alliance’s junior partner BJP.

Notwithstanding the contrary claims of the government, Punjab’s fiscal health has long been in the ICU. The cash-starved government’s burgeoning debt burden has touched Rs.1.25 lakh crore. There has been a sharp slowdown in revenue growth. Pre-election populist measures and sops have emptied the state’s treasury. Deepened financial crisis has been leading to long delays in paying salaries, pensions and other dues of many sections of the employees forcing them to organize protests against the government.

The Badals had perennially been criticizing the UPA government for discriminating against Punjab by not providing funds for overcoming its financial problems. But now they just keep meekly reminding the Badal’s ‘friend’ prime minister Modi to fulfill his promise of granting special economic package to help the state to overcome its acute financial crisis. But there has been no positive response so far from the Modi government.

The most worrisome aspect of the prevailing state of affairs is the use of religion and state’s resources by the top Akali brass for the party’s political objectives under the cover of “promoting communal harmony”. Two instances:

In an attempt to neutralize the strong anti-party sentiment among the Sikhs generated by the desecration of Guru Granth Sahib and the Sarbat Khalsa, Punjab government launched “Mukh Mantri Tirath Yatra” (free pilgrimage scheme) which will cost the state exchequer over Rs. 46 crore. Taking suomoto notice of the matter, the High Court last week made sarcastic comments telling the government “You don’t have money for routine expenses and you have brought in this pilgrimage scheme. For developmental works, you are seeking loans and for freebies you have consolidated funds.” The High Court has sought information about the state’s fiscal health.

The second case of the government exploiting religious sentiments for political objectives is the chief minister’s recent announcement to set up a Rs.5 crore Cow Memorial in Mansa district while it could spare only Rs.100 per winter uniform (!) for only 50 per cent of the State’s school students.

The decision of the Aam Aadmi Party which had demonstrated its strong presence in Punjab in 2014 Lok Sabha elections by winning four seats to contest the 2017 assembly elections will make it a three-cornered battle. Though AAP’s resurgence in Punjab has caused some concern among the mainstream contenders for power- Akali Dal and Congress, they can draw consolation from the splits in AAP and Arvind Kejriwal government’s lackluster performance.

Apart from the Akali-BJP government’s faulty functioning, what will pose a real challenge to the ruling alliance partners in 2017 is the possibility of a formation of Bihar-like Mahagathbandan. The process for its formation has already begun with the merger of Manpreet Singh Badal’s Peoples Party in the Congress. The possibility of some other splinter Akali outfits like the Longowal Akali Dal merging in the Congress is also not ruled out. Political circles are also abuzz with reports about the BSP also thinking of having some sort of electoral tie-up with the proposed united front. Though all these are marginalized political outfits, yet in case of their joining hands, they have the potential of eroding the Akali Dal’s support base.

Although the Left parties which have some pockets of influence, particularly in the Akali Dal’s stronghold Malwa region, have announced that they would not have an alliance with the Congress, yet there is possibility of their having an understanding with the party.

The Akali-BJP alliance is heading for challenging times. The above perceptions do not rule out the possibility of Bihar being repeated in Punjab in 2017. (IPA Service)