That conclusion is unavoidable if the initial response of the two dominant groups in the Congress in the State to his appeal to sink their differences and put up a united fight in the upcoming Assembly elections is any guide.

In his interaction with the State Congress leaders and while addressing the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) meeting, Mr. Gandhi had cautioned them against infighting. “The CPI(M) cannot defeat Congress in Kerala. Only Congressmen can defeat Congress,” he said in a lighter vain. “Therefore, I would appeal to all the senior Congress leaders, who are all highly talented, to fight the elections in a united manner. You can resume your fights after that, and I personally would listen to all your grievances,” said Mr Gandhi.

Will the message go home? Are the warring Congress groups in a mood to listen to Rahul’s advice? The answer to the question is a resounding ‘No’. The Congress leaders would continue to function as groups and not as a cohesive party determined to win the electoral battle. That much is clear from the attitude of both the A group led by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and the I group headed by Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala.

Leaders belonging to the groups have reiterated their known stands in their interaction with AICC leader in charge of the Kerala elections, Ghulam Nabi Azad, who is in Kerala to guage the mood in the party.

The A group leaders, for instance, have sought to impress upon Azad the need to fight the elections under the leadership of Oommen Chandy. Their contention is that the performance of the Chandy Government would offset the impact of the solar and bar bribery scams roiling the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) Government.

The I group leaders, however, do not agree with this assessment. They have told Azad that the twin scams have exacted a heavy toll on the image and credibility of the Chandy Government. Fighting the elections under the leadership of Chandy would be a disaster. That has been their common refrain.

In other words, the I group leaders have made their intentions very clear. They won’t shy away from the idea of a change in leadership before the elections.

It is clear from the hardening stance of the I group that there would be hard bargaining in the matter of candidate selection and for winning seats. Their preference for Chennithala as the leader is evident, too.

The ball is now in the court of the party High command. The final decision would depend a lot on the report Ghulam Nabi would present to the High Command.

And it is also clear that Azad would base his report on the assessment of senior Congress leader from the State A K Antony in this regard. And Antony has not minced words, for once. He has made it clear that the time when people voted for party symbols was long past. Winnability and acceptability should be the criteria for selecting candidates. That has been his suggestion.

If that criterion is strictly followed, then many sitting Congress MLAs would lose their seats. Will the dominant groups put up with it and resign themselves to their being sidelined? Highly unlikely.

That is exactly why the conclusion that the Rahul Mission has ended in failure is inescapable.

In a way, it is a golden opportunity for the High Command to recover lost ground to some extent. But the million dollar question is: Does it have the courage to strictly apply the Antony formula in candidate selection, and enforce discipline? The prospects of the Congress hinge, to a great extent, on the response of the High Command to this crucial issue.

Meanwhile, the High Comand has given a hint of its mind by asking KPCC chief V M Sudheeran also to contest this time. Are the Chandys and Chennithalas listening? (IPA Service)